Market Selloff Incoming?

The market looked stalled, and the panel disagreed on whether it could make meaningful gains through year-end. Evan Aldo expects consolidation, with seasonal weakness and midterm-election risks but no major downside catalyst. Mark is more bullish, seeing potential for a rally from mid-November into December, while the December FOMC outlook could help determine the direction. Evan also sees a possible 5%–10% S&P 500 correction through year-end, followed by recovery and further upside after the October FOMC meeting. A decision to leave rates unchanged could weigh on markets temporarily, perhaps for about a month after the midterms.

For Bitcoin, Evan considers further consolidation or a healthy correction more likely than an immediate sustained rebound. He sees a dip below $80,000 as possible, with the mid-$70,000s another potential low and $69,000 a severe-case level near the weekly 200-day average. From roughly $82,000, he would hold; new buyers, he said, could dollar-cost average rather than wait for a lower entry. He sees a possible recovery to $92,000 by year-end or Q1 next year, leaving the near-term downside risk in tension with his expectation of a later rebound.

Evan has taken partial profits on riskier crypto positions and moved much of the proceeds into XLE and oil, which he expects to outperform Bitcoin and AI from October through year-end. He may rotate that allocation back into crypto within weeks to months. Paul pointed to fresh U.S. sanctions related to Iran as possible support for energy, and Evan named ExxonMobil and Occidental Petroleum as stocks for direct exposure. The shift reflects a near-term preference for energy, not a permanent exit from crypto.

Inflation and bond yields were another potential source of support for markets. A clip of Tom Lee forecast softer inflation over the next six months, which could allow the Fed to take a less hawkish stance and yields to fall; Evan agreed that both inflation and yields could ease. He cited the 30-year yield at 5.6 and the 10-year at 5.283, while his five-year figure was unclear. He also cautioned that investors selling a bond before maturity can incur a loss, so the potential benefit of falling yields does not remove the risk of selling early.

Evan sees Ethereum potentially bottoming around $2,000–$2,100, with $2,300 another possible low, before recovering to about $3,000 by year-end and perhaps $4,000 in Q1 or Q2. Paul contrasted that view with Tom Lee’s $5,000 year-end forecast and $50,000 long-term target. Paul also said BMNR was nearing 5% of Ethereum supply and speculated that it might turn to Solana or other tokens if it stopped buying Ethereum. For Solana, Evan’s strong-case year-end target is $140–$150, but a fall to $97 or $90 could push that outcome to Q1 or Q2 next year. He views NEAR as a hold despite possible weakness toward $4 or the high-$3 range, and sees promise in Chainlink only if it holds $11.

Charles Schwab has launched Bitcoin and Ethereum trading for 40 million clients at a fee of 0.75% per trade, with Solana, Avalanche, and Chainlink planned by year-end. Evan expects the service to bring traditional-finance customers into crypto, particularly in December and Q1, but sees less impact over the next few weeks. Circle’s expansion into 40 new markets could support its global reach, though Evan considers the stock setup premature and says it could fall sharply. He does not expect a new all-time high this year; after taking profits but keeping a small position, he sees a gradual move to a high by mid-to-late next year as possible.