Bitcoin's September Trading Range Just BROKE DOWN

Bitcoin’s September trading range broke down during a broad technology sell-off, with Bitcoin around $77,000 after trading in the $80,000s; it remained above $60,000 and its 50-week moving average, while the Nasdaq was down a little more than 10% as of the previous close. Ryan said markets were absorbing bad news unusually well, which he has seen precede rebounds once uncertainty clears. He argued that clarity on the midterms, interest rates, and possible U.S. action against Iran could let regulatory progress and institutional adoption become more important drivers.

The host characterized crypto apathy as a lack of new capital entering, rather than investors actively withdrawing. Four or five of the nine Bitcoin ETFs reportedly had no inflows for nearly three weeks, although BlackRock’s product continued to dominate overall flows. The host wondered whether prolonged inactivity could lead BlackRock to shelve a planned third product. Ryan said financial advisers are asking more informed questions but many have not allocated to crypto, with conversations now extending beyond Bitcoin to stablecoins, tokenization, Solana, Hyperliquid, XRP, round-the-clock trading, tokenized stocks, Visa, Mastercard, and the GENIUS Act.

Tokenized stocks remain a contested area: about 70% of stocks intended for tokenization at OKX had reportedly opted out, and the speakers said Nasdaq was telling companies to opt out, while ICE was described as encouraging participation. They suggested some firms may be pausing because the technology is unfamiliar or they have been advised against proceeding. Trading volume is a central incentive, and the speakers expected adoption to build gradually over the next two to five years. They also described growing connections between traditional and crypto markets as an opportunity for firms to attract business and for market makers to exploit price differences across venues.

The episode characterized the Binance incident as the biggest hack ever, but provided no technical details about the breach. Binance reportedly saw $11 billion leave over 46 hours; after deposits and withdrawals improved, net outflows were about $5.3 billion, and the speakers said the outflow appeared to have stopped. One speaker described the loss as $6.5 billion but called it small against broader capital flows, comparing it with roughly half a day of U.S. debt and $30 billion in annual credit-card fraud; the speakers said Binance covered losses quickly. They also cited a $46 million breach at Mercado Bitcoin, described as Brazil’s largest crypto exchange, and warned that further incidents may emerge. North Korea denied involvement in the Binance incident, and one speaker said a North Korean representative had hinted the United States was responsible; the speakers said tracing where the coins end up could help identify the perpetrator.

The speakers said Bitcoin itself had not been hacked and attributed the recent incident to an Ethereum-related component, but warned that retail investors may mistake a crypto-related breach for a Bitcoin breach. One speaker called that confusion a significant adoption hurdle over the next 24 to 36 months, and another expected AI-driven hacks to become more frequent. They presented regulated custody as one option, not a universal answer: investors face trade-offs among self-custody, exchange custody, and regulated custodians, which can offer segregated customer assets and bankruptcy-remote structures. Ryan said moving Bitcoin from cold storage into an ETF through an in-kind transfer can take one to four days, or several weeks with some partners, and preserves cost basis without triggering tax. The minimum had fallen from $10 million to $3 million, and one speaker cited a $15,000 fee for a Morgan Stanley-related transfer.

Ryan said Bitwise raised its 2036 Bitcoin target to $1.6 million, a figure he considers conservative, while a forecast near $3 million is also being discussed. Bitwise expects Bitcoin to be the best-performing asset over the next decade, with lower volatility and low correlation to other assets; the notes describe a roughly 35% annualized return in a 10-year forecast, versus about 10% for JPMorgan’s Bitcoin forecast and about 8% for stocks. Ryan cited U.S. deficits of $2 trillion, heavy government spending elsewhere, record central-bank gold purchases, and early institutional Bitcoin allocations as long-term tailwinds. He expects deeper liquidity and institutional market structure to reduce volatility and cushion declines, while warning that Bitcoin’s sharp swings can liquidate leveraged traders and likening leveraged trading to gambling on market direction.