Inside Venezuela's uncertain path to freedom | Leopoldo López

Leopoldo López says Venezuela has begun a transition, but its destination is uncertain: the country is better off than it was on January 2, yet it has not reached the outcome he wants. He describes a shift from predominant influence by China, Russia, Iran, Cuba, and criminal networks to predominant U.S. influence. He prefers the U.S. role to what came before, but says Venezuela is not fully sovereign under the new arrangement. He frames the process as a three-stage plan laid out by Secretary Rubio: stabilization, economic recovery, and political transition.

Oil is opening to investment, but López says most activity remains at the commitment-signing stage and its benefits have not yet reached most Venezuelans. He expects people to feel economic change in the coming months, while warning that recovery benefiting only oil companies, a few state actors, or the United States could weaken public support for the transition. The military remains a central unresolved issue: López says it is exposed to Cuban and Russian influence and deeply involved in the kleptocratic economy. A democratic opening could fail if the military is excluded, he warns, citing Nicaragua’s return to Daniel Ortega.

Negotiations between the 2015 National Assembly, controlled by the Democratic opposition, and the regime concern renewing the Supreme Court and electoral board. López hopes both institutions will be renewed by year-end, allowing election milestones to become clear at the start of 2027. The transition must ultimately lead to free and fair legislative and presidential elections, with results respected. Its window is narrow, he says, and success depends on institutional change, public legitimacy, and an economic recovery people actually experience. Dismantling the repressive state also requires addressing institutions, laws, and impunity.

López links the urgency to the country’s human costs. He says almost 10 million people—about one-third of Venezuela’s population—have left, including many young people, professionals, and people with an entrepreneurial spirit; every Venezuelan family, in his account, has a close relative abroad. He also cites 20,000 prisoners over the past 10 years, alongside economic collapse and complete censorship. His seven years as a political prisoner, including solitary confinement, taught him what freedom means through the loss of control over basic needs such as food, sunlight, and contact with others. He says Venezuelans understand freedom and democracy through lived experience, not as abstractions. He also says an earthquake caused many casualties, but the death toll remains unknown because of a lack of transparency; community solidarity and aid from the diaspora offered a counterweight to the resulting frustration.

López argues that autocrats cooperate pragmatically to retain power despite ideological differences. He points to a document signed by Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin 10 days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that named “color revolutions”—popular movements against autocratic regimes—as a common enemy. He cites Freedom House, the Economist Intelligence Unit, and V-Dem for the estimate that 42% of the world’s population lived under some form of autocratic regime 15 years ago, compared with 75% today. He expects the 2026 Freedom House or Economist Intelligence report to show further democratic deterioration, including in democratic countries. Yet global polling finds more than 80% of people would like to live under democratic conditions, he says; democracy must deliver economic opportunity and justice to retain their support.

López co-founded the World Liberty Congress in 2022 with Masih Alinejad and Garry Kasparov to connect pro-democracy leaders across countries. Its first meeting in Vilnius brought together people from 40 countries, its second-year meeting included almost 60, and it now has leaders from 65 countries. He argues that technology can help activists organize and move resources despite internet shutdowns and controlled financial systems, but can also facilitate surveillance and social control. He calls internet access a crucial human right and warns of dependence on connectivity controlled by gatekeepers, citing Starlink being closed in Uganda and Iran during the same week. His team is developing “sovereign AI” for activists, beginning with movement leaders, hosted on servers they control with users choosing the model. He says human-rights defenders need to use AI safely: AI conversations have been exposed and later used in trials, and he and network members have been targets of AI-generated deepfakes. López urges people in democracies to learn about struggles elsewhere and offer knowledge, connections, ideas, or funding, arguing that awareness and compassion are the essential first steps.