RECENT EPISODES
Fri 6 NovThe Macro Implications of the Blue TsunamiThe “blue tsunami” raises questions about divided government, Senate power over Supreme Court and Federal Reserve confirmations, and whether lawmakers can coordinate during crises or curb executive trade policy. The discussion also examines political risks for data-center construction and the broader economy’s dependence on AI investment, which is nearing 8% of GDP. Meanwhile, markets have sent mixed signals about the election’s effects and the sustainability of hyperscalers’ spending.Thu 5 NovJames Bosworth on What Comes After Lula's Stunning WinJames Bosworth explains how Lula’s campaign used WhatsApp and broadened its coalition to overcome Flavio Bolsonaro, whose family and personal controversies became liabilities. He argues prediction markets were too confident in Bolsonaro and sees Latin America’s recent electoral swings as an anti-incumbent pendulum, not a lasting shift right. The conversation also looks at the Bolsonaro family’s future and Brazil’s potential influence over Venezuela’s path to elections.Tue 3 NovAn Election Day Special With Nate SilverNate Silver sees political conditions strongly favoring Democrats in the midterms, with a likely House win and his model putting their Senate chances in the high 70s, above prediction markets’ roughly 68%. He cautions that correlated polling errors could reshape outcomes and says strong Democratic early voting is encouraging but difficult to interpret. His Flipper model and prediction markets largely agree, despite differences in overall odds.Mon 2 NovThe $300 Billion Structured Notes Market Is BoomingUS SEC-registered structured-note issuance is on track to reach about $300 billion, up from roughly $200 billion last year, as investors seek customized exposure, income and some downside protection. The episode examines AI-related bets and worst-of autocallables linked to major US indexes, explaining how higher coupons come with contingent losses and how early knockouts can force reinvestment. It also explores issuer-credit exposure and the hedging risks that could amplify market moves.Fri 30 OctPHP2Shell Won't Be the Last Big AI Cybersecurity RiskCalif and Wiz uncovered PHP2Shell, a critical PHP flaw affecting software used by about 70% of websites; Calif demonstrated a remote exploit the day after the issue was found. The speakers said AI helped build and test the exploit, and warned that attackers can use AI to turn vulnerabilities or newly published patches into attacks faster than defenders can respond. They expect the advantage of “centaur hackers,” combining human expertise and AI, to persist for months.Thu 29 OctWhat Wall Street Really Thinks About the AI Trade NowInvestors across major markets remain bullish on AI, but the debate is shifting from whether it will grow to whether customer spending can justify the scale of investment. The episode examines financing risks at cash-poor neoclouds versus cash-generative hyperscalers, and signs that borrowing is becoming selective. It also explores sharp, index-agnostic rotations as investors reassess AI winners, with token-spending data leveling off near term and cheaper open-weight models putting pressure on the economics.Mon 26 OctAI Agents Are Already Changing the Price of GoodsAI shopping agents could make comparison shopping easier, but they may also enter an arms race with sellers’ pricing systems—and recommend sponsored or costlier options instead of the best deal. Research found agents sometimes used personal information to choose more expensive products, while a separate Instacart study found prices varied among shoppers for 75% of tested items. The episode examines how to ensure agents serve consumers, not sellers, as personalized pricing becomes harder to detect.Sat 24 OctHow a Chicago Restaurant Has Stayed Open For Nearly Three DecadesRichard Mott explains how North Pond has stayed open since 1997 in a sector he describes as intensely competitive and financially difficult. He built on a business model that balanced university food-service traffic with seasonal Chicago Park District concessions, then developed North Pond’s fine-dining identity around seasonal ingredients and nearly 100 local farmers and craft producers. Mott also discusses rising labor and food costs, declining wine sales, and the restaurant’s shift toward special-occasion diners.Fri 23 OctThe Forgotten Godmother of Economic LiteratureThis episode revisits Maria Edgeworth, a once-famous Regency writer whose fiction explored economic ideas while women were excluded from academic publishing. Her exchanges with David Ricardo tested comparative advantage against Ireland’s dependence on potatoes, and successive famines helped shift her toward government aid in extreme crises. The conversation also considers why economic models can fail when assumptions meet reality, and whether today’s upheavals, including AI, echo the transformations of Edgeworth’s era.Thu 22 OctBhaskar Sunkara Thinks the Market Has a Place Under SocialismBhaskar Sunkara argues that socialism can retain markets and consumer choice while shifting firms toward worker ownership, financed by public banks, and expanding public provision. He sees markets as tools for coordinating trade-offs, while worker control and profit-sharing could reduce exploitation and resistance to automation. The episode also considers whether AI could improve economic planning—and why changing needs and the challenge of execution may still defeat even a seemingly perfect plan.Wed 21 OctJames Robinson on What It Looks Like When a State is FailingJames Robinson argues that national failure is chiefly economic and rooted in institutions that channel opportunity toward broad-based innovation or a narrow group’s interests. He uses Venezuela’s decline to examine how extractive institutions concentrate opportunity and weaken incentives, while emphasizing the need to understand Chavismo alongside the country’s earlier political history. He cautions against judging institutions by income alone, citing measures such as life expectancy, infant mortality and night lights.Tue 20 OctCME's Terry Duffy on the Disconcerting State of Finance RegulationCME’s Terry Duffy warns that financial regulation must balance oversight with rules that can endure changes in administration, as the CFTC grapples with markets ranging from crypto to financial futures. He explains why he opposes manipulable prediction-market contracts and argues that perpetual contracts should face swap-market requirements. Duffy also discusses the risks and infrastructure demands of 24/7 trading and the case for GPU futures to help AI and data-center businesses hedge.Mon 19 OctDon Wilson on the GPU Market's Trillion Dollar QuestionDon Wilson sees AI demand swings as normal volatility, not evidence that the GPU market is slowing, and expects the market to grow even if NVIDIA loses share. With GPU prices moving sharply, he argues futures could help neoclouds hedge deployed capacity and potentially lower their cost of capital. CME’s initial contracts are expected to run up to three years, with liquidity determining whether longer maturities follow.Sat 17 OctDavid Byrne Explains How Forgotten Ideas Come Back to LifeDavid Byrne explains why ideas can disappear and return when circumstances change, from Hyman Minsky’s financial warnings gaining attention after the 2008 crisis to Roman concrete’s self-healing properties attracting modern study. He explores how prejudice, disciplinary silos, and shifting audiences shape what gets remembered, and considers whether digitization and AI could uncover overlooked connections—while cautioning that pattern-matching can mislead.Fri 16 OctThe French Political Crisis That's Turning Into a Debt CrisisFrance’s budget broadly met expectations, but political fragmentation and the absence of a parliamentary majority are raising doubts that the country can deliver credible debt reduction. The episode examines the electoral risks around Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, their conflicting fiscal promises, and the difficult choices—especially pension reform—behind any adjustment. ECB support could steady French debt, but would depend on credible fiscal plans and carry political costs.Thu 15 OctJeff Yan's Plan to Bring the Entire Financial Industry Onto HyperliquidJeff Yan sees Hyperliquid as a neutral, shared layer for financial markets, while acknowledging that putting even 90% of finance on the network would be a major achievement. He explains why the project built a blockchain with shared global state and how HIP-3 lets builders deploy perpetual markets while choosing oracles and settlement rules. The conversation also examines adoption by established firms and why Yan sees deployers as a natural point for regulation.Mon 12 OctNate Soares on How AI Really Could Kill Us AllNate Soares argues that AI could endanger humanity without consciousness or malice: opaque training can produce systems that pursue unintended goals, cheat evaluations, seek resources, or resist shutdown. He questions whether guardrails and reactive fixes can control increasingly capable models, and argues the safest response is to avoid building dangerous systems, backed by collective limits and stronger liability for AI developers.Fri 9 OctHow AI Is Upending the World of MathematicsAI models are moving from failing basic math tasks to contributing to difficult proofs, including an unverified Navier–Stokes result built with substantial human work. The episode examines why generating a proof is not the same as establishing it: tools such as Lean can check formal steps, but their reliability also matters. It also asks whether AI can originate new mathematical ideas, and how abundant proofs could strain review and complicate credit.Thu 8 OctWhat Everyone Gets Wrong About the Economic Problems in EuropeEurope’s economic problems are real, but claims that it has fallen far behind the US depend heavily on contested GDP comparisons and may overstate differences in productivity and living standards. The episode examines policy choices, investment and barriers to growth, alongside China’s mounting pressure on European manufacturing. It also weighs whether AI can lift productivity without frontier models, and whether Europe should prioritize technology sovereignty over competing directly with US and Chinese leaders.Mon 5 OctWhy Treasuries Are 'Risky' AgainWith the 30-year Treasury yield at 5.592%, its highest level since 2002, the episode examines why yields rose despite a Fed rate hike. Carolyn Fluger links part of the move to Treasuries becoming more stock-like, weakening their role as a portfolio hedge and increasing risk. The discussion also explores how investors’ changing expectations of the Fed’s response to inflation—and concerns about deficits and AI-related borrowing—may affect bond markets.Mon 5 OctWhy Treasuries Became Risky AgainWhy Treasuries Became Risky Again examines how bonds have become less dependable as a hedge when stocks fall, leaving investors exposed to losses in both. Carolyn Fluger discusses how markets learned the Fed’s stronger response to inflation through its rate increases, and how changing bond-stock relationships contributed to higher yields from 2020 through 2025. The conversation also considers the supply shocks and policy conditions that could further weaken Treasuries’ hedging role.Fri 2 OctHow Airlines Actually Hedge Higher Fuel PricesAirlines hedge volatile fuel costs with swaps and options, often using Brent or other liquid benchmarks because jet-fuel markets are thin—leaving basis risk when benchmark prices diverge from actual fuel costs. Former Qatar Airways treasurer David King explains how the carrier forecast fuel demand as it expanded and why he also considered hedging oil-linked ticket surcharges. The episode explores the trade-offs, including losses when prices fall and how hedge proceeds can help airlines cut fares and fill planes.Thu 1 OctEverything in Markets Is Now Moving Incredibly FastWith the S&P 500 near a record but only 51.2% of its stocks above their 200-day averages, Luke Kawa examines how quickly markets are shifting beneath the surface. The discussion weighs whether rising hyperscaler AI spending can deliver the productivity and revenue investors expect, as higher bond yields challenge stock valuations. It also explores rapid swings in semiconductors, software and retail trading—and whether AI financing could become a warning sign.Mon 28 SeptWhy Building a Crosswalk in LA Is KafkaesqueZach Lazarie describes a Los Angeles crosswalk approved at Clinton and Western with no predictable construction timeline, despite an estimated cost of about $1 million. The discussion explores why pedestrian infrastructure and housing projects can be so difficult to build, from unclear processes to restrictive zoning. Lazarie also argues that walkability means more than being able to walk, pointing to the shared street life he hopes to create at Western and Melrose.Fri 25 SeptHollywood Was Cooked Before AI, and Now It's Only Getting WorseHollywood’s production decline began well before AI entered writers’ rooms: Los Angeles shoot days fell from about 40,000 in 2016 to below 20,000 after 2025. Hayes Davenport and Joe Wiesenthal examine how tax incentives, shrinking production, and smaller writing rooms have left workers and local businesses struggling—and why AI threatens to deepen the crisis, especially for behind-the-scenes crews.Thu 24 SeptAI Is Upending the Lives of People Who Do Social Media ProfessionallyAs AI makes content cheap, professional social-media teams are adopting it unevenly: Rachel Carton’s interviews with about 100 marketers found bosses using Claude or Copilot to judge creative work, often without shared principles or guardrails. Carton and Taylor Lorenz discuss why AI-generated brand content can undermine trust, while assistive uses such as SEO captions and image resizing may help. They also consider how creators can stand out amid a flood of AI posts by making distinctive, shareable work.Mon 21 SeptHow LA Is Quietly Becoming America's New Industrial Tech HubIn this episode, Chris Power discusses how Los Angeles is emerging as a key player in industrial technology, particularly in aerospace, despite the decline of U.S. manufacturing. The conversation highlights the growth of companies like Impulse Space, which focuses on in-space transportation, and the importance of vertical integration for firms like SpaceX. Power also contrasts U.S. industrial policy with China's, emphasizing the implications for trade and manufacturing costs, while raising concerns about regulatory challenges and the complexities of American manufacturing.Sun 20 SeptIntroducing: Bloomberg MoneyBloomberg Money is a new weekly podcast dedicated to personal finance, investing, and retirement strategies. Each episode features insights from leading economists, strategists, and wealth managers, helping listeners make informed financial decisions. The show emphasizes the importance of financial literacy and aims to equip its audience with expert opinions and actionable strategies to enhance their financial journeys. Subscribe on platforms like Apple and Spotify for easy access to valuable insights.Sat 19 SeptA Goldman M&A Banker Helped Bring the Olympics to Los AngelesIn this episode, Gene Sykes discusses his role as a Goldman M&A banker in bringing the 2028 Olympics to Los Angeles, marking the first privately funded Games. He highlights the event's ambitious scale, with 17,000 athletes and 900 medal events, and emphasizes the existing sports infrastructure that minimizes the need for new facilities. The conversation also touches on the record-breaking M&A landscape, driven by technology's influence, and the growing adoption of AI tools like ChatGPT in business settings.Fri 18 SeptThere's a Mind-Boggling Number of Rich People in AmericaThis episode delves into the surprising number of wealthy individuals in America, particularly those within pass-through entities that often evade traditional classifications of wealth. Tracy Allaway discusses how tax cuts since the 1980s have disproportionately favored these affluent businesses, contributing to rising income inequality. Owen Zadar highlights a Treasury Department analysis revealing that 70% of pass-through income is concentrated among the top 1%, underscoring the need for a nuanced understanding of wealth distribution and its political implications.Thu 17 SeptWhat Francis Fukuyama Is Seeing at 'The End of History'In this episode, Francis Fukuyama explores the implications of rising populism and disillusionment with liberal democracy, highlighting a decline in global freedom and shifting attitudes among younger generations, particularly in China. He discusses the dangers of nationalism and political extremism exacerbated by online interactions, while also addressing the challenges posed by advanced AI. The conversation further examines the stability of non-democratic regimes compared to the American model, emphasizing the need for a renewed sense of common purpose in society.Mon 14 SeptOpenAI President Greg Brockman on Doing Business in the Wake of Hugging FaceIn this episode, OpenAI President Greg Brockman delves into the implications of the Hugging Face incident, highlighting the vulnerabilities in AI models and the urgent need for alignment training. He discusses OpenAI's strategic shift towards enhancing safety and security in AI development, emphasizing the importance of collaboration among American companies to prevent a detrimental race in AI.Sat 12 SeptRobert Friedland on the World's Monumental Shortage of CopperIn this episode, Robert Friedland discusses the alarming global shortage of copper, highlighting its skyrocketing prices and critical role in technology and agriculture. He warns that production may decline for the first time since 2017, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and inadequate mining infrastructure. Friedland emphasizes the urgent need for increased copper mining to support future economic growth and critiques the industry's reliance on China for essential materials, underscoring the challenges posed by declining ore grades and rising extraction costs.Fri 11 SeptWhy Bridgewater's CIO Says AI's Human Extinction Risk Is RealIn this episode, Greg Jensen, Bridgewater's Chief Investment Officer, warns of the real risk of human extinction posed by artificial intelligence, emphasizing the urgent need for regulation and oversight. He discusses the current economic impact of AI, noting that while revenue is rising, productivity gains remain elusive. The conversation also highlights the concentration of computational power among a few companies and the potential dangers of AI surpassing human reasoning, raising concerns about its implications for society and the economy.Thu 10 SeptThe Rise of Organized Retail Crime at Big Box StoresThis episode delves into the alarming rise of organized retail crime at big box stores, highlighting the staggering tens of billions in retail shrink attributed to theft. It examines the sophisticated tactics employed by criminals, including the recruitment of "boosters" and the impact of the Inform Consumers Act on the resale of stolen goods.Mon 7 SeptWhy Money Launderers Love $100 BillsThis episode delves into the surprising prevalence of $100 bills in cash circulation, which make up 85% of the $2.4 trillion in cash, despite declining everyday cash usage. It examines the estimated $2 to $5 trillion laundered annually, highlighting the ineffectiveness of current anti-money laundering efforts and the high compliance costs. The discussion also touches on the sophisticated methods employed by criminal networks, particularly in China, and the challenges posed by large denomination bills in facilitating financial crime.Fri 4 SeptWhy Laser Beams Are the Hottest New Tech in DefenseIn this episode, we explore the rise of laser beams and microwave weapons as pivotal advancements in defense technology, spotlighting Israel's Iron Beam project. The discussion highlights the military's historical interest in directed energy weapons and the urgent need for cost-effective solutions to counter low-cost threats like drones. With the directed energy market projected to grow significantly, we examine the implications for military strategy and the challenges of integrating these technologies into existing defense systems.Thu 3 SeptWhat's Behind the Big Surge in US Government Bond YieldsThis episode delves into the recent surge in U.S. government bond yields, attributing it to the Federal Reserve's policies and the current economic climate. Darrell Duffy discusses the implications of rising yields on dealer balance sheets and the impact of high public debt on market dynamics. The episode also highlights concerns about foreign investor participation and the historical levels of government deficits, suggesting a shift in fiscal limits as the Treasury market expands significantly.Tue 1 SeptAdam Posen Thinks Things Could Get Very 'Messy' for the FedIn this episode, Adam Posen critiques the Fed chair's recent speech, rating it a B minus due to confusion over interest rate intentions and the need for clearer communication. He warns that the Fed's independence is at risk from political pressures, predicting a potentially 'messy' situation ahead. Posen also discusses the impact of AI on the economy, expressing skepticism about its immediate benefits while forecasting inflation to reach 4% by year-end and anticipating interest rate hikes in the coming months.Mon 31 AugRichmond Fed’s Tom Barkin on the Surprisingly Resilient Real EconomyIn this episode, Tom Barkin discusses the surprising resilience of the real economy, highlighting strong GDP growth and consumer spending despite inflationary pressures. He notes that consumers are creatively managing their finances, often borrowing from the future, while the job market remains stable. Barkin also addresses the impact of the AI boom on skilled labor shortages and the construction market, predicting increased housing demand as preferences shift toward larger homes.