Mudwater's Pack Economics Spark Debate, SimpleFarmer Introduces Books

Mudwater’s launch was described as unusually strong, with one speaker calling it potentially the greatest modern TCG launch. Packs traded around $39–$41, after reaching 0.391, while more than 70% of the initial supply had been distributed; the host put listed supply at 333 packs, or 13.87 boxes. The host cited about $146,000 in trading volume, including $43,000 in the prior 24 hours, and roughly $7,500 in fees generated. He argued that free claims alone did not explain the price, noting that airdropped packs often sell off and Mudwater had risen about 35% in a day. Another speaker expected claimants to sell first, then prices to dip and gradually recover.

Digital unopened packs, boxes, and cases share in fees, with boxes weighted more heavily than packs and cases more heavily than boxes; opened cards do not qualify. The host said digital holders receive 50% of fees, equivalent to about 2.5% of trading volume, and that roughly $4,000 had been directed back to holders so far. He was unsure whether that was a good result, but said the upside could become substantial if trading reached billions of dollars. Raven Ape argued that excluding individual cards from fee sharing hurt the card market and favored sealed packs, proposing that collectors could combine cards into qualifying lots or complete sets. Dim disagreed, attributing prices to low circulating supply and incentives to buy and open packs.

The economics create a tension between opening packs to find cards and keeping them sealed to retain fee exposure. Speakers said the opening incentive was strong, citing a roughly $1 common-card floor, a rare chance at high-value pulls, and possible demand for eight rare cards among a 2.4 million-card supply. The stated hit-slot odds were 75% rare, 21% prestige, and 4% legendary; after more than 40,000 packs had been opened, speakers cited 191 legendary cards. They put non-foil legendary floors around $200–$215 and a foil legendary floor at 13 SOL, while warning that the foil market was thin. One speaker estimated a $40 pack could contain about $10 in cards in a worst-case scenario at a $1 card floor. The upside from a serialized one-of-one was described as substantial, but its odds were extremely low, and digital serialized pulls had not yet been seen.

Pack holders can keep items physical or digital, but not both at once; physical items can be digitized and digital items redeemed. Speakers said on-chain records make supply and pack-opening activity visible, while digital trading and custody may reduce transaction friction and theft risk. They also acknowledged that many TCG players prefer physical cards and in-person play, and that reaching audiences beyond Web3 holders may require stores or card events. Mudwater is live on Otherside, and an anime and a second series are expected to support awareness, but speakers disagreed about the cost and prospects of expanding beyond the club community. Set-completion rewards were floated as a way to encourage collecting and circulation, not promised; some speakers would pursue a complete set without any reward.

SimpleFarmer introduced The Books as an on-chain social-trading protocol that lets users back traders without copy-trading their transactions. A trader creates a Book for a week, month, or year, though the first must run for a week, and selects eligible tokens before the period begins, with two joker slots for later additions. Book tokens are minted along a bonding curve, and 75% of liquidity is placed in an ERC-6551 token-bound account to fund trades. At the end, trading freezes and anyone can trigger liquidation into ETH. The operator keeps 20% of net profits, while token holders can burn their tokens to claim their share. Books can have multiple traders, in which case they operate more like mutual funds. SimpleFarmer said launch was expected that week on Manter, with swaps routed through Manter, while the contracts could be integrated elsewhere.

The Books prompted disagreement over securities risk. Matthew argued that managers deploying others’ capital for performance-based payouts fit the textbook definition of a security, and warned that technical structures do not eliminate potential liability, particularly for managers and non-accredited participants. A defender described the arrangement as non-custodial, peer-to-peer, and governed by autonomous contracts, with no promise of managerial profits, while saying compliance and decentralization were priorities. Matthew said compliance claims about other tokens do not settle the legal question. Speakers also disagreed over whether Mudwater itself is a security, and acknowledged uncertainty in applying existing rules to emerging products. SimpleFarmer said he was personally comfortable collecting and selling Mudwater rewards while recognizing that the legal environment could change.