Bitwise Sees $1.6 Million Bitcoin Ahead | Matt Cole

Bitwise’s average-case forecast is Bitcoin at $1.6 million by 2036, based on a 34.3% annualized return over 10 years. The model assumes Bitcoin captures 1% of institutional assets and 25% of the store-of-value market, which Bitwise now estimates at $110 trillion, up from $91 trillion last year. Scott called those assumptions defensible rather than especially ambitious. Bitwise’s bear case is $130,686 and its bull case is $3 million, although another speaker described the bull case as $3.6 million. Matt Cole summarized the bear, base and bull scenarios as roughly 4.6%, 34% and 46% annualized growth, respectively, and emphasized the upside skew: the bear case is about 30 percentage points below the base case, while the bull case is 12 points above it.

Cole said Strive’s published target is about $500,000 per Bitcoin by 2030, implying roughly 50% annualized growth. He argued that Bitcoin’s outlook should be considered against a weakening US dollar and mounting fiat-debt pressures, which could be compounded if superintelligence-driven abundance slows dollar velocity and reduces tax receipts. In his view, demand for store-of-value assets will grow as fiat currencies persist, while Bitcoin’s fixed supply makes it a potential beneficiary of debasement. He cautioned that the shift away from fiat will take more than 10 years and that long-term Bitcoin returns are difficult to predict. If Bitcoin reaches the millions, he suggested, the distinction between $3 million and $10 million or $15 million may matter less. Bitcoin’s volatility, he said, reflects its emergence as a potential leading store of value, though a store of value should ultimately be boring.

A report cited in the discussion put public-company Bitcoin holdings at 1.3 million, up 31% in 14 months, with Strategy responsible for 71% of the increase. Purchases outside Strategy had fallen 91%; 50 of 205 companies with a Bitcoin history bought Bitcoin in the prior six months, while 44 sold. Monthly sale entries rose from nine in 2025 to 18 in 2026. Cole argued that treasury companies should first build cash flow and then use what they earn to buy Bitcoin. Being first to adopt a business identity is not, by itself, an investment thesis, he said, and he expects companies without clear strategies to fold, followed by consolidation among a smaller group of winners. He described Strive’s lead in digital credit as a larger moat than expected and said 21 and Orange Juice are pursuing cash-flow strategies for different investor bases.

Cole said Strive’s digital-credit strategy aims to amplify Bitcoin returns sustainably: if Bitcoin outperforms Strive’s cost of capital, the balance-sheet strategy can outperform Bitcoin. He attributed much of Strategy’s and Metaplanet’s outperformance in the 2024–2025 bull market to issuing common equity at a premium, which he views as unsustainable without an underlying business engine. Strive could instead buy back stock as its balance sheet grows, potentially outperforming Bitcoin even if its common equity does not. Cole described SATA as designed for price stability and SATS for income stability. SATS has a fixed rate for investors seeking dependable income over a multiyear holding period, and he said it offers nearly a 16% return to investors willing to hold for one, two or three years. Some variable-rate preferred investors worry rates could fall to 7% or 8% in five to 10 years. Cole expects SATS could eventually be larger than SATA, though Strive is agnostic about which draws more demand.

Cole and the host questioned whether self-custody has been presented as simpler than it is. Cole said it demands substantial work, especially as holdings grow; the security plan for $1,000 in Bitcoin may not be adequate for a balance that could grow from $1 million to $10 million. The host suggested an ETF may suit investors who want Bitcoin exposure but are not seeking sovereignty, while noting that their own hardware-wallet and multisig practices also need to adapt as new information emerges. Cole expects AI-related security risks to intensify over the next several months to a couple of years, amid vulnerabilities in legacy hardware, software and code. Some holders may temporarily move away from self-custody, he said, but he expects it to regain favor as protections improve. He urged people to strengthen security for Bitcoin, passwords and family members who may be less alert to online risks.

The host described Bitcoin’s market as resembling summer 2023, when a major move was followed by falling volatility, now near its lows. IT Tech PL reported exchange net flow turning positive for the first time since September 21, suggesting holders had stopped withdrawing Bitcoin but sellers had not yet arrived in size. Robinhood’s crypto revenue was down 55% year over year but up 20% quarter over quarter. A prediction market showed only 24 people expecting a new Bitcoin all-time high by mid-2027 and assigned 17% odds to Bitcoin exceeding $99,999 this year; the host considered those odds too low and said a move above $100,000 this year was very possible. The host also called the DTCC’s live tokenization service a major digital-asset adoption milestone.