2487: $400,000 Bitcoin THIS CYCLE - The Final Dip Before The PARABOLIC RALLY

Jay V argues Bitcoin could reach $400,000 this cycle if demand and adoption keep growing faster than its limited supply. From $80,000, that would require a fivefold rise, or 400%. At $400,000 per coin, he estimates a fully diluted valuation of about $8.4 trillion. He says Bitcoin would not need to replace equities, bonds, or real estate to reach that scale: 2% of the roughly $400 trillion real estate market would be nearly $8 trillion. He puts global equities above $100 trillion and bonds at roughly $140 trillion, while cautioning that past rallies do not guarantee another fivefold gain and that market capitalization is not the same as new money entering Bitcoin.

Jay V notes that Bitcoin rose about 20-fold in 2017 and climbed from around $4,000 to nearly $69,000 after the 2020 crash, before today’s degree of US spot ETF access, Wall Street distribution, and corporate treasury buying. He says about 20 million Bitcoin have been mined, with fewer than 1 million left to be issued through 2140. Issuance is currently 3.125 BTC per block, or roughly 450 BTC a day; at $400,000 per coin, that new supply would be worth about $180 million daily. He expects the next halving in April 2028.

Potential demand sources include institutions, sovereign wealth funds, governments, and digital credit. Jay V says BlackRock manages $15 trillion and that its iBit ETF has accumulated roughly 805,000 Bitcoin since launching in January 2024. He also says spot Bitcoin ETFs hold $106 billion, more than commodities and real estate combined. The episode presents these channels as possible sources of demand, but does not establish that their growth guarantees a particular price target.

The pullback is linked to inflation and investor sentiment. Jay V reports US PPI inflation at 6.3%, above expectations, and says the surprise could increase expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, pressuring Bitcoin, crypto, and stocks. He reports $261 million in Bitcoin ETF sales on Wednesday, followed by buyers returning as Bitcoin moved above $82,000, with $80,000 support holding. He also says Bitcoin had dropped to $60,000 from an all-time high of $120,000. Search interest remains low, which Jay V says is typical away from all-time highs; Willy Woo’s view is that buying is best when few people are interested and selling when broad interest is high. The host argues that fear can leave investors sidelined during a reversal and favors dollar-cost averaging over selling in hopes of buying back cheaper.

The host says the 2018 and 2022 Bitcoin buy zones resemble the 2026 market and projects a possible parabolic rise to a $500,000 cycle peak in 2029, which he calls conservative. He also calls $1 million by 2029 the most likely scenario and says it could happen sooner, citing the rainbow chart, stock-to-flow model, and power-law model as pointing toward that level. These are the host’s forecasts, not a single agreed target. Sayler says Bitcoin could reach $1 million when banks make it easy for customers to buy and $10 million when banks recommend it; the host says banks are currently doing neither and describes $82,000 as a buying opportunity.

The host says Sayler began buying Bitcoin for MSTR in 2020 and is now the largest corporate Bitcoin holder. Sayler says he will keep buying Bitcoin exposure regardless of price and that MSTR will continue buying for clients. The host also says Trump signed an executive order in early March 2025 for a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, describing a plan to acquire 1 million Bitcoin over five years through net-neutral strategies and hold it for 20 years; he says Russia, Thailand, and Japan are also showing interest. Jay V characterizes a roughly $6 billion US Treasury debt buyback, and nearly $20 billion in buybacks that month, as bullish for Bitcoin. The host rejects the claim that Bitcoin is mainly used by criminals, saying traditional banks handle more than 95% of global money laundering and citing a $1.2 billion Bank of America fine over money-laundering violations.