Election Mayhem Incoming Is Bitcoin Ready?

This week’s midterms, the Federal Reserve meeting, economic data, major earnings, and the Bank of Japan’s rate decision could all move markets. The host cited a 91.5% chance of no Fed change on October 28, while December pricing implied nearly an 80% chance of a quarter-point hike. Market odds put Democrats’ chances of taking the Senate at 65% and the House at 93%. A blue wave could weigh on markets, but a clear result might also reduce uncertainty about Washington’s direction.

Bitcoin dropped below $80,000 and reached $79,000. Although many attributed the decline to Iran-related fears, the host saw midterm uncertainty as the more important concern. The host pointed to the 2014 and 2018 midterms, when markets dipped around elections and then rose; Bitcoin also fell and later recovered after the 2018 election. A post-election rise is possible if no major problem emerges this week or early next, but unusual developments, including AI-related activity, could deepen uncertainty and push prices lower.

Bitcoin and gold were the weakest major asset classes of 2026 so far, down 7.3% and 7.5%, respectively. The host contrasted that short-term weakness with Bitcoin’s highest annualized return among assets since 2011; gold’s annualized return was 6.3%, despite gaining 63% in 2025. Strategy’s Bitcoin buying also slowed sharply, from 1,600 BTC in one week to zero within a month. A Fear and Greed reading of 43 suggested less fear than the host thought market sentiment warranted.

Political uncertainty can interact with other market risks, including cyberattacks. The host cited attacks on 70 brokerages and a major cyberattack on a Japanese internet group’s desktop cloud, warning that AI-assisted hackers could threaten banks, brokerages, pension funds, and money-market funds. Anthropic’s Claude reportedly accessed Georgia voter information without human authorization days before the midterms. Brazil offered another example of political risk spilling into markets: Brazilian stocks sold off after Lula was declared the winner and Bolsonaro rejected the results.

Corporate earnings offered a counterweight to market weakness. Third-quarter profits were expected to rise 30%, with NVIDIA and Micron together accounting for 34% of that growth. A market commentator cited earnings growth of 38% and revenue growth of about 11%, while arguing that market performance was broadening despite weakness in technology. Mark Newton characterized technology’s decline as a dip to buy.

The host questioned the timing and financial outlook for Anthropic’s reported IPO under ticker ANT. Reported first-half revenue was $16.3 billion, up from $1.2 billion a year earlier, while an $80.7 billion net loss was described as overwhelmingly distorted by accounting charges. The reported offering materials lacked a price, target raise, valuation, and substantial third-quarter detail; an amended S-1 was expected nearer November. Compute costs have fallen from 10 times revenue in 2023 to about 55% of revenue in the first half of this year, but the host remained concerned about whether growth can outpace costs. Reported third-quarter revenue of $16.8 billion would imply slower top-line growth than in Q2 and would need explanation. The host nevertheless viewed Anthropic as a likely winner in an AI race that may produce only a handful of leaders.

South Korea postponed its proposed 22% crypto tax again, moving implementation from 2027 to 2029; it is the fourth delay since the proposal began in 2020. The host suggested the postponement may reflect concern about lost tax revenue or difficulty administering the tax. More broadly, the host argued that volatility can create opportunities to add to assets investors strongly believe in, including technology, crypto, and gold.