RECENT EPISODES
Fri 6 NovLong Gold And Short Semis Into Year-End? | Weekly RoundupThe episode’s preferred year-end relative trade is long gold against short semiconductors: gold was holding near 4,100, while SMH had fallen from the 600s to about 455, with 350 cited as possible support. The bearish semiconductor view sees room for further declines, though reversals could be sharp. Speakers also expect commodities and natural-resource stocks to hold up better than technology if the Nasdaq weakens, while questioning whether gold could withstand a semiconductor unwind.Wed 4 NovIs The AI Selloff A Buying Opportunity? | Warren PiesWarren Pies says the market’s prolonged, narrow consolidation is not yet a buying opportunity: he would consider a breakout or extreme fear, but has neutralized risk as momentum weakens. He remains bullish on AI’s long-term potential, noting rising GPU rental prices, yet warns that financing exposure to higher rates and renewed weakness in semiconductor charts could make the buildout and broader market vulnerable.Sat 31 OctThe Fed Is A Sideshow While The AI Trade Implodes | Weekly RoundupThe Fed held rates steady, but the discussion argues that weakening growth and persistent energy-driven inflation matter less to markets than cracks in the AI trade. Microsoft and Google both fell short of capital-spending estimates, while widening credit spreads and leverage threaten to amplify a pullback. The speakers debate whether AI infrastructure can generate durable returns and how long the unwind of semiconductor and data-center overinvestment could take.Fri 23 OctThe Only Way Out Is Through | Weekly RoundupMarkets are shifting from overheating fears toward slowing growth, but the bond rally may reflect short covering as oil remains the key risk to a durable bottom. Speakers discuss depleted reserves, constrained supply and the prospect that higher energy costs will squeeze consumers and markets. Some crypto projects have improving fundamentals, yet a sustained rally may require a positive liquidity impulse; with leverage, policy risks and tighter financial conditions in play, the path forward may take time.Tue 20 OctWhere Is The Crypto Alpha Hiding This Cycle?With crypto described as cautiously optimistic but more selective than prior cycles, the search for alpha is shifting from broad narratives to projects with durable use cases, growth and value capture. Crypto-AI may offer advantages in privacy, permissionless coordination and new financing models, though its ability to capture value remains unresolved. Investors are also weighing liquid opportunities, where market dispersion can reward active managers but thin liquidity and crowded trades complicate execution.Fri 16 OctThe Bond Market Is Pricing In Something Worse Than Inflation | Weekly RoundupHot CPI and PPI initially pushed yields higher, but bonds rallied as investors focused on weakening growth and a possible AI slowdown. Record short positioning left the market vulnerable to a countertrend move, though speakers said a sustained yield decline would require clearer economic deterioration or an equity selloff. They also discuss how tighter financial conditions and slower AI investment could affect rate expectations, AI-related borrowing, and the broader economy.Tue 13 OctRobinhood & Lighter: Why Wall Street Is Moving OnchainRobinhood and Lighter discuss building onchain infrastructure for stock tokens, perpetual futures and other financial products, with Lighter arguing blockchain can now meet traditional finance’s low-latency expectations while retaining security and verifiability. Robinhood says more than 70% of its stock-token trading volume occurs outside exchange hours. The conversation also explores cross-margining, interoperability and the regulatory hurdles to bringing onchain perps to US customers.Sun 4 OctAmerica’s AI Boom Is Squeezing Main Street | Weekly RoundupU.S. growth is increasingly concentrated in AI and data-center spending, while housing, small businesses, and other Main Street-linked sectors weaken. The boom is also driving up demand for power and costly inputs: speakers question how much hyperscaler spending reflects real expansion versus higher prices. Rising Treasury yields and mortgage rates further squeeze home affordability, even as large technology companies and AI-related assets benefit.Fri 25 SeptThe Bond Market Pain Isn't Over | Weekly RoundupThe bond selloff remains the central pain trade, with the 10-year Treasury at 5.22% and rate expectations swinging sharply toward hikes; speakers see no clear reversal signal and warn that volatile yields may strain risk assets. They also discuss fiscal borrowing and AI investment as sources of pressure, alongside higher diesel costs squeezing small businesses and consumers.Fri 18 SeptThe Fed Is Hiking Into A Growth Slowdown | Weekly RoundupThe Fed’s unanimous first rate hike was more hawkish than expected, with markets pricing about four hikes by mid-next-year even as speakers saw a steady growth slowdown emerging. Sticky inflation, weakening real wage growth and fading fiscal supports raise stagflation risks, though Vincent did not forecast a recession. Higher rates are already weighing on housing, while the speakers disagreed over whether the Fed’s tightening is a policy mistake or a necessary response to inflation.Wed 16 SeptThe Market Is Mispricing A Correlation Shock | Dean CurnuttIn this episode, Dean Curnutt examines the market's low implied correlation among stocks, currently between 5 to 15%, and warns that this mispricing could lead to risky investor assumptions. He discusses the disconnect between equity and credit markets, emphasizing the potential for a correlation shock that could significantly impact the S&P 500.Fri 11 SeptThe Bond Market Is Trapping The Fed | Weekly RoundupIn this episode, the bond market's signals suggest that the Federal Reserve's recent $6 billion in buybacks is insufficient to manage rising yields, prompting calls for more decisive action. With a projected fair value of 5.8% for the 10-year bond amid a 6.6% nominal GDP, the Fed faces pressure to raise interest rates, especially as political incentives complicate its decisions ahead of the midterms. Additionally, concerns over inflation and the semiconductor trade's slowdown highlight the uncertain economic landscape.Wed 2 SeptFiscal Dominance Is Breaking The 60/40 Portfolio | Matt Hougan & Bob HaberIn this episode, Matt Hougan and Bob Haber explore the decline of the traditional 60/40 portfolio, arguing that it fails to protect against currency debasement driven by government policies. They advocate for diversifying into gold and Bitcoin, highlighting their potential as hedges against the dollar's degradation. The discussion also touches on the implications of low interest rates, the volatility of Bitcoin compared to gold, and the challenges of managing U.S. debt in a changing fiscal landscape.Thu 27 AugDruck Calls Out Bessent & Will Jackson Hole Derail The Debasement Trade? | Weekly RoundupIn this episode, Druckenmiller critiques Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's reliance on buybacks to manage rising yields, calling for Congressional action on economic reforms. The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting is anticipated to influence market dynamics, though skepticism surrounds the Fed's potential policy shifts. Additionally, the discussion touches on the implications of Anthropic's IPO and the challenges facing the AI sector, highlighting concerns about political volatility and the sustainability of frontier AI models amid rising inflation and the debasement trade.Thu 20 AugTreasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly RoundupTreasury Secretary Bessent is executing what speakers describe as a fiscal operation twist, doubling long-end buyback operations from 2 billion to 4 billion dollars per operation and funding them with short-duration bill issuance, effectively removing duration from the market outside the normal quarterly process. The coordinated framework keeps the Fed rhetorically hawkish while Bessent manages yields ahead of midterm elections roughly two and a half months away, a political deadline speakers identify as the primary driver of pace and scale.Wed 12 AugThe Growth Strategy Trapping The Fed | Darius DaleDarius Dale of 42 Macro argues that the administration has locked itself into running the economy hot, labeled paradigm C, as the least destructive path through a US debt-to-GDP ratio near 100 percent, with cutting risking social unrest and printing risking inflation spirals.Fri 7 AugWashington Is Suppressing Volatility To Keep The AI Boom Alive | Weekly RoundupThe episode centers on the argument that Washington is actively suppressing market volatility to protect the AI buildout and Trump's political standing ahead of midterms, with Treasury Secretary Bessent identified as the key actor who shifted volatility control from the Fed to the Treasury by selling euros from the Exchange Stabilization Fund to weaken the dollar without disturbing the bond market.Fri 7 AugWashington Is Suppressing Volatility To Keep The AI Boom Alive | Weekly RoundupWashington is actively suppressing bond market volatility to protect the AI buildout, with Treasury Secretary Bessent executing what the hosts describe as a generational Plaza Accord-style intervention by selling euros from the Exchange Stabilization Fund and publicly promoting the FIMA liquidity facility, shifting volatility control from the Federal Reserve to the Treasury. The strategic logic is that hyperscaler AI infrastructure financing has migrated to long-duration debt markets, making bond stability a direct precondition for the buildout's survival.Wed 5 AugThe Portfolio Built To Survive Every Crash | Jared DillianJared Dillian makes the case for his Awesome Portfolio, which splits allocations equally across stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate and has returned roughly 9% annually since 1971 with a worst-ever drawdown of 12% in 2022, compared to the S&P 500's 57% collapse from 2007 to 2009. He argues the return sacrifice is worth it because most investors sell at the lows and permanently destroy compounding.Wed 5 AugThe Portfolio Built To Survive Every Crash | Jared DillianJared Dillian makes the case for his Awesome Portfolio, which splits allocations equally across stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate. Backtested from 1971, it returns roughly 9% annually against the S&P 500's 11%, but its worst drawdown was 12% in 2022 versus the S&P 500's 57% collapse from 2007 to 2009. Dillian argues that gap is irrelevant because most investors liquidate near lows and permanently destroy compounding.Mon 3 AugThe AI Unwind And Warsh's Long-End Gamble | Weekly RoundupThis week's discussion centers on two interlocking market events: the forced liquidation of Ash Branner's AI-focused fund, which had grown from roughly 225 million dollars to billions, and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's signal that the long end of the yield curve, not the front end, is where policy tightening should be directed.Mon 3 AugThe AI Unwind And Warsh's Long-End Gamble | Weekly RoundupThis week's discussion centers on two interconnected market dislocations: the forced liquidation of Ash Branner's AI-focused fund, which had grown from roughly 225 million dollars to billions before Citadel's Ken Griffin stepped in as the single buyer of its entire public and private holdings including Anthropic, and Kevin Warsh's signal that the Fed intends to let long-end yields reprice to fair market value, a shift expected to add 50 to 100 basis points to long-end rates and pressure equities over.Wed 22 JulAI Efficiency Is Repricing The Compute Market | Steve HouSteve Hou of Silicon Data makes the case that futures contracts and derivatives for physical AI compute would let cloud providers hedge capacity risk currently embedded in equities and fixed income, enabling bolder infrastructure commitments while giving new entrants the revenue certainty lenders require. The GPU forward curve shifted from backwardation in late 2024 to a flatter contango shape by March 2025, with one-year contract prices rising monotonically even as headlines suggested oversupply.Wed 22 JulAI Efficiency Is Repricing The Compute Market | Steve HouSteve Hou makes the case that AI compute risk is mispriced because it is currently embedded in equity and fixed income rather than traded directly, and that Silicon Data's futures and derivatives market would let cloud providers and data centers hedge that exposure efficiently.Fri 17 JulThe AI Unwind Is Forcing A Historic Market Rotation | Weekly RoundupThis week's discussion centers on the AI unwind that has rolled sequentially from the Magnificent 7 into semiconductors and now into Korean retail markets, with hosts arguing the move may still be in its early innings given that levered retail drove the final 30 to 40 percent of momentum and value buyers remain far from stepping in.Fri 17 JulThe AI Unwind Is Forcing A Historic Market Rotation | Weekly RoundupMomentum suffered its sharpest sell-off in 27 years, as investors rotated away from AI-heavy stocks: QQQ fell nearly 2% while the equal-weight S&P 500 rose nearly 1%. The discussion examines how leveraged single-stock ETFs and concentrated positioning amplified the reversal, and whether financials and industrials could benefit. Speakers also weigh risks to the AI investment case, including cheaper models, reduced infrastructure needs and mounting financing pressures.Wed 8 JulThink Like Everyone Else, Lose Like Everyone Else | Brent DonnellyBrent Donnelly argues that consensus thinking produces consensus results, and since most traders lose money, independent thinking is a prerequisite for edge rather than an advantage. He extends this to large language models, observing that tools like Gemini Deep Research aggregate all available information to produce the most vanilla possible view on any stock or macro topic, which he treats as a signal rather than a flaw, applying Keynes's beauty contest principle to identify narratives not yet fully priced in.Wed 8 JulThink Like Everyone Else, Lose Like Everyone Else | Brent DonnellyBrent Donnelly opens with the argument that thinking like the consensus produces consensus results, and since most traders lose money, conformity is simply a structured path to the same outcome. He maps the tight aggressive poker framework onto trading discipline, using Jesse Livermore and Victor Niederhoffer as cautionary examples of skill destroyed by risk management failure, and argues that approaching ruin enough times guarantees eventually reaching it.Fri 3 JulThe AI Trade Is Finally Cracking | Weekly RoundupThe AI and semiconductor trade is showing a four-standard-deviation factor implosion, with crowded momentum and an estimated $100 billion in triple-leveraged ETFs amplifying reversals across U.S. and Asian chip stocks. Speakers question whether AI supply, hyperscaler spending and private-valuation markups leave the trade vulnerable, as weakening growth signals threaten the economic-reacceleration trade. Bitcoin stayed above $58,000 except for a liquidation wick near $57,000; the selloff was described as a positioning reset, not proof that debasement assets are safe.Fri 3 JulThe AI Trade Is Finally Cracking | Weekly RoundupThis week's discussion centers on what the hosts describe as a structural crack in the AI semiconductor trade, driven not by fundamentals but by extreme momentum positioning, roughly 100 billion dollars in triple-levered ETFs, and a single tweet claiming a memory efficiency breakthrough from a team spun out of OpenAI.Mon 29 JunHow To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob SheehanBob Sheehan makes the case that Kevin Warsh has effectively removed the Fed put that traders have relied on through every prior chair back to at least Yellen, creating a genuinely new regime for much of the market. Warsh cut forward guidance language roughly in half, abstained from the dot plot, and may eliminate press conferences, forcing rate expectations to become more dynamic and harder to price.Mon 29 JunHow To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob SheehanBob Sheehan, founder of Lighthouse Macro and former manager of a roughly one to one point two billion dollar large cap macro equity strategy at Bank of America, argues that the Fed put is dead or meaningfully diminished under Kevin Warsh, whose hawkish history and reduction of Fed guidance from approximately 340 to 170 words signals a structural regime shift.Fri 26 JunIs The Fed Panic Already Fading? | Weekly RoundupThis week's discussion centers on whether the Federal Reserve's hawkish posture is already losing credibility, with one-year breakeven inflation near 2 percent making Bank of America's forecast of three rate hikes look implausible. Powell's recent comments are read as implicit guidance designed to avoid hiking, and if the Fed skips July, falling inflation and election-year caution likely keep rates unchanged through year-end.Fri 26 JunIs The Fed Panic Already Fading? | Weekly RoundupThe hosts make the case that peak inflation and peak growth are passing through without tipping into recession, and that the Fed, scarred by its transitory inflation mistake, is effectively locked into a hawkish hold for the rest of the year. Kevin Warsh is read as implicitly signaling inaction while referencing balance sheet policy repeatedly, which the hosts argue carries more weight than front-end rate moves given historically suppressed long-end yields.Fri 19 JunA New Era Is Beginning In Markets | Weekly RoundupKevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting produced a dramatically shortened Fed statement with roughly 80 percent of prior text cut, closing only with the phrase "the committee will deliver price stability," a posture speakers argue was primarily a political signal of Fed independence from Trump rather than a genuine inflation call.Fri 19 JunA New Era Is Beginning In Markets | Weekly RoundupKevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting is being read as a turning point, with speakers arguing the hawkish dot plot represents peak hawkishness rather than a genuine tightening signal, partly because Warsh did not submit his own dot and non-voting members drove the narrative.Fri 19 JunA New Era Is Beginning In Markets | Weekly RoundupKevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair produced a hawkish surprise in which he cut roughly 80 percent of the FOMC statement and declined to submit his own dot, leaving the committee to drive projections that now price in two rate hikes by mid-2027. Speakers argue the Fed is reacting months late to data already showing oil down 30 percent and wages cooling to three percent, and predict July CPI will confirm peak hawkishness has passed.Wed 17 JunThe Warsh Fed Will Look Nothing Like Before | Joseph WangKevin Warsh's first FOMC statement as Fed chair delivered a hawkish surprise, with the phrase "the committee will deliver price stability" drawing comparisons to Powell's Jackson Hole speech and pushing front-end and belly rates higher without a single vote dissenting.Wed 17 JunThe Warsh Fed Will Look Nothing Like Before | Joseph WangKevin Warsh's first FOMC statement as Fed chair was deliberately brief and hawkish, with the closing line "the committee will deliver price stability" read by Joseph Wang as a signal comparable in tone to Powell's Jackson Hole speech. Without any actual rate change, the statement alone pushed two-year yields higher, rallied the dollar, and sold off equities and gold.Fri 12 JunPolicy Intervention Is Keeping The Bull Market Alive | Weekly RoundupThe Trump administration is described as running a deliberate playbook of stoking fear around geopolitical or currency events and then reversing course, crushing volatility and triggering a predictable sequence where the dollar falls, gold rips, real rates flatten, and AI and growth assets surge. This pattern has repeated roughly four times recently, with Treasury Secretary Bessent managing dollar-yen timing around the 160 USDJPY threshold.