Bitcoin REFUSES To Crash - Even Peter Schiff Admits He’s Surprised

Bitcoin has held up far better than Peter Schiff expected after bond-buyback news: it rose from about $60,000 to roughly $85,000 and has not returned to $60,000. Gold moved in the opposite direction after a much larger rally, climbing to about $5,500 before falling to roughly $4,000, rebounding to around $4,600–$4,700 after the news, and then sliding back to about $4,000. Schiff said he still expects Bitcoin to make new lows, but acknowledged that he thought the decline would have happened by now and does not know what is supporting the price.

Schiff suggested Bitcoin may be benefiting from the technology-market strength that is also supporting the “Mag Seven.” He said Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases and its “stretch” share purchases may have helped sentiment, while characterizing the Bitcoin buying as largely symbolic rather than substantial. The host emphasized that Bitcoin has retained its gains while gold has retraced, despite both assets being associated with a debasement-hedge narrative. Their views differ on which asset is preferable, but the host said they agree that fiat currency is the underlying problem. Bitcoin has fallen, traded sideways, and rallied instead of breaking down; its latest sideways movement leaves open whether it is forming another top or preparing for a breakout or breakdown.

Schiff described bonds as selling off whether news is good or bad, and said their bear market began in 2020 after a 40-year bull market. He expects the bear market could last at least half as long as that bull run and warned interest rates could reach 8% or higher within a couple of years. With U.S. national debt already above $40 trillion, he argued, higher rates could make the debt burden unsustainable: at $50 trillion of debt and an 8% rate, annual interest would be $4 trillion. He also forecast deficits of $6 trillion a year and debt reaching $60 trillion in under two years.

Higher rates, Schiff warned, could push mortgage rates up, worsen housing affordability, and threaten the economy. He predicted mortgage rates could reach 8% soon and 9% by year-end, while cautioning that falling home prices could lead to mortgage defaults and a financial crisis. He also expects U.S. bonds to go “a lot lower” and sees substantial downside risk in U.S. stocks, making diversification important in his view.

The discussion also treated Bitcoin’s political exposure as a risk. One speaker argued that Trump’s promises of a Bitcoin reserve, taxpayer-funded Bitcoin purchases, and a crypto-friendly administration politicized the asset and helped drive it to $126,000. That speaker warned that Democrats may oppose Bitcoin partly because they view it as a source of Republican votes and funding, and that a hostile Congress after the midterms could make Washington more of an enemy than an ally. As a possible scenario, the speaker cited Maxine Waters leading a House finance committee and Elizabeth Warren leading Senate banking, describing both as strongly anti-Bitcoin. The speakers disagreed on crypto lobbying: one framed it partly as an effort to ensure the industry’s survival under a prior administration, while another emphasized the pursuit of political influence and financial gain.

One speaker argued that government should remain neutral rather than endorse Bitcoin, buy it for a strategic reserve, or have the president urge people to buy and hold it. The speaker also said Trump-family crypto ventures could earn fees even if their tokens fell, and argued that buying Trump-linked tokens could provide an easy route to legally bribing the president. Schiff, meanwhile, called Bitcoin a gamble he does not consider worthwhile and said heavily invested holders are overexposed; he suggested they could sell some Bitcoin for gold and silver as a hedge against being wrong. He said the breakout in both metals is confirmed and expects gold around $4,000 and silver around $60 to become support, while allowing either could briefly fall below those levels.

Schiff also advised families to buy needed nonperishable goods in advance to limit exposure to future price increases, saying that if those goods cost 10%–20% more next year, buying now would save that amount. For portfolios, he recommended diversification toward overseas markets, value, and natural resources, and warned that stagflation could leave investors waiting “in the desert” before an AI-led “promised land.” His message was to ensure portfolios can withstand that period.