Bitcoin's Bear Market Is OVER - But Wall Street Is Split

Alex Thorn argues Bitcoin’s bear market ended months ago, with the June lows likely marking the bottom, and views current conditions as a chance to add and hold. Austin Federa also thinks Bitcoin bottomed in June, but says investors remain confused and unusually alert to the risk of another crash. The outlook is far from settled on Wall Street: Galaxy sees a bull market ahead, while Bernstein has lowered its outlook for Coinbase, Circle, Robinhood and other crypto stocks.

The discussion cast market volatility as a broader feature of today’s trading environment, driven by low liquidity, longer trading hours, more-connected markets and new ways to hedge. Commodities are being repriced amid inflation and AI investment, and Bitcoin could move sharply in either direction. One speaker sees wider exposure and easier access as reasons buyers may step in during price declines, while noting roughly $730 million in IBIT outflows at one point. Later, IBIT recorded $110 million in inflows while other spot Bitcoin ETFs had zero flows; the periods were not specified. The lack of outside interest could indicate that attention is near a bottom, and one speaker called Bitcoin prices in the $70,000s an opportunity relative to where it might trade in 12 to 18 months.

Federa said investors are bearish on the U.S. dollar but remain uncertain about shifting into Bitcoin, including over concerns such as quantum computing. Speakers also described crypto’s demand and institutional adoption as substantial: one called the Bitcoin ETF response more successful than any ETF in history by orders of magnitude and linked that evidence of demand to Larry Fink’s commitment to Bitcoin. 13F filings showed large spot Bitcoin ETF positions at Citadel, Millennium and Jane Street, alongside short CME futures positions. The discussion suggested Bitcoin can serve different roles: earlier buyers may seek wealth gains, while family offices and very high-net-worth investors may value wealth preservation and asymmetric upside. Some may hold Bitcoin in vault structures alongside real estate, yield and DeFi assets, or use wrapped Bitcoin as collateral that smart contracts can release if payments are missed.

Speakers argued that crypto’s contribution is primarily expanding access to financial markets, not making Bitcoin a routine payment method. DeFi and Bitcoin-based services can lower participation barriers for people traditional banks have been reluctant to serve, including customers with small deposits. Tokenization could widen access to assets and reduce settlement costs: the discussion cited tokenized uranium trading without physical settlement, as well as access to U.S. Treasuries and tokenized Tesla. One speaker disputed a Wall Street Journal ad warning CEOs that tokenization threatens securities, arguing that it could increase trading and liquidity and reduce the need for intermediaries such as transfer agents. Speakers also expect 24/7 settlement and on-chain listings to broaden market access, potentially giving companies substantial liquidity without a New York Stock Exchange listing.

That expansion depends on market infrastructure improving. DoubleZero is building a finance-optimized network using dedicated fiber to move market data, trades and blockchain consensus faster than the public internet; it launched Edge for Builders on testnet, letting anyone publish a monetizable low-latency data feed. The discussion described crypto’s markets as better integrated in liquidity and access, but still fragile compared with familiar high-frequency trading systems. Reliable transaction ordering and landing remain concerns for institutions, even as one speaker said MEV is largely solved on most networks. Paying multiple companies to land a transaction reliably on Solana or Ethereum was called unacceptable. Speakers also expect AI-built trading programs and agents to lower barriers to sophisticated strategies, potentially navigating exchanges and seeking best execution, though the timing and usability of such interfaces remain uncertain.

The speakers paired optimism about market growth with warnings about risk and standards. Regulated, onshore U.S. trading firms were described as sources of liquidity and stability because misconduct could put their licenses at risk, while competition among market makers helps capture inefficiencies. By contrast, Pump.fun and other unregulated markets were cited as examples of manipulation, with some meme-coin markets so lopsided they resemble scams. One speaker said meme coins should be treated as entertainment rather than investments, and argued that trading them needs clear rules and disclosure of the house edge and participants. Self-custody was also described as carrying real risks, potentially greater than using major U.S. institutions. The broader claim was that crypto should not be dismissed because its early evolution includes both good and bad, but growth in access and instant settlement must be matched by greater stability and predictability.