Catalyst Countdown Technical Analysis with Tim Warren

The episode opened against a sharp global selloff: Paul reported $1.1 trillion wiped from U.S. markets and nearly $1 trillion across six major Asian markets. He cited the S&P 500 down 980, Nvidia losing $200 billion in value, SpaceX $130 billion, and Meta $110 billion. Tim Warren said China’s market was technically in a bear market after a 20% fall, with hacks targeting Asian platforms among the factors contributing to the decline.

Warren said Bitcoin broke above a falling channel on October 20, accompanied by a daily buy signal and positive money flow. Bitcoin ETFs had recorded more than $1 billion in inflows over the preceding three days, though he lacked current-day data. He said daily buy signals from his indicator have historically had roughly an 80% chance of taking Bitcoin back to its previous high or higher, but emphasized that signals can fail. He remained bullish while Bitcoin held above $80,000, but would reconsider if it broke below that level.

Warren had not bought Bitcoin with its RSI above 70 and had expected a shallower pullback toward $82,500–$83,000. He said Bitcoin could fall below $80,000 again; if the breakout and buy signal were invalidated, he would watch $75,000–$72,000, including the 200-day moving average near $73,000. He might buy either a move higher or a return to $75,000 support. For hypothetical $10,000 in dry powder, he might invest $4,000–$5,000 if he believed a bottom was forming and keep the rest available, replenishing reserves with day-trading profits and monthly income.

Warren said Solana had a daily buy signal and had broken above trend resistance, making him cautiously optimistic about another move higher while allowing for a pullback. He identified $103–$102 as a possible pullback zone and $100 as support; below $100, he would watch $90–$93, including an order block near $93 on the 12-hour chart. He would trust the signal until it showed signs of failure, but was unsure whether Alpenglow news was cushioning Solana’s decline. Paul said Alpenglow was described as reducing mainnet transaction time from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds.

Ethereum’s daily buy signal had historically been useful for identifying higher highs, Warren said, and its chart resembled Bitcoin’s as it retested a broken resistance trend line. Ethereum had reached its first downside target near $2,350, but not the lower $2,250 target. Warren was not too concerned while it held around $2,330; a loss of that level would bring $2,250 back into consideration as a possible buy area, while a hold could open a move toward $2,800 or $3,100. Separately, a speaker estimated Ethereum could reach a $2 trillion–$2.5 trillion market capitalization, or roughly $15,000–$20,000 per ETH, with $3 trillion–$4 trillion described as a high estimate. JPMorgan announced it would build its stablecoin through Ethereum.

Warren said political perceptions can move markets whether or not they reflect reality, citing crypto’s rally on expectations around Trump’s election win. He disagreed with the view that rising odds of a Democratic sweep have little effect on crypto, pointing to apparent overlaps between Polymarket moves and Bitcoin rallies or dips. A bullish midterm outcome remained possible if a Democratic win was already expected or investors saw a return to Democratic leadership as positive for crypto; Bitcoin’s path into the midterms, Warren said, depended on holding $80,000 support.

Warren said he owns Chainlink and Avalanche but was sticking with Chainlink, citing its broad partnerships and leading oracle position. He estimated Chainlink could reach at least a $50 billion market capitalization by 2030, with $100 billion–$150 billion possible, while acknowledging uncertainty; he said $100–$200 per token was possible, and his former $700 expectation now required the stars to align by 2030, though $200–$250 remained doable. He viewed Hyperliquid’s correction as needed and would turn bullish after a daily buy signal and a break above the chart’s trend; if prior signals’ pattern repeated, it could move above $98 and toward resistance near $115. His long-term market-cap estimate was $500 billion–$1 trillion.

Circle was trading around $85 after reaching nearly $300. Warren said the Genius Act clearing its final hurdle was positive, but the law would not be live until January and banks could still appeal to the Supreme Court. Circle had been rejected at trendline resistance; a move above $94 could restore a daily buy signal. He would consider buying on extreme weakness or on strength above roughly $96–$97, near $100. Citibank’s $243 target was above consensus and cited Circle’s liquidity, compliance, head start, and ARC as potential advantages in becoming a preferred settlement rail. Warren called $243 potentially conservative and $1,000 a realistic long-term target, conditional on stablecoin adoption and Circle’s potential expansion into fintech and connections to banks and Ethereum.