Bitcoin Could Swing 30% Either Way In The Next Two Months | Gracy Chen

Gracy Chen said Bitcoin could move 30% in either direction over the next one or two months, and viewed both outcomes as reasonable. She described current conditions as a “monkey market”: price action is unpredictable, and there is no clear bull or bear trend. Her outlook is therefore not a directional forecast so much as a warning that large swings remain plausible in the near term.

Crypto trading activity remains subdued compared with before 10/10. Chen said average volume across the top exchanges fell about 30% after that point, with smaller exchanges potentially experiencing even steeper declines. At Bitget, non-crypto assets had represented nearly 40% of trading volume earlier this year, led by tokenized commodities and U.S. stock perpetuals.

Chen said the Bitget incident began on September 24 at 6:31 p.m. UTC, when the exchange detected unauthorized transfers and started blocking withdrawals. Attackers exploited a previously unknown vulnerability in a third-party security product, obtained high-level internal credentials, and transferred about 388 million to addresses they controlled; the transcript did not specify the currency. Chen said Bitget’s private key was not compromised, its “code wallet” was untouched, and independent investigators found no evidence that the attack came from inside the company.

Chen said no users lost money because Bitget covered the losses with company capital. The exchange’s protection fund was restored to $300 million within a week, and Bitget reported a 131% proof-of-reserves rate after the incident. The recovery of the transferred funds remains uncertain: Chen said only about $1 million or $2 million had been frozen at that point, and recovering the rest could take years. She also said there was no formal attribution of the attack to Lazarus.

In response, Bitget revoked and restructured credentials, strengthened withdrawal credentials and processes, and improved how it assesses and monitors third-party products. The incident highlighted the risk posed by external security systems and privileged access, even when an exchange’s private key has not been compromised. Chen’s account emphasized both the limits of current recovery efforts and the company’s stated ability to absorb the losses without passing them on to users.

Looking beyond the incident and short-term volatility, Chen said she is optimistic about tokenized real-world assets, AI tools for trading research and risk management, and closer integration between crypto and traditional finance. Bitget is applying for U.S. licenses and hopes to launch in the country next year; Chen said the company is committed to entering the market properly.