Crypto Rundown: JP Morgan Chooses Bitcoin as the Best Asset?!

JPMorgan’s 10-year outlook projects Bitcoin to deliver the highest compound annual return among the assets it compares, including US REITs, stocks, bonds, gold and cash. Hunter emphasized that this is a forecast, not an allocation recommendation: crypto is not yet included in the bank’s model portfolios. The outlook puts Bitcoin’s arithmetic return at roughly 21% and annualized volatility at 55%, with a return-to-volatility ratio of about 0.12, versus roughly 0.29 for diversified hedge funds. Large drawdowns help explain why Bitcoin’s projected compounded return differs from its arithmetic return, and make the forecast’s risk trade-off important.

Hunter said JPMorgan’s research reaches wealth managers and can shape long-term asset allocations because the bank sells research to outside managers. He saw the outlook as a positive signal for crypto and pointed to institutional activity, including IBIT’s largest inflows since October 2025. Separately, JPMorgan’s USD deposit token is live on Ethereum, extending from Base to Ethereum L1. It gives institutional clients an on-chain representation of cash alongside assets, collateral and counterparties. The speakers distinguished it from a stablecoin: the token is backed by a user’s bank deposit, while stablecoins are backed by reserves.

The Ethereum deployment was framed as validation of the network’s potential role in institutional on-chain finance, though banks are also developing permissioned rails. One speaker argued that stablecoins could become a major source of on-chain liquidity, much as cash supports traditional brokerage markets, and that moving capital on-chain can be valuable without more complex applications. Schwab has also launched Schwab Crypto, allowing its 40 million clients to buy Bitcoin directly in their Schwab accounts. Switzerland’s financial regulator approved the country’s first retail ETF investing directly in Bitcoin, subject to custody safeguards and clear risk disclosures, while warning that Bitcoin remains highly volatile. Switzerland does not currently have a Bitcoin reserve.

Hunter described markets as indecisive ahead of the midterm elections and an FOMC meeting. Bitcoin had fallen about 4–5% from the monthly open after closing the prior quarter with a bullish engulfing candle above the Q2 high. It had rejected the 20-month moving average and was contesting the yearly open at $87,500, while remaining near the prior range high. Hunter’s base case was a retest around $79,000, near the anchored VWAP from the all-time high, or around the yearly value-area high near $78,500. A move to $76,000–$78,000 was possible; more adverse surprises could bring $70,000–$72,000, but he did not consider that his base case.

Hunter said lower-time-frame rejections suggested continued range-bound trading, with a possible swing-long setup if Bitcoin swept a low and showed bullish RSI divergence near support. His upside markers were the yearly open, $92,000–$93,000, a move above a prior high toward $100,000, then $111,000 and eventually new highs. Bitcoin’s position above the 50-week moving average supported a possible bullish market-structure shift. A fall below $64,000 would weaken that setup and raise the possibility of tests near $53,000 or $40,000–$45,000, though Hunter called those outcomes very low probability. He had shifted from neutral to bullish and wanted to buy pullbacks, while stressing that both directions remained possible.

Ethereum had swept lows near $2,350, returned to its range and bounced around $2,320, but its apparent swing-failure pattern was not fully confirmed. A break below $2,320 could put the 200-day moving average in view, with $2,150 and $2,000–$2,050 as potential downside areas. Its short-term trend remained choppy, with the 20-day average crossing below the 50-day. Across markets, speakers described money moving from some technology and semiconductor stocks into financials and other sectors: the S&P 500 was near all-time highs even as CoreWeave and some AI-related stocks fell. One speaker called this a “bear bull market paradox” and noted that crypto, after lagging high-flying AI stocks, had been the best-performing asset in Q3. Hunter expected possible market resolution toward month-end and characterized Bitcoin’s two-to-three-week pullback of less than 10% as common.