RECENT EPISODES
Wed 23 SeptEnergy Shock and Rate Hikes Could Cause a 2022 Style Bear Market | Eric Wallerstein | Clocktower GroupIn this episode, Eric Wallerstein discusses the potential for a bear market reminiscent of 2022, driven by energy shocks and rising interest rates. He highlights a significant disconnect between the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and market perceptions, raising concerns about economic stability. Wallerstein warns of a technical recession due to insufficient growth inputs and emphasizes the broader implications of higher energy prices on food and manufacturing, while also addressing geopolitical tensions and their impact on global markets.Sun 20 SeptOutlook on 5 Key Commodities: Metals Bull Market is Just Getting Started (Gold, Copper, & Uranium) | Jérémie Boyer | AurelionIn this episode, Jérémie Boyer from Aurelion shares a bullish outlook on key commodities, particularly gold, which he predicts could soar to 5,000 USD per ounce due to increased central bank purchases, especially from China. He also highlights the long-term demand for copper driven by advancements in AI and data centers, while emphasizing the emerging uranium bull market fueled by new nuclear power plants. Boyer discusses Aurelion's strategic portfolio positioning and the potential impacts of geopolitical factors on commodity prices.Sat 19 SeptWhy The 30-Year Treasury Lost Its Biggest Buyers | David Busch on Why High Yields Are Attractive Right NowIn this episode, David Busch delves into the shifting landscape of the Treasury market, highlighting why the 30-year Treasury is losing its biggest buyers, such as insurance companies and pension plans. He discusses the rising yields, which have made fixed income investments more attractive compared to equities, and the impact of alternative investments like private credit. Busch also emphasizes the importance of a balanced investment strategy focused on shorter-duration Treasuries amid these changing dynamics.Wed 16 SeptHawks Take Flight | Joseph Wang on Fed’s Hawkish Hike and Warsh’s GameplanIn this episode, Joseph Wang analyzes the Federal Reserve's recent hawkish interest rate hike, suggesting it signals the start of a new hiking cycle with at least two more increases expected. He discusses the impact of geopolitical events on inflation and the current state of the housing market, predicting a future decrease in mortgage rates.Sun 13 SeptHunting for Value in Mining Stocks Amid Soaring Metals Prices | Freddy Brick | Muddy Waters CapitalIn this episode, Freddy Brick from Muddy Waters Capital explores the current dynamics of mining stocks amid soaring metals prices. He discusses the challenges faced by the junior mining sector, including significant drawdowns and reduced capital flows, while emphasizing the search for undervalued assets capable of profitable production. Brick also highlights the importance of strong management teams and the potential for mergers and acquisitions, cautioning against overpaying and the risks of permanent capital impairment in this volatile market.Fri 11 SeptWhy Farmland With Centuries of Water Is the Ultimate Scarce Asset | John Farris of LandFund Partners on Super El Niño, Food Security, and the Sources of Alpha in FarmlandIn this episode, John Farris of LandFund Partners explores the critical importance of irrigated farmland with reliable water sources as a scarce asset in the face of rising global food demand and climate challenges. He discusses the implications of Super El Niño on food security, particularly the anticipated impacts on rice production and overall supply chains.Sun 6 SeptWhat Actually Happens When a Life Insurer Fails (It's Worse Than a Bank) | Pranjal Drall and Andrew Granato on How Private Equity Turned Life Insurance Into a Taxpayer BackstopIn this episode, Pranjal Drall and Andrew Granato explore the alarming implications of life insurer failures, emphasizing that the current system places taxpayers at risk as private equity increasingly dominates the industry. With private equity ownership skyrocketing to around $700 billion, the shift towards riskier assets raises concerns about the stability of life insurers and the adequacy of existing regulatory frameworks. The discussion highlights the fragmented insolvency processes and the potential for significant financial burdens on policyholders and taxpayers alike.Thu 3 Sept“I’m Insanely Bullish on Bonds” | Jared Dillian on Copper, Bonds, Semis, and The Awesome PortfolioIn this episode, Jared Dillian shares his bullish perspective on bonds, emphasizing their current yields as a prime investment opportunity amid a risk-off environment. He discusses the manageable inflation levels and critiques the prevailing narrative around rising bond yields. Dillian also analyzes the semiconductor market's recent bottom and expresses caution about the overly optimistic sentiment surrounding copper, while advocating for a diversified investment strategy he calls the "awesome portfolio," which balances stocks, bonds, and precious metals.Mon 31 AugThe Certainty Premium: What’s Driving the Tech Sector Divergence? | Jeff KellerIn this episode, Jeff Keller delves into the tech sector's divergence, highlighting how long-term uncertainty is creating a premium on short-term certainty. He discusses the contrasting financial analysis and optimism in Silicon Valley, with a notable 20% increase in software and services, while semiconductor stocks face challenges. Keller warns against extrapolating short-term trends and emphasizes the evolving hyperscaler model amid rising competition, suggesting that cautious investment strategies may be necessary in the current market landscape.Wed 26 AugThe Commodity Bull Market Is Broadening | Jim Wiederhold on Copper, Grains, and Bloomberg Commodity IndexIn this episode, Jim Wiederhold delves into the expanding commodity bull market, focusing on the rising demand for copper driven by the energy transition and data center growth. He discusses the impact of weather-related disruptions on copper supply and highlights significant price increases in agricultural commodities like wheat and soybean oil due to crop challenges. Wiederhold also emphasizes the growing institutional interest in commodities as a diversification strategy amid geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic shifts.Wed 26 AugTime to Reduce Equity Risk: Why Underappreciated Macro Risks Could Derail the Bull Market | Warren PiesIn this episode, Warren Pies delves into the underappreciated macro risks that could threaten the current bull market, particularly following a strong earnings season. He highlights the Fed's shifting stance on rate hikes amid rising inflation pressures and the implications for tech and semiconductor sectors. Pies warns that without a broadening of leadership in these areas, the market may struggle to maintain its upward trajectory, emphasizing the need for investors to reassess their risk exposure.Mon 24 AugIs Private Equity Broken? Why the Buyside’s Problems Are Making 2026 “The Year of the Banker” | High Yield HarryIn this episode of High Yield Harry, the discussion centers on the challenges facing private equity and private credit, predicting that 2026 will be "The Year of the Banker." With rising redemption requests and concerns over compensation sustainability, limited partners are increasingly worried about the state of these markets.Thu 20 AugWhy Bessent Blinked | Luke Gromen on Doubling of Treasury Buyback Plan to Tame Long-End YieldsLuke Gromen argues that the US attack on Iran broke the Treasury market, driving the 10-year yield from 3.94 percent to nearly 4.74 percent by August 18, 2026, before Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the buyback program targeting the 10-year to 30-year sector the following day.Tue 18 AugEx-Goya COO on the $1.4 Trillion Family Business Opportunity in Three Consumer Sectors | Andy UnanueAndy Unanue, former COO of Goya Foods and founder of AUA Private Equity Partners, explains how his family business background shaped a strategy targeting lower middle market family-run companies across food, beverage, pet wellness, and co-manufacturing, a combined addressable market AUA sizes at $1.3 to $1.4 trillion.Sun 16 AugRobin Wigglesworth on Hyperscalers' 1.5 Trillion of Off-Balance Sheet Liabilities, Private Credit, and His Book "A Fabulous Debt"Robin Wigglesworth explains that hyperscalers now carry roughly 1.5 trillion dollars in off-balance sheet lease obligations and a separate 1.5 trillion in purchase commitments for chips, power, and equipment, with Google alone accounting for approximately 800 billion of the latter figure.Wed 12 AugMilton Berg: I Have Evidence Market Has Likely Bottomed | Why Milton’s Long Semis, Korea, Nasdaq, and More (With Caveats), and Why He Thinks Gold has made a Multi-year TopMilton Berg describes covering his shorts on July 29th and 30th and moving to roughly 100% long across multiple indices, with his largest positions in SPY at 50%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index at 20%, and Nasdaq 100 at 10%, plus a Korea allocation via EWY tied to the KOSPI's semiconductor-heavy composition. His conviction rests on the KOSPI falling 43.93% in 27 days, a positive S&P divergence against its June low, and a pre-identified cycle turning point.Fri 7 AugMisunderstood Stocks in Data Center Power, Cybersecurity, and Payments | Dean & Deiya PernasDean and Deiya Pernas of Pernas Research, which claims an audited track record of over 1300 percent gross returns since 2017, walk through what they see as the most misunderstood opportunities in data center power, cybersecurity, and cross-border payments.Tue 4 AugVictor Haghani on Death of Random Walk, and Passive, Buybacks, and LTCMVictor Haghani discusses his paper "Who Killed the Random Walk," accepted into the Journal of Investment Management, which builds a multi-agent model reproducing excess volatility, momentum, and market booms and busts. He argues that passive asset allocation, meaning fixed allocations like 60/40 regardless of conditions, drives these distortions and has already produced a boom without the bust.Sun 2 AugWhy Macro is “Pretty Risk-On” for Equities | Tian Yang of Variant PerceptionTian Yang of Variant Perception explains why his firm's macro indicators point to a risk-on regime for equities over a three-to-six-month horizon, with US real GDP near two percent, credit spreads in a normal range, and broadening breadth inconsistent with net money leaving markets.Wed 29 JulMum’s The Word: Kathryn Rooney Vera on Fed’s Second Meeting under Kevin Warsh, Plus Earnings Breakdown (Live Replay)Kathryn Rooney Vera correctly called the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates at its second meeting under Kevin Warsh, against market odds she put near 30 percent for a hike, and found Warsh's press conference internally contradictory given his stated laissez-faire philosophy. Her base case is one hike in December and one to two more the following year, with inflation expected to miss the 2 percent target for two years running.Tue 28 JulLuke Gromen: Yield Curve Control is the Only Way to Stop a Global Bond CrisisLuke Gromen makes the case that the US bond market is facing a structural crisis driven by over one hundred trillion dollars in off-balance-sheet entitlement liabilities now coming due as boomers retire, pushing the combined ratio of interest expense, entitlements, and veterans benefits to roughly 102 to 104 percent of federal receipts.Sun 26 JulDebt Service Coverage in Private Markets Is Improving, Actually | Nicholas BrooksNicholas Brooks, head of research and investment strategy at ICG, which manages over 126 billion dollars, pushes back against claims that a private credit crisis is nearly inevitable, pointing to US interest coverage ratios that have actually risen since 2024 and corporate debt levels that are flat to down since 2008 as private credit replaced rather than supplemented bank lending.Wed 22 JulInterest Rates to 10%: Why the Treasury Market is the Real Speculative Bubble (Not AI) | Russell ClarkRussell Clark makes the case that US Treasury bonds, not AI stocks, represent the defining speculative bubble of this era, with the 10-year yield ultimately heading to 10 percent, a figure he derives by combining roughly 7 percent wage inflation needed to restore housing affordability for younger workers with a 3 percent real rate required to keep capital out of real assets.Mon 20 JulNick Nemeth: Private Credit Will Blow-up Insurance System | Immense Leverage, Shaky Loans, and Retirement System That Actually Does Have Run Risk (via Surrenders)Nick Nemeth makes the case that private credit concentrated inside insurance company balance sheets is the most dangerous financial vulnerability in the current cycle, with roughly one trillion dollars of private credit sitting on ten trillion dollars in total insurance assets, a system 150 percent the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.Thu 16 JulTurbo Charged Trend Following: Why Capturing the Market’s Biggest Trends Means Embracing High Volatility | Moritz Seibert & Moritz Heiden | Takahe CapitalTakahe Capital runs trend following at annualized volatility of 25 to 30 percent, two to three times the institutional norm, deliberately accepting a low Sharpe ratio to maximize trend capture across roughly 100 markets spanning commodities, equities, rates, FX, and petroleum. The episode centers on the strategic tension between Donchian channel approaches that let winners grow and dynamic volatility targeting that reduces winning positions, which Takahe treats as a hidden counter-trend trade.Tue 14 JulThe Semiconductor Earnings Boom Is Just Getting Started | Ben Pouladian on why AI is Real, Nvidia is Mispriced, and Capacitors Are OverratedBen Pouladian makes the case that Nvidia is not in a bubble, pointing to revenue growth from roughly 27 billion dollars in 2023 to 250 billion dollars over the last twelve months and a current forward multiple below its own five to ten year historical average, which he reads as the market pricing in margin compression rather than irrational exuberance.Tue 7 JulBreaking Down the Multi-Manager Playbook: How This $19B CIO Thinks About Alpha | Sean McGould | The Lighthouse GroupSean McGould, CIO of Lighthouse Group, a roughly 19 billion dollar multi-manager hedge fund, explains how he constructs a portfolio targeting one hundred uncorrelated return streams across global equities, event-driven strategies, and liquid macro while avoiding private markets to preserve liquidity. He details how factor exposure hidden inside apparently market-neutral books, such as a concentrated long AI position hedged against short industrials, represents unacceptable concentration risk.Sun 5 JulThe Ultimate Playbook for Reducing The Fed’s Balance Sheet | Professor Darrell Duffie on 4 Tools For Federal Reserve To Shrink Reserve Demand In Banking SystemStanford professor Darrell Duffie argues the Federal Reserve's roughly 6.5 trillion dollar balance sheet is best analyzed from the liability side, where the 3 trillion in commercial bank reserve balances represents the primary reduction lever.Sat 4 JulThe Real Estate Cycle Is Turning | Josh Pristaw on The New Cycle in Real Estate, Opportunity in Senior Living, Why AI Data Centers Are Too Big For Most InvestorsJosh Pristaw, Managing Director and President of Clarion Partners, which manages over 70 billion dollars in real estate assets, makes the case that 2026 marks the start of a new real estate cycle, supported by seven consecutive quarters of positive private market returns and Clarion's best new leasing quarter in its 44-year history at roughly 8 million square feet.Thu 2 JulWhat If It’s Still Early? | Erik YWR on $10,000 S&P 500 by 2027 Case, Hyperscaler ROIC, AI CapEx, Semis, Exchanges, and Reverse Crash Risk In “Project Zimbabwe”Erik YWR makes the case that the S&P 500 reaches 10,000 by end of 2027, a target he now considers conservative enough that he may revise it to 11,000 or 12,000, driven by earnings growth running at 12 to 15 percent annually against a historical average of 8 percent and 2026 earnings estimates near 340 dollars per share.Tue 30 JunTop IPO Scholar on Unprecedented IPO Wave & Why IPOs Underperform the Market | Jay RitterJay Ritter, described as a top IPO scholar, explains why 2026 could mark the largest IPO wave in history by proceeds as a share of US market cap, driven by SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, with SpaceX alone roughly twice the inflation-adjusted size of Japan's 1987 NTT privatization.Mon 29 JunRothschilds, Railroads, & Ruin | Liaquat Ahamed on “1873” (New Book!)Liaquat Ahamed joins the show to discuss his new book on the crash of 1873, tracing how a Rothschild-engineered bond market boom channeled British and French savings into railroads and sovereign debt before collapsing into a two-decade deflation. Bismarck's decision to dump Germany's silver reserves and move to gold forced every European country to scramble for the metal, contracting the money supply and driving prices down 40 percent over twenty years.Wed 24 JunInside The Platform Helping to Invest Like Substack & FinTwit's Top Researchers | PlutusPlutus is an SEC-registered investment advisor, roughly one year old and now past 50 million dollars in assets under management, that lets clients allocate to model portfolios built by independent researchers from Substack and financial Twitter.Sun 21 JunEd Zitron: The AI Bubble is Bleeding Cash, Here Are The ReceiptsEd Zitron makes the case that the AI industry's financial foundations are far weaker than reported, using OpenAI's 2025 figures showing $13.07 billion in revenue against roughly $34 billion in total costs as his central exhibit.Sat 20 JunJim Chanos & Val Zlatev: Long and Short Alpha in AI, Semiconductors, Neoclouds, and Data Centers | MacroMinds Symposium 2026Jim Chanos and Val Zlatev debate where genuine value and risk reside across the AI infrastructure chain, with Chanos arguing that neoclouds like CoreWeave are effectively equipment leasing businesses generating only 4 to 6 percent returns on capital in out years, while Zlatev counters that GPU rental prices have rebounded 40 to 50 percent since January as token usage outpaces supply.Sat 20 JunJim Chanos & Val Zlatev: Long and Short Alpha in AI, Semiconductors, Data Centers, Neoclouds, and Data Centers | MacroMinds Symposium 2026Jim Chanos and Val Zlatev debate where genuine returns exist across the AI supply chain, with Chanos arguing that chips should be owned where they are produced rather than where they reside, leaving him long semiconductors and skeptical of neoclouds, which he calculates generate only 5 to 8 percent pre-tax returns on invested capital even under favorable assumptions.Thu 18 JunThe US Manufacturing and Electrification Megatrends Are Here and They’re Way More Than AI | Chris SemenukUS manufacturing just ended its longest contraction in ISM PMI survey history, with sub-50 readings spanning three consecutive years before crossing above 50 only in the last three months. Chris Semenuk argues the recovery is driven by three simultaneous tailwinds unwinding at once, covering post-COVID destocking, higher-for-longer rates, and tariff uncertainty.Mon 15 JunRegulatory Risk is Coming For AI | David Woo on AI Data Center CapEx and Iran WarDavid Woo makes the case that combined capex across Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Oracle, and Facebook declined quarter over quarter in Q1 for the first time in three years, with the capex-to-operating-income ratio for the five hyperscalers reaching 135 percent, forcing Google to seek 80 to 85 billion dollars in external equity.Wed 10 JunAmerica’s $205 Billion Government Fund You’ve Never Heard Of | Conor Coleman, Head of Investments at Development Finance Corporation (DFC)The U.S. Development Finance Corporation holds 205 billion dollars in investment capacity yet remains largely unknown even among investment professionals, and Conor Coleman explains how a December reauthorization transformed the agency from a senior secured lender into a full capital stack investor deploying equity, mezzanine, and structured notes.Sun 7 Jun“Sleepwalking into Crisis”: Why The Oil Market Hasn’t Imploded Yet | Kpler’s Matt SmithMatt Smith of Kpler explains why oil markets have not yet collapsed despite the Strait of Hormuz being effectively closed for roughly four months, halting around 15 million barrels per day of crude and 5 million barrels per day of refined products.