2506: $3 Million Bitcoin WARNING - Citi Just Published Its Guide To Buying Bitcoin

Bitwise’s 2036 Bitcoin scenarios range from $130,000 in a bear case to $1.6 million in a base case and just under $3.7 million in a bull case. The base case implies annual growth of 34.3%, while the bull case is built on Bitcoin capturing portions of existing markets rather than replacing currencies or taking over the financial system. These are model outcomes, not certainties, and depend on the assumed market shares.

In Bitwise’s bull case, Bitcoin’s modeled allocations total about $77 trillion. They include 5% of projected $303 trillion in institutional investment assets, 2.5% of $146 trillion in emerging-market currencies, and roughly half of a projected $109 trillion gold-and-Bitcoin store-of-value market. The model also assigns Bitcoin $1.9 trillion from a 10% share of offshore wealth, $905 billion from 5% of national reserves, $445 billion from 5% of U.S. corporate treasuries, and $32 billion from global remittances. At nearly $3.7 million per coin, the 21 million maximum supply would imply a fully diluted value of about $77 trillion; the model notes an $83,000 Bitcoin price.

Citi is expanding client access to Bitcoin ETFs, and the host argues that easier access could encourage adoption and support prices. He cites Citi’s more than 200 million clients and expects major banks eventually to custody Bitcoin, offer related products, and recommend them to customers. He also invokes Michael Saylor’s prediction that Bitcoin will reach $10 million by the time a person’s preferred bank recommends and sells it. The episode presents this as a possible adoption pathway, not a confirmed timetable or Citi price forecast.

The host says 199 public companies hold 1.266 million Bitcoin, worth more than $97 billion and representing over 6% of Bitcoin’s eventual supply; he says Saylor holds roughly 900,000 Bitcoin. He also reports that Tether holds 150,000 Bitcoin, worth $11.5 billion, while stressing a distinction between Bitcoin and stablecoins: stablecoins can be frozen or deleted, whereas Bitcoin cannot. As examples of freezeability, he cites the freezing of over half the funds from an alleged $6.4 billion Binance hack and Mercado Bitcoin’s report that $11 million connected to a $40 million hack was frozen with help from Tether, Circle, and Chainalysis. Mercado Bitcoin said customers suffered no losses.

The host points to Bhutan’s King signing a royal decree creating a central bank that can hold Bitcoin, and to El Salvador’s adoption of Bitcoin, which began around Nayib Bukele’s 2021 start, as possible precedents for other countries. He predicts powerful nations will acquire Bitcoin whether or not they have announced it. Separately, Leon Wankham argues that Bitcoin could overtake and eventually outgrow real estate by market capitalization. The host compares a $1 quadrillion Bitcoin valuation with estimates of global real estate value ranging from $600 trillion to $1 quadrillion, and argues Bitcoin is a superior store of value because it has no tenants, termites, or annual property taxes.

Market and regulatory developments provide a counterpoint to the adoption case. The host says BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF recorded $405 million in outflows on November 2, its largest daily outflow in more than four months, while Bitcoin remained above $77,000 despite those outflows and the Binance hack. He also says new SEC guidance clarifies that digital commodities such as Bitcoin are not securities, and that Bitcoin falls under the CFTC rather than the SEC.