Citi Reveals Top Crypto Stock Picks Ahead of Q3 Earnings

Ahead of Q3 earnings, Citi upgraded Galaxy and Gemini and downgraded Securitize, according to Jen Sonasi. Its positioning reflects a preference for crypto-equity exposure tied to infrastructure rather than companies whose fortunes depend mainly on crypto prices. Crypto’s total market value had risen to nearly $3 trillion last quarter as money flowed back into ETFs, but Bitcoin ETFs then saw nearly $1 billion in outflows over two weeks. Sonasi linked the reversal to hotter inflation reviving fears of rate hikes, underscoring how quickly macro conditions can alter demand.

Pete Christensen said Citi sees opportunity in Bitcoin miners’ shift toward serving hyperscale and high-performance computing customers. The bank is also bullish on Bullish, which Christensen identified as its number-two pick, as a way to invest in tokenization. Citi remains interested in Securitize’s position in the tokenization market, but cut the stock to neutral because its future unit economics and eventual share of tokenization revenue are unclear. Near-term share supply is another concern: unlocks at $12.50, $15.17 and $50 could weigh on the stock.

Citi is monitoring tokenized-market launches and activity at the NYSE, Nasdaq and DTCC. Christensen said the SEC innovation exemption is initially limited to 75 tickers per trading venue and includes market-cap caps, so the initial scope is constrained. He nevertheless sees practical potential in tokenization: assets could move more easily between uses as collateral, collateral could be used more efficiently, and the resulting improvements could support more trading. In his view, the opportunity depends not only on launching tokenized products but also on whether those market structures deliver those benefits.

On Strategy, Christensen said Citi expected MSCI’s proposed non-operating classification to affect the company’s index eligibility, and that the move was not a surprise. Citi’s view is that investors seeking amplified Bitcoin exposure are generally not focused on index membership. Its macro team forecasts Bitcoin at $113,000 over the next 12 months; Citi’s 1.2–1.25 MNav multiple for Strategy assumes Bitcoin yield of roughly 6–7%. Christensen expects Strategy to have negative Bitcoin yield in 2026 after building a cash reserve and selling Bitcoin at unfavorable prices. The unresolved question is how the company can resume generating yield in 2027.

Citi sees macro conditions as especially important for crypto equities exposed to Bitcoin or Ether prices, including Coinbase, and favors businesses less directly tied to token prices. Christensen highlighted Circle, whose $243 price target is above consensus. He pointed to its liquidity, compliant platform, head start and ARC offering as potential advantages in settlement, while cautioning that Circle may not become the leading provider or even the second-largest. He expects stablecoins to draw more attention as the Genius Act is implemented and sees potential for them to become a default settlement asset in cross-border payments, tokenized real-world assets and agentic payments.

Bart Smith described the UAE’s placement of its national ID on Avalanche as a major ecosystem win. He said Avalanche’s customizable L1s can let institutions embed KYC and AML controls, manage permissions and address privacy needs while connecting to a high-throughput, EVM-compatible chain. He also described Avalanche Treasury Co’s permanent-capital structure as able to buy back shares below intrinsic value or sell shares at high multiples, with investments spanning companies, tokens and protocols building on Avalanche. Smith compared tokenization’s path with ETFs: traditional finance can contribute compliance expertise while crypto-native firms supply digital-asset rails. He cited partnerships including the NYSE with OKX and Nasdaq with Kraken, and expects these ties to accelerate tokenization and support enthusiasm for real-world assets moving on-chain in 2027. Recent Bitcoin and Ether ETF outflows matter, he said, but are not a majority of trading volume; he characterized Bitcoin mainly as a macro asset and Ethereum as a blend of macro exposure and expectations for tokenization growth.