2509: $1 Million Bitcoin SUPPLY SHOCK - Wall Street Keeps Buying Despite The CRASH

Bitcoin dropped 5% in one day, from $80,000 to $75,000, as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.5 billion in outflows over five days, including $430 million the previous day, according to Jay V. Despite the selling, Bitcoin was near $75,000 and defending its 50-week moving average. The episode framed the pullback against continuing institutional accumulation, arguing that near-term fund flows and longer-term demand are moving in different directions.

Jay V cited Fidelity Digital Assets’ estimate that spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products and perpetual preferred-stock vehicles accumulated more than 1 million Bitcoin in their first year. BNY reportedly increased its Bitcoin ETF holdings by more than 77%, to $201 million, while BlackRock’s iBit had accumulated about 820,000 Bitcoin since launching in January 2024. Fidelity, Morgan Stanley, and BNY collectively manage about $11.8 trillion, the episode said, while BlackRock and Vanguard manage roughly $30 trillion. Jay V said Morgan Stanley has discussed Bitcoin as digital gold and that its role in portfolios has taken off.

The supply-shock thesis rests on Bitcoin’s 21-million-coin cap, institutional demand, and reduced issuance at the next halving, scheduled for April 2028. Jay V predicted that this combination could eventually push Bitcoin to $1 million, but the forecast depends on demand continuing to grow while long-term holders remain unwilling to sell. At the prices he cited, all 21 million Bitcoin would have a notional value of $2.1 trillion at $100,000 per coin, $5.25 trillion at $250,000, $10.5 trillion at $500,000, and $21 trillion at $1 million. He stressed that reaching those market-capitalization figures would not require an equal amount of new money: prices are set at the margin, so comparatively modest buying could have a large effect if available supply is limited.

A potential new source of demand is retirement-plan access. Bloomberg, as cited by Jay V, reported that the White House is reviewing a final rule that would allow Bitcoin in 401(k) plans. Jay V said access through those plans could bring billions of dollars into Bitcoin, though the rule was still under review. He also cited investor William Middlecoup, who said his $400 million fund had added Bitcoin because it was “the fastest horse in the race.” Grant Cardone said he plans to buy 10,000 Bitcoin and described it as a scarce, “pristine,” capex-free asset; at roughly $100,000 per coin, that target would be worth about $1 billion.

The episode also examined a possible source of selling pressure. Trump Media transferred 4,259 Bitcoin, worth about $343 million and roughly 30% of its reported holdings, to Crypto.com. Jay V said the Bitcoin came from wallets holding collateral for the company’s 2028 convertible notes. Noteholders can demand cash on November 30, and if all do, Trump Media could face a bill of nearly $1 billion. The company has warned the SEC that it may need to sell Bitcoin if refinancing falls short, but the transfer was not confirmed as a sale; earlier transfers to Crypto.com were described as custody management. Jay V speculated that news of the transfer may have contributed to Bitcoin’s fall, without presenting that link as confirmed.

Jay V said Tether’s CEO had described Bitcoin as the only cryptocurrency capable of scaling to a trillion AI agents, with Lightning serving as a sophisticated transport layer. He speculated that AI agents could eventually transact in and accumulate Bitcoin. Peter Schiff, by contrast, called Bitcoin a bubble with no value and urged investors to sell; Jay V countered that Schiff had issued similar warnings for about 15 years, including when Bitcoin was around $10.