2493: $500,000 Bitcoin BUY SIGNAL - The Chart Behind 5,000% Gains Just Flashed AGAIN

JV says an unnamed on-chain signal that preceded Bitcoin’s largest bull markets is flashing again. He points to gains of 5,000% in 2017, 600% in 2021, and 300% from 2023 to 2025, arguing that Bitcoin’s 44% rise from its bottom so far leaves room for a much larger advance. He also says Bitcoin’s timing and position relative to its 200-day moving average support further gains, and declares the bear market invalidated and a new bull market underway. These are JV’s interpretations of the signal and price action, not a guarantee that the earlier rallies will recur.

The central price target discussed is $500,000. From about $83,500, that would represent a gain of roughly 499%, less than the 600% rise JV cites for 2021. He notes that Bitcoin’s largest historical price moves occurred within 10-day windows, so a repeat of the pattern could mean a rapid upswing. Peter Brandt sees a good chance the current bull-market cycle reaches $500,000, although his highest-probability outcome is above $300,000 rather than specifically at $500,000.

JV’s supply argument starts with Bitcoin’s 21 million cap: more than 20 million have been mined, leaving fewer than 1 million to be issued through 2140. Current issuance is 450 BTC per day, worth about $37 million at a price of $83,000. The April 2028 halving is expected to cut that daily flow in half. JV argues that institutional demand, declining new issuance, and long-term holders’ reluctance to sell could tighten available supply and create a supply shock.

To illustrate the scale of new issuance, JV says a $1 billion allocation could buy nearly 27 days’ worth of newly mined Bitcoin at current prices. That comparison excludes Bitcoin already held outside liquid circulation, which he says would further limit readily available supply. He estimates Bitcoin’s market capitalization at about $1.66 trillion at $83,000 per coin and roughly $10 trillion at $500,000, an increase of about $8.3 trillion. He cautions that this would not require $8.3 trillion in new cash: market capitalization applies the marginal price to the circulating supply.

Institutional activity is another part of the bullish case. JV reports $549.9 million in US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows over the prior two trading sessions, with the previous day’s inflow the highest since October of the prior year. He says BlackRock’s iBit is the largest Bitcoin ETF, holding roughly 805,000 BTC, and describes Strategy as the next-largest corporate treasury holder. Strategy began accumulating Bitcoin in 2020; JV says more than 200 companies have since adopted a similar treasury approach. Matt Cole says Strive plans to buy another 20,000 Bitcoin soon and calls 50% balance-sheet growth its “sweet spot.”

JPMorgan Asset Management’s base case, as presented by JV, projects Bitcoin to outperform US stocks, bonds, and gold over the next decade. Its annualized return estimates are 10% for Bitcoin, 7.5% for US stocks, 5.5% for gold, and 3.2% for US cash. The projection reinforces the episode’s long-term demand case, while the $500,000 target depends on the bullish signal repeating, new and institutional demand absorbing limited supply, and market prices continuing to rise.