2498: $2 Million Bitcoin THIS CYCLE - Strive Just Bought $511 Million in BTC

Strive CEO Matt Cole said the company bought 6,182 Bitcoin for $511 million, paying an average of $82,700 per coin and lifting its holdings to 43,000 Bitcoin. The purchase was presented as part of an accelerating corporate race to hold Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. As of October 25, Michael Saylor said Strategy held 848,517 Bitcoin and $5 billion in USD assets, and had repurchased $205 million of STRC.

JayV described the scale of corporate accumulation with other holdings: Metaplanet had 44,000 Bitcoin and 21 Capital had 43,500, while Vanguard had bought $7.5 million of Metaplanet shares. Ten major Bitcoin-holding companies collectively controlled more than 1.1 million Bitcoin, which JayV compared with 6.7 years of newly mined supply. Beyond those firms, he cited roughly 200 or more companies holding at least 50 Bitcoin each.

The transcript puts new issuance at 450 Bitcoin per day, or 164,250 per year, worth about $13 billion annually at $80,000 per coin. JayV argued that the supply available for sale is smaller than the circulating total: Chainalysis estimates 3–4 million Bitcoin are lost or inaccessible, while DarkFaust’s estimate, cited by JayV, puts 15.6 million Bitcoin—74% of the eventual total—in long-term holders’ hands. That definition covers coins that have not moved for at least 155 days.

Against that supply backdrop, JayV framed $2 million per Bitcoin as a possible outcome if demand competes for scarce available supply while holders resist selling. The transcript estimates that price would imply a $42 trillion fully diluted valuation, about 2.3% of estimated global gross assets of $1.8 quadrillion. JayV emphasized that reaching a $42 trillion market capitalization would not require $42 trillion of new investment: market capitalization values outstanding coins at the current price, and institutions could not accumulate millions of Bitcoin at a fixed $80,000 price.

A Monte Carlo model cited in the episode assigns a 95% probability to Bitcoin exceeding $200,000 by 2030. Its projections put Bitcoin at $170,000 by the end of 2027, $266,000 by the end of 2028, and $537,000 by the end of 2030, with a median of $1.48 million by 2034. The model’s bull case reaches $5.62 million after 2034. The host said he had not previously seen the simulation and invited listeners to assess it, leaving the projections as a scenario rather than a settled forecast.

The host also cited $2.6 billion in Bitcoin ETF inflows during September, $442 million in purchases the prior week, and $175 million in net ETF selling for October to date. He said Charles Schwab expected Bitcoin to reach $100,000 within six months and that Coinbase was enabling JPMorgan, Citi, and PNC clients to buy Bitcoin through banking apps. Richard Byworth suggested the US may have been buying Bitcoin for its strategic reserve, but the host treated secret US accumulation and a possible million-Bitcoin target as speculation.