Outlook on 5 Key Commodities: Metals Bull Market is Just Getting Started (Gold, Copper, & Uranium) | Jérémie Boyer | Aurelion

Jérémie Boyer from Aurelion presents a bullish outlook on gold, predicting it could reach 5,000 USD per ounce, primarily driven by increased central bank purchases, especially from China, which bought 66 tons in June. He expects gold prices to continue rising this year, although Aurelion may reconsider its position if geopolitical tensions ease or if the Federal Reserve cuts rates.

Boyer emphasizes a long-term increase in copper demand, spurred by advancements in AI. Aurelion's model portfolio has performed impressively, up over 38% year to date and over 130% since its inception in July 2025. The firm focuses on long-only equities and mining stocks, avoiding options or ETFs, and currently holds two uranium positions and one copper company, with plans to add one or two gold positions soon.

While bullish on gold, Boyer notes that Aurelion aims to keep commodity exposure below 50% of the portfolio, currently at about 25-30%. He acknowledges speculative excess in the gold and silver markets and sees potential upside in gold miners. The firm is bearish on fertilizer and oil due to insufficient data, remaining neutral on fertilizer, with prices potentially declining if the Strait of Hormuz reopens quickly.

Boyer highlights that China is significantly cutting oil imports, impacting global demand, and rising oil inventory contradicts claims of low oil movement. He believes the market is adapting to the current oil situation, with uncertainty about future price movements. If U.S. military presence increases in Iran, Aurelion could shift to a bullish view on oil.

The refining sector is performing well, with crack spreads at near 10-year highs, but Boyer notes challenges related to pricing and competition. He emphasizes the durability of the royalty model for investing in commodities, citing companies like Land Bridge and Texas Pacific Land Trust. Boyer believes earnings of royalty companies can be enhanced through contracts with data centers, though he cautions about the risk of asset depletion.

Boyer asserts that the metals bull market, particularly for uranium, is just beginning, driven by significant demand from new nuclear power plants worldwide. He notes that operators of nuclear reactors may not be overly concerned about rising uranium prices, as these costs represent a small percentage of their overall operating expenses. Energy sovereignty issues, exacerbated by global conflicts, have underscored uranium's importance as an energy source.

China is projected to build 70 new nuclear power plants in the next decade, further contributing to global uranium demand. Boyer expresses skepticism about the decision to close nuclear plants in Germany, suggesting a growing push to reopen them. While there is a risk of countries shifting back to coal, the urgent need for power will likely accelerate nuclear plant construction and increase uranium demand.

In the copper market, Boyer predicts rising prices driven by immediate demand, particularly due to the growing importance of data centers and AI technologies. He points out that companies are beginning to disclose copper supply risks in their financial reports, indicating its increasing significance. Boyer favors a specific copper company that has lower asset depreciation and is well-prepared for future profitability, while expressing doubts about Freeport as a quality copper producer despite its popularity.

Boyer also notes a significant increase in central banks, including China, purchasing physical gold, reflecting a broader trend in the commodities market. He believes commodities will play a significant role as the year concludes, with good returns expected for companies currently generating cash flow from copper. However, he cautions that the situation with fertilizer prices is complex and could change in the near future.