Crypto’s Next 30X Market Is About to Explode! | Nick Forster

Crypto options are still a small part of the market, according to Nick Forster: while futures and options volumes are similar in traditional finance, options account for about 3% of crypto-market activity. He sees that gap as a potential 30–40x opportunity for crypto options before accounting for further growth in the overall crypto market. The comparison describes a possible market opening, not a guarantee that options volumes will reach that scale or do so quickly.

Derive, the on-chain options venue Forster leads, has about 92–93% of on-chain crypto options volume, by his estimate. Its volume has risen from roughly 1.1% of Deribit’s a year earlier to 4–5% over the most recent 30 days. Forster says Derive processed about $4.5 billion in the previous month, or around $150–200 million per day, and its current version has handled more than $40 billion in total.

Forster says Derive could match Deribit’s volume within a year, and estimates that monthly volume could reach $20–30 billion within 12 months if conditions support the plan. He stressed that this was not a formal financial forecast. A more realistic stated goal, in his view, is reaching 20–30% of Deribit’s volume. Those ambitions depend on execution and market conditions, rather than simply on the broad potential he sees for crypto options.

Derive’s V3 is intended to function as a derivatives API with a shared liquidity book, rather than mainly as a retail trading front end. Forster says developers could use it to build products such as structured-product vaults, covered calls, and put-selling strategies in five to ten minutes. Derive would provide exchange infrastructure and liquidity, and earn trading fees. The company plans to prioritize integrations and distribution, seeking five to ten large partners, potentially including Phantom or MetaMask, international brokerages, neobanks, and fintechs. Forster argues that partners could bring traders and structured-product sellers into new markets from launch, helping attract market makers.

At the time of the interview, Derive planned to upgrade to V3 that night. Forster says the system is designed to settle directly on Ethereum using a zero-knowledge virtual machine, with near-instant confirmations and settlement, while consolidating ten architectural layers into one. Derive lists options on Bitcoin, ETH, HYPE, Zcash, Solana, LIT, and XRP. Forster says options markets develop later than spot and futures because they require liquidity across numerous strikes and expiries, and market makers need confidence that a venue will persist. Derive has about 15 market makers, including eight to ten especially active in options.

Forster presents options as a way to express a more specific market view and obtain leverage without liquidation, while limiting the buyer’s loss to the premium paid. In his example, a $10,000 Bitcoin $90,000 call expiring in 60 days could provide roughly 20x synthetic leverage if Bitcoin reached $100,000, or 30x at $110,000. If Bitcoin remained at $80,000, the option would be worth nothing. The example illustrates both the potential leverage and the risk of losing the full premium.

Derive began building around 2021, when the team had about 10–11 people; Forster says it now has 21, including eight early members. He says the company kept spending tight, came close to running out of cash around the middle of the previous year, and later secured funding after a legal victory whose details he could not discuss. The project launched as Lyra in 2021, and Forster says it has never raised funding through an equity entity, with value instead accruing to the token. Supply rose from 1 billion to 1.5 billion, which he described as 33% dilution; about 67% is in circulation, while roughly 240 million of the added tokens are allocated to the team over four years. Protocol fees are split equally between an on-chain insurance fund and token buybacks. Buyback tokens remain in a publicly visible wallet rather than being burned, because Forster prefers keeping them available for growth and potential strategic deals.