2501: $1.6 Million Bitcoin FLOODGATES - Wall Street Is Running Out of BTC to Buy

Bitwise’s 2036 base case puts Bitcoin at $1.6 million per coin, based on roughly 34% annualized growth; the host cited a 34.3% rate. Its bear and bull cases are $130,000 and $3.6 million. The forecast is built from possible allocations across several markets: in 2035, Bitwise models $303 trillion in institutional assets and $146 trillion in emerging-market currencies, where a 1% Bitcoin allocation would represent about $3 trillion and $1.4 trillion, respectively. It also models Bitcoin taking 25% of a $109 trillion gold-and-Bitcoin store-of-value market, alongside demand from offshore wealth, national reserves, corporate treasuries and remittances.

Across those modeled sources, Bitwise’s estimated Bitcoin market value reaches about $33.6 trillion. That is broadly consistent with the roughly $33 trillion implied by valuing all 21 million Bitcoin at $1.6 million each, although the calculations describe a fully diluted supply rather than the amount readily available for purchase. The host’s central argument is that buyers will compete for coins held by investors who are unwilling to sell, making the available float smaller than many assume. He pointed to Michael Saylor, who began buying in 2020 and is approaching 900,000 BTC, as one example of an accumulating holder.

U.S. government holdings could add another source of demand. Senator Bill Hagerty said the United States holds 200,000 BTC, intends to buy more and does not plan to sell its reserve. The administration’s stated target is 1 million BTC through net-neutral strategies; the transcript suggests it could take five years to reach that amount and says the proposed reserve would be held for 20 years. These plans would not mean immediate purchases at the target scale, but they reinforce the episode’s focus on governments entering a market where long-term holders may not readily supply coins.

The episode also described institutional exposure arriving through Bitcoin-linked securities and treasury companies rather than direct ownership. The host said Vanguard, with $13.3 trillion in assets, reportedly has $96 million in indirect Bitcoin exposure through Strife, while its managed funds also have exposure through Strategy; Vanguard was described as one of Strategy’s largest institutional shareholders. He said both Vanguard and BlackRock hold shares in Bitcoin-treasury companies, and that investors may use Strategy shares or BlackRock’s iBIT instead of holding BTC directly or launching their own ETF. Germany’s fourth-largest asset manager, DekaBank, disclosed a first purchase of 104,921 Strategy shares.

The host called Strategy and Bitcoin ETFs “wrappers,” describing Strategy as a leveraged Bitcoin play. He said Michael Saylor discussed Bitcoin and Strategy’s STRC digital-credit product with Charles Schwab, and that Strategy uses proceeds from products such as STRC to buy Bitcoin. Jay V separately expects Bitcoin to reach $1 million by 2029 and gave a target of $1.1 million, before the next halving scheduled for April 2028. These views point to strong expectations, but the episode’s figures are forecasts and targets rather than guaranteed outcomes.

Jay V characterized interest from sovereign wealth funds, central banks, nation-states, corporations and royal families as a global “hash war” and an example of Bitcoin game theory. The transcript cited a Dubai royal-family-linked company announcing a $1.5 billion Bitcoin and real-estate treasury strategy, and Russia’s central bank confirming that self-custodial Bitcoin wallets can be used for international payments. Those examples suggest potential uses and buyers beyond U.S. investment products, while leaving the pace and scale of adoption uncertain.

Market indicators supplied additional context, not a promise of future gains. Fidelity Digital Assets reported that Bitcoin holders’ unrealized-profit NUPL rose from 0.09 to 0.36 last quarter. The transcript says periods near 0.36 historically coincided with a median one-year Bitcoin return of 93%, while explicitly noting that history does not guarantee that result. The host also said U.S. M2 reached a record and grew by more than $1.08 trillion during the year, arguing that money creation and reduced dollar purchasing power could act as Bitcoin catalysts.