“I’m Insanely Bullish on Bonds” | Jared Dillian on Copper, Bonds, Semis, and The Awesome Portfolio
Thursday, 3 September 2026 · 2 min read · Listen to the episode ↗
In this episode, Jared Dillian shares his bullish perspective on bonds, emphasizing their current yields as a prime investment opportunity amid a risk-off environment. He discusses the manageable inflation levels and critiques the prevailing narrative around rising bond yields. Dillian also analyzes the semiconductor market's recent bottom and expresses caution about the overly optimistic sentiment surrounding copper, while advocating for a diversified investment strategy he calls the "awesome portfolio," which balances stocks, bonds, and precious metals.
Jared Dillian presents a strong bullish outlook on bonds, asserting that current yields offer an exceptional investment opportunity. He has recently shifted a considerable portion of his portfolio into bonds, anticipating that a risk-off event will lead to declining interest rates as investors seek safety in bonds. Dillian disputes the common belief that bond yields will rise significantly, arguing that this narrative is overstated.
He observes that inflation has recently subsided and does not pose a major threat, even in light of a $2 trillion deficit, which he considers manageable at 6% of GDP. Dillian highlights concerning economic indicators, such as disappointing payroll reports and a 66% probability of a rate hike, while noting that the unemployment rate has dropped to 4.1%. He attributes part of this decline to lower participation rates among native-born Americans compared to immigrants.
In the semiconductor industry, Dillian identifies a market bottom around July 27th and points out that retail investor positioning is at a two-year low. He expresses caution regarding the sentiment surrounding copper, suggesting it is overly optimistic due to the AI trade, and he maintains a more favorable view of precious metals like gold and silver over copper. Additionally, he notes that the recent hedge fund unwind was the largest since 2020, indicating significant shifts in market dynamics.
Dillian critiques the conventional retirement investment strategy that relies heavily on index funds, arguing that it exposes investors to excessive volatility. He promotes a diversified investment approach, which he terms the "awesome portfolio," that includes stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate. He believes this strategy results in only a minor performance trade-off compared to investing solely in the S&P 500.
He expresses skepticism about the viability of private credit and private equity, highlighting the significant challenges and negative sentiment these sectors are currently facing. Dillian emphasizes that the current market environment features profits unlike those seen during the dot-com bubble, and he is closely monitoring revenue growth in technology companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic, which he predicts will be historically significant.
This summary was generated from the episode transcript and can contain mistakes.