Imminent Squeeze? Crypto Market Update

An imminent squeeze could be developing, but the midterm elections were a major source of uncertainty. On the October 20 recording, the host said the vote was about 13 days away. The average stock had been in a broad correction since June, driven by a momentum unwind, concerns about AI capital spending, wars, and election anxiety. One speaker thought the correction might be in its final innings, but expected another two to three unsettled weeks before a stronger year-end and further gains next year.

Scott Besin, as relayed by the host, argued that the US must grow its way out of debt through economic growth and tighter government spending. He remained positive on the US economy despite pressure from energy prices, while warning that Iran’s currency had collapsed and its economy risked sharp deterioration. Higher energy prices could sustain inflation and affect Federal Reserve decisions, but the host said the outlook would remain uncertain until after the midterms. One speaker said stocks could withstand rising rates if growth stayed strong and the Fed did not end the cycle prematurely; growth of 7%–8%, however, would probably be too hot. Letting the economy run hot could support wages and reduce unemployment, but would also risk higher inflation.

The host said Iran was prolonging engagement or negotiations with the US to deny Trump a political victory before the November midterms. A Democratic takeover of the House and Senate could also bring hearings or impeachment efforts that distract from negotiations. Oil fell 3% and then rebounded after reports of preliminary approval failed to produce a deal. The host questioned whether the price swings reflected manipulation but did not confirm that explanation.

Scott Rubner said institutions were deleveraging under rules tied to price or volatility while retail clients continued to buy dips. Retail buying of semiconductors, neoclouds, and memory stocks reached its highest rate in 16 weeks. Rubner said investors saw the midterms as a clearing event for risk, with AI potentially outperforming afterward, but clients were more willing to buy at higher prices than to add risk ahead of a major political event. A possible tech unwind could weigh on risk assets, while Bitcoin appeared to be seeing retail buying in the interim. One speaker expected the two weeks before the vote to be very volatile, and Citadel appeared to view a post-election shift as a possible clearing event for risk assets.

BlackRock’s ETF recorded a $65 million inflow on October 19, described as its largest since the start of 2026. BlackRock had also filed for a Bitcoin fund designed to limit losses to about 10% per tranche in exchange for capped gains. The host was unsure whether investors would choose it, but said it could appeal to traditional-finance newcomers. JPMorgan expected Bitcoin to outperform every major asset class over the next 10 years, with compound returns of around 10%; the host expected Bitcoin to do better and said BlackRock could benefit from both approaches.

Ethereum staking reached 43.8 million ETH, or 35.9% of supply, according to the Bitwise Q4 report. Staked amounts were rising as yields fell across Ethereum, Solana, Near Protocol, and other networks, while the host said institutions were holding through the decline. A Hong Kong institution listed a licensed digital-asset stablecoin for trading on Jupiter, prompting the host to ask whether China was entering DeFi through the platform, without presenting that as confirmed. Sharplink deployed $400 million in ETH to earn yield and was exploring restaking and DeFi to make its treasury more productive. Joe Lubin and Consensys sold $48 million worth of Sharplink, but the host said the ETH itself was not being sold; Lubin and other holders told regulators they were liquidating their positions. The host viewed BMNR as the most likely long-term winner among ETH digital-asset treasuries.