RECENT EPISODES
Thu 5 NovWhy This Short Seller Doesn’t Want to Short the AI Bubble | Russell ClarkRussell Clark sees no clear short signal in AI: rising data-center demand and the strategic importance of the technology may keep hyperscalers spending, even if returns weaken. He warns that AI investment could become inefficient and says funding for firms such as Anthropic and OpenAI is a key test of demand; major IPOs could prolong the boom, while a SpaceX collapse could signal trouble. Outside AI, he sees US home builders as a more compelling short.Wed 4 NovGrowth Expectations Are Probably Too High | Andy Constan on Post-Midterms Macro View, Bond Supply Issue, and QRA (Quarterly Refunding Announcement)Andy Constan says growth expectations remain too high and may weaken over the next three to six months, without necessarily tipping the economy into recession; fiscal gridlock makes policy a slight drag absent a crisis. He sees government, corporate and AI-related borrowing adding to bond supply and risk premiums.Mon 2 NovPreparing For 2027 Inflection in Global Liquidity | Michael Howell’s Bull Case For Bonds and Tepid View of Liquidity-Sensitive AssetsMichael Howell sees global liquidity growth slowing after its late-2025 peak, with a possible trough in the second half of 2027 as refinancing needs and AI infrastructure borrowing add pressure. He favors government bonds, expecting falling liquidity to flatten yield curves, while trimming equities and selling credit. Bitcoin remains highly liquidity-sensitive and could retest $70,000, though a sustained turn depends on liquidity recovering.Sun 1 NovThe Fed Better Have AI's Back Or There Will Be Problems | Dan Krausz on “Liquidity Trap Door” In AI Infrastructure and Why Policymakers Are Inclined to Support Financial ConditionsDan Krausz argues the AI hardware selloff reflects tightening liquidity more than failing demand, as hyperscalers’ growing reliance on markets makes infrastructure spending vulnerable to competition for capital. He expects policymakers to resist financial conditions that derail AI investment, given its importance to competitiveness and potential disinflation, but warns persistent inflation could force them to withdraw support. If liquidity tightens further, he says, a 10% or greater market correction is possible.Sun 1 NovThe Fed Has AI’s Back | Dan Krausz on “Liquidity Trap Door” In AI Infrastructure and Why Policymakers Are Inclined to Support Financial ConditionsDan Krausz argues the AI-hardware selloff reflects tightening liquidity more than a collapse in AI demand, with the capital-intensive infrastructure buildout most exposed as hyperscalers increasingly compete for financing. He explains why policymakers may seek to protect AI investment and financial conditions, while persistent inflation could limit their support. The conversation examines the “liquidity trapdoor”: further tightening could trigger a 10% or greater market correction, while easing could help the infrastructure trade recover.Wed 28 OctWhy Compute Prices Are Still Rising | Steve Hou of Silicon Data on GPU Rental Indices, Fed Meeting, and Anthropic S-1 (LIVE)Steve Hou of Silicon Data explains why GPU rental rates for H100, B200 and B300 chips are surging even as its usage-weighted AI token price index falls, and why the price gap doesn’t prove demand is broad-based. He discusses Anthropic’s strong Q2 results and enterprise adoption alongside slower Q3 growth, uncertain Opus-driven reacceleration and unusual accounting effects in its S-1. The conversation also weighs Fed policy and AI-driven inflation as risks to data-center investment.Tue 27 OctThe Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneXVincent Deluard argues the U.S. bull market has likely ended, with weak market breadth and fading fiscal support undermining optimistic earnings expectations. He sees slowing growth alongside sticky inflation creating stagflation, while inflation limits the Fed’s ability to rescue markets. With AI investment already a significant share of GDP and hard to keep doubling, he favors Treasuries over stocks for the next six months, mainly for liquidity.Sun 25 OctCitrini: Monkeys Are The Next Bottleneck | Citrini on AI Drug Discovery Experiment & Reflexive Financing Risk to AI Buildout & Hardware TradeCitrini sees a shift from AI hardware toward deployment and agentic utilities, while warning that equity- and debt-funded infrastructure could face a reversal if revenue lags expectations. In a drug-discovery test, AI generated 180 mini-binder designs; 17 bound the target, but binding did not establish toxin neutralization. Scarce research monkeys, with breeding taking about four years and China having stopped exports, may constrain trials. Citrini expects more moderate semiconductor returns as cheaper candidate generation leaves compute demand uncertain.Fri 23 Oct"Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros"George Noble calls the AI buildout a shale-like bubble, arguing that falling compute costs and uncertain returns could collide with heavy debt, depreciation and excess capacity. CoreWeave is his biggest short: he likens it to “a WeWork from GPUs” and says its equity could be worth zero without a bailout, though he cannot predict bankruptcy. He also warns that momentum-driven valuation arguments are failing—and says, “I’m coming for you.”Tue 20 OctIs The AI Trade Over? | Jack & Max on Panic in AI Credit, SpaceX Earnings, and SemisJack and Max do not see an AI-trade collapse as their base case, weighing credit-market fears against SpaceX’s bullish results: revenue grew 161%, and Elon Musk targeted 10 gigawatts online in 2027. CoreWeave’s unsecured 2032 bonds imply roughly a 60% cumulative default probability, while SpaceX’s compute deal implies GPU rentals of about $5.30 per hour. The semiconductor index fell for nine straight days, with slowing Anthropic revenue growth and planned Chinese memory expansion weighing on sentiment.Sun 18 OctJim Bianco: Why I’m Finally Buying Bonds After Six YearsJim Bianco explains why he began buying longer-duration Treasuries for the first time in six years: yields better reflect his outlook for 5–6% nominal growth, and the risk-reward looks favorable despite scope for rates to rise. He is not betting on recession; he expects inflation near 3%, partly because goods deflation has given way to lasting price pressures. He also discusses Fed policy and why AI-related credit stress may remain localized.Wed 14 OctThe AI Bubble Will Pop from Equity Supply Says This $80 Billion Asset Manager | Ben Inker | GMOBen Inker argues that a wave of potential SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI share sales—perhaps 6% to 7.5% of U.S. market capitalization—could pressure stocks over the next 12 to 18 months, even without AI enthusiasm fading. He explains why today’s concentrated, passive-heavy market may need sharper price moves to absorb new supply, and warns that excessive AI infrastructure spending could hurt returns and expose vulnerable companies.Mon 12 OctTop Performing Value Investor Explains Why the Market Isn’t Overvalued and Hasn’t Hit the Blowoff Top Phase | Charles Lemonides | ValueWorks LLCCharles Lemonides argues that the market is more fully valued but not broadly overvalued, with excessive valuations concentrated in a handful of companies, and says the bull market has not reached a blowoff top. He sees earnings growth, data-center investment, and chip demand supporting the advance, which he expects could continue for years, though investors should be ready for a turn. His value strategy seeks assets below worth, including growth businesses, while keeping AI exposure diversified.Thu 8 OctStacy Rasgon: “Demand Is Off The Charts” in Semiconductors… And Set To Double Again SoonStacy Rasgon says semiconductor demand remains strong, with customers struggling to secure enough compute and no cycle peak in sight this year or next. He sees room for NVIDIA revenue to grow 100% next year and approach $700 billion, while the five largest hyperscalers may spend about $1.5 trillion. Power, memory and construction constraints could slow the buildout while extending the investment cycle.Tue 6 OctThe Most Extreme Shipping Market in History, Explained | J Mintzmyer on Why Oil Tanker Rates Are Up 25x and Why It Can’t Last (and Why Dry Bulk, not Tankers, is the Next Shipping Boom)J Mintzmyer explains how a tight, aging tanker fleet and longer routes helped push a few VLCC fixtures to $1 million–$1.2 million a day, roughly 25–30 times normal rates, but expects the extreme to last days or weeks, not months. He sees dry bulk as the more attractive next opportunity, with Guinea-to-China iron-ore voyages and coal switching supporting ton-mile demand, while warning recession would hurt the sector.Thu 1 OctEd Zitron on Anthropic's IPO (S-1), AI Debt, and Counterparty RiskEd Zitron argues Anthropic’s IPO case remains difficult to assess: leaked S-1 material lacks detail, and adjusted-profitability claims excluding training costs are misleading. He cites $4.6 billion in 2025 revenue against an $8 billion loss, and says Google and Amazon reselling its models account for 47% of Anthropic’s revenue. He also cites $518 billion in commitments and warns that AI debt and data-center financing expose suppliers and lenders to loss-making firms and uncertain cash flows.Wed 30 SeptToken Bill Dwarfs CPU Bill | Ben Pouladian on Meta's Muse, Anthropic S1, and Why All Roads Still Lead to NVIDIABen Pouladian says Meta’s Muse serves about 3 million monthly users and handles roughly 90% of everyday requests, while Meta could monetize AI through advertising and business tools. He argues token production and energy costs deserve more attention as agentic workflows expand, though he does not endorse the suggested 20-to-84-times CPU-cost comparison. On compute, he sees NVIDIA’s integrated systems as valuable for performance, security, and reusable capacity, and doubts Anthropic’s huge commitments are for Trainium alone.Sun 27 SeptThe Private Credit Boom is Over: Redemption Requests Exceed Liquidity | James Elbaor | Marlton LLCJames Elbaor says private credit has shifted from growth to managing redemptions, exposing the mismatch between funds’ liquidity promises and hard-to-sell assets. Blackstone’s $82 billion B-CRED received roughly $8 billion in redemption requests against a 5% quarterly gate; Elbaor says the requests alone do not prove broader distress. He expects consolidation and warns that AI disruption among SaaS borrowers could push defaults above what current pricing implies.Thu 24 SeptWhy the Fed May Have to Hike Far Higher Than Expected | Henry Peabody on the Fed’s Triple Mandate and Uneven Transmission of Monetary PolicyHenry Peabody argues that credit transmission has become an unofficial third Fed mandate as lending shifts to markets and nonbanks, leaving borrowers under uneven pressure. Strong companies, including AI firms, can still raise capital, while weaker businesses and consumers face costly or restricted credit. With asset prices and some borrowing less responsive to rates, the Fed may have to keep rates higher for longer—or hike further than markets expect—to restrain demand and inflation.Wed 23 SeptEnergy Shock and Rate Hikes Could Cause a 2022 Style Bear Market | Eric Wallerstein | Clocktower GroupIn this episode, Eric Wallerstein discusses the potential for a bear market reminiscent of 2022, driven by energy shocks and rising interest rates. He highlights a significant disconnect between the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and market perceptions, raising concerns about economic stability. Wallerstein warns of a technical recession due to insufficient growth inputs and emphasizes the broader implications of higher energy prices on food and manufacturing, while also addressing geopolitical tensions and their impact on global markets.Sun 20 SeptOutlook on 5 Key Commodities: Metals Bull Market is Just Getting Started (Gold, Copper, & Uranium) | Jérémie Boyer | AurelionIn this episode, Jérémie Boyer from Aurelion shares a bullish outlook on key commodities, particularly gold, which he predicts could soar to 5,000 USD per ounce due to increased central bank purchases, especially from China. He also highlights the long-term demand for copper driven by advancements in AI and data centers, while emphasizing the emerging uranium bull market fueled by new nuclear power plants. Boyer discusses Aurelion's strategic portfolio positioning and the potential impacts of geopolitical factors on commodity prices.Sat 19 SeptWhy The 30-Year Treasury Lost Its Biggest Buyers | David Busch on Why High Yields Are Attractive Right NowWith the 30-year Treasury yield around 5.29%, David Busch explains why higher yields have yet to lure back major buyers: insurers are reducing long-duration exposure and putting more assets into private credit, while heavy Treasury issuance and corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure add competition. He sees three-to-five-year Treasuries as more attractive than 20-to-30-year bonds, and cautions that private credit’s higher returns come with added credit, collateral and liquidity risks.Wed 16 SeptHawks Take Flight | Joseph Wang on Fed’s Hawkish Hike and Warsh’s GameplanIn this episode, Joseph Wang analyzes the Federal Reserve's recent hawkish interest rate hike, suggesting it signals the start of a new hiking cycle with at least two more increases expected. He discusses the impact of geopolitical events on inflation and the current state of the housing market, predicting a future decrease in mortgage rates.Sun 13 SeptHunting for Value in Mining Stocks Amid Soaring Metals Prices | Freddy Brick | Muddy Waters CapitalIn this episode, Freddy Brick from Muddy Waters Capital explores the current dynamics of mining stocks amid soaring metals prices. He discusses the challenges faced by the junior mining sector, including significant drawdowns and reduced capital flows, while emphasizing the search for undervalued assets capable of profitable production. Brick also highlights the importance of strong management teams and the potential for mergers and acquisitions, cautioning against overpaying and the risks of permanent capital impairment in this volatile market.Fri 11 SeptWhy Farmland With Centuries of Water Is the Ultimate Scarce Asset | John Farris of LandFund Partners on Super El Niño, Food Security, and the Sources of Alpha in FarmlandIn this episode, John Farris of LandFund Partners explores the critical importance of irrigated farmland with reliable water sources as a scarce asset in the face of rising global food demand and climate challenges. He discusses the implications of Super El Niño on food security, particularly the anticipated impacts on rice production and overall supply chains.Sun 6 SeptWhat Actually Happens When a Life Insurer Fails (It's Worse Than a Bank) | Pranjal Drall and Andrew Granato on How Private Equity Turned Life Insurance Into a Taxpayer BackstopIn this episode, Pranjal Drall and Andrew Granato explore the alarming implications of life insurer failures, emphasizing that the current system places taxpayers at risk as private equity increasingly dominates the industry. With private equity ownership skyrocketing to around $700 billion, the shift towards riskier assets raises concerns about the stability of life insurers and the adequacy of existing regulatory frameworks. The discussion highlights the fragmented insolvency processes and the potential for significant financial burdens on policyholders and taxpayers alike.Thu 3 Sept“I’m Insanely Bullish on Bonds” | Jared Dillian on Copper, Bonds, Semis, and The Awesome PortfolioIn this episode, Jared Dillian shares his bullish perspective on bonds, emphasizing their current yields as a prime investment opportunity amid a risk-off environment. He discusses the manageable inflation levels and critiques the prevailing narrative around rising bond yields. Dillian also analyzes the semiconductor market's recent bottom and expresses caution about the overly optimistic sentiment surrounding copper, while advocating for a diversified investment strategy he calls the "awesome portfolio," which balances stocks, bonds, and precious metals.Mon 31 AugThe Certainty Premium: What’s Driving the Tech Sector Divergence? | Jeff KellerIn this episode, Jeff Keller delves into the tech sector's divergence, highlighting how long-term uncertainty is creating a premium on short-term certainty. He discusses the contrasting financial analysis and optimism in Silicon Valley, with a notable 20% increase in software and services, while semiconductor stocks face challenges. Keller warns against extrapolating short-term trends and emphasizes the evolving hyperscaler model amid rising competition, suggesting that cautious investment strategies may be necessary in the current market landscape.Wed 26 AugThe Commodity Bull Market Is Broadening | Jim Wiederhold on Copper, Grains, and Bloomberg Commodity IndexIn this episode, Jim Wiederhold delves into the expanding commodity bull market, focusing on the rising demand for copper driven by the energy transition and data center growth. He discusses the impact of weather-related disruptions on copper supply and highlights significant price increases in agricultural commodities like wheat and soybean oil due to crop challenges. Wiederhold also emphasizes the growing institutional interest in commodities as a diversification strategy amid geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic shifts.Wed 26 AugTime to Reduce Equity Risk: Why Underappreciated Macro Risks Could Derail the Bull Market | Warren PiesIn this episode, Warren Pies delves into the underappreciated macro risks that could threaten the current bull market, particularly following a strong earnings season. He highlights the Fed's shifting stance on rate hikes amid rising inflation pressures and the implications for tech and semiconductor sectors. Pies warns that without a broadening of leadership in these areas, the market may struggle to maintain its upward trajectory, emphasizing the need for investors to reassess their risk exposure.Mon 24 AugIs Private Equity Broken? Why the Buyside’s Problems Are Making 2026 “The Year of the Banker” | High Yield HarryIn this episode of High Yield Harry, the discussion centers on the challenges facing private equity and private credit, predicting that 2026 will be "The Year of the Banker." With rising redemption requests and concerns over compensation sustainability, limited partners are increasingly worried about the state of these markets.Thu 20 AugWhy Bessent Blinked | Luke Gromen on Doubling of Treasury Buyback Plan to Tame Long-End YieldsLuke Gromen argues that the US attack on Iran broke the Treasury market, driving the 10-year yield from 3.94 percent to nearly 4.74 percent by August 18, 2026, before Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the buyback program targeting the 10-year to 30-year sector the following day.Tue 18 AugEx-Goya COO on the $1.4 Trillion Family Business Opportunity in Three Consumer Sectors | Andy UnanueAndy Unanue, former COO of Goya Foods and founder of AUA Private Equity Partners, explains how his family business background shaped a strategy targeting lower middle market family-run companies across food, beverage, pet wellness, and co-manufacturing, a combined addressable market AUA sizes at $1.3 to $1.4 trillion.Sun 16 AugRobin Wigglesworth on Hyperscalers' 1.5 Trillion of Off-Balance Sheet Liabilities, Private Credit, and His Book "A Fabulous Debt"Robin Wigglesworth examines how AI data-center expansion is pushing hyperscalers toward bond financing and creating an estimated $1.5 trillion in lease obligations, alongside growing equipment commitments that can function like debt. He discusses the risks of private credit, including opaque valuations, liquidity mismatches and lending against hard-to-value computing assets, and explains why he expects defaults to rise without forecasting a catastrophe. His book, A Fabulous Debt, traces how bonds have financed transformative booms while fostering false confidence in their safety.Wed 12 AugMilton Berg: I Have Evidence Market Has Likely Bottomed | Why Milton’s Long Semis, Korea, Nasdaq, and More (With Caveats), and Why He Thinks Gold has made a Multi-year TopMilton Berg sees evidence that the market likely bottomed, citing at least 34 buy signals and the S&P 500 holding above its June low, but warns that a retest remains possible and signals do not guarantee returns. He explains why he is long semiconductors, Korea, the Nasdaq 100 and other equities while watching for short-term weakness. Berg also argues gold likely made a multi-year top in January, though he allows for further rallies without new highs.Fri 7 AugMisunderstood Stocks in Data Center Power, Cybersecurity, and Payments | Dean & Deiya PernasDean and Deiya Pernas of Pernas Research, which claims an audited track record of over 1300 percent gross returns since 2017, walk through what they see as the most misunderstood opportunities in data center power, cybersecurity, and cross-border payments.Tue 4 AugVictor Haghani on Death of Random Walk, and Passive, Buybacks, and LTCMVictor Haghani discusses his paper "Who Killed the Random Walk," accepted into the Journal of Investment Management, which builds a multi-agent model reproducing excess volatility, momentum, and market booms and busts. He argues that passive asset allocation, meaning fixed allocations like 60/40 regardless of conditions, drives these distortions and has already produced a boom without the bust.Sun 2 AugWhy Macro is “Pretty Risk-On” for Equities | Tian Yang of Variant PerceptionTian Yang of Variant Perception explains why his firm's macro indicators point to a risk-on regime for equities over a three-to-six-month horizon, with US real GDP near two percent, credit spreads in a normal range, and broadening breadth inconsistent with net money leaving markets.Wed 29 JulMum’s The Word: Kathryn Rooney Vera on Fed’s Second Meeting under Kevin Warsh, Plus Earnings Breakdown (Live Replay)Kathryn Rooney Vera correctly called the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates at its second meeting under Kevin Warsh, against market odds she put near 30 percent for a hike, and found Warsh's press conference internally contradictory given his stated laissez-faire philosophy. Her base case is one hike in December and one to two more the following year, with inflation expected to miss the 2 percent target for two years running.Tue 28 JulLuke Gromen: Yield Curve Control is the Only Way to Stop a Global Bond CrisisLuke Gromen makes the case that the US bond market is facing a structural crisis driven by over one hundred trillion dollars in off-balance-sheet entitlement liabilities now coming due as boomers retire, pushing the combined ratio of interest expense, entitlements, and veterans benefits to roughly 102 to 104 percent of federal receipts.