2488: $1 Million Bitcoin SHOWDOWN - Michael Saylor RESPONDS to Wall Street's Attack

MSCI is considering excluding companies whose digital-asset holdings equal at least 50% of total assets, a proposed rule that could affect Strategy. If Strategy were removed from major indexes, index-tracking funds could have to sell MSTR shares even if Strategy kept all its Bitcoin. Michael Saylor called the proposed treatment prejudicial, arguing that treating Bitcoin differently from assets such as oil, land, and machinery reflects a value judgment about what counts as capital. He said MSCI controls only a de minimis amount of capital for Strategy, criticized the precedent, and urged the index provider to reconsider.

Saylor expects Strategy to enter more indexes over time and eventually join the S&P 500, but offered no timetable and said the decision rests with a committee. He argued that excluding innovative technology companies could make the S&P 500 less relevant and lead it to underperform. The host, meanwhile, said he did not expect the MSCI proposal to destroy Strategy or MSTR, or to hurt Bitcoin. The immediate risk described was potential forced selling of shares by index funds, rather than a requirement for Strategy itself to sell Bitcoin.

Strategy reportedly holds 848,250 Bitcoin, worth nearly $68 billion at a price of $80,000 per coin. At that price, Bitcoin reaching $1 million would represent a 12.5-fold increase. Applying the 21-million-coin supply cap would imply a fully diluted valuation of $21 trillion, compared with the transcript’s stated $29 trillion market capitalization for gold. The episode cautioned that a $1 million Bitcoin price is not guaranteed and that a $21 trillion valuation would not require $21 trillion of new money to flow directly into Bitcoin.

The supply argument rests on Bitcoin’s issuance rules: the 2024 halving reduced the block subsidy to 3.125 BTC, equivalent to about 450 newly issued Bitcoin per day or 164,250 per year. The transcript says the 2028 halving would cut new issuance in half again. Its central distinction is that Wall Street can affect Bitcoin-linked shares and financial products, but cannot change Bitcoin’s supply cap or monetary rules. The host pointed to expanded access as evidence of institutional engagement: Charles Schwab now allows clients to buy Bitcoin through existing accounts, which he said gives more than 40 million Americans access, while Deutsche Bank plans to begin Bitcoin and Ether custody services within weeks.

The host also cited a $630 million raise announced by Strive, associated with Vivek Ramaswamy, through its SATS Bitcoin digital credit product, estimating that the proceeds could buy more than 7,500 Bitcoin at then-current prices. Canter Fitzgerald raised its 12-month Bitcoin price target to $112,000 from $98,000. Bitcoin had recovered above $80,000 after falling more than 50% from its $126,000 all-time high to below $60,000. The host described $80,000 as strong support and predicted that a move above $100,000 could restart price discovery, potentially taking the price to $200,000–$300,000; those levels were his forecast, not a certainty.

The host reported more than $7.5 billion in Bitcoin ETF trading through Thursday that week, despite $145 million in net selling. Citing Galaxy Research’s supply breakdown, he said exchanges held just under 18% of Bitcoin supply, or about 3.6 million BTC, while BlackRock’s iBit ETF held more than 800,000 BTC and Fidelity held about 500,000. He added that more than half of mined Bitcoin could not be attributed to a known entity, complicating comparisons of individual and institutional ownership, and that more than a quarter may be permanently off the market.

The episode also challenged traditional banks’ credibility on Bitcoin. The host cited cumulative fines since 2000 of $88 billion for Bank of America and $40 billion for JPMorgan Chase, and alleged that banks serve as platforms for money laundering. He called JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon hypocritical, citing Dimon’s past threat to fire employees for trading Bitcoin alongside JPMorgan’s current acceptance of Bitcoin as collateral.