Bitcoin DUMPS To $83K As Bond Yields Break 24 - Year Highs

Bitcoin fell to $83,000 as 30-year Treasury yields reached fresh 24-year highs and oil moved back above $100 amid Iranian tanker attacks. Scott said Bitcoin’s hold in the mid-to-lower $80,000s looked resilient against rising yields, oil and the dollar, forces that he thought might otherwise have pushed it into the $40,000s or $50,000s. Noel Atchison likewise said higher yields, rate-hike expectations, oil and a stronger dollar should theoretically weigh on liquidity, to which Bitcoin is sensitive, yet Bitcoin was holding up well and outperforming stocks and gold.

Scott pointed to Bitcoin’s recent 24% weekly candle, move above every moving average and new higher high as possible signs of a regime change, while cautioning that short-term signals have limits. Speakers said Bitcoin’s weakness after October 10 reflected geopolitical disruption, liquidations and earlier gains, alongside increased interest in AI. As Bitcoin becomes more established in macro portfolios, it also competes with other investment narratives. Scott considered Robinhood’s $25 million Bitcoin purchase too small to trigger broader corporate balance-sheet adoption.

Atchison said the speed of yield changes matters more than the absolute 10-year yield, and highlighted the MOVE Index as a measure to watch: rising Treasury volatility can signal drying liquidity, although the index was below prior levels despite spiking. She personally expects the 10-year yield to reach 6%. A Treasury-market liquidity shortfall or weak bond-auction demand could prompt Fed or Treasury intervention; speakers cited the 2019 repo-market spike as a precedent. Suggestions to issue more short-term and fewer long-term bonds were described as liquidity manipulation, and yields continued rising after a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike.

Scott said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announcement of longer-term debt buybacks preceded Bitcoin’s August rise. The buybacks increased from $3 billion to $6 billion against roughly $40 trillion in debt: Scott called them tiny in scale but meaningful as a signal. He said they were not yield-curve control because Treasury set no yield target, and would not really be quantitative easing if funded from the Treasury General Account. Atchison said future intervention could resemble QE without formally being QE. Speakers said markets may already be looking past tightening toward a future fix, though its effects may take time to show in liquidity data.

Views differed on bonds and the outlook for intervention. One speaker expects inflation, yields and interest rates to keep rising until something breaks, prompting intervention and substantial money printing. Noella said TLT, the 20-plus-year Treasury ETF first offered in 2002, hit an all-time low last month, which she saw as possible acceleration rather than a typical bottom. Scott disagreed that the chart showed rates had peaked or bonds had bottomed, and said he would not want to hold long bonds or debt. Speakers also discussed Bitcoin as a corporate treasury asset, citing portability, improving custody and appeal to digital-economy companies, while noting that direct crypto custody could bring RIAs substantial responsibilities.

The discussion also covered competition among stablecoins, tokenized deposits and tokenized money-market funds. Caitlin Long believes tokenized deposits could become bigger than stablecoins, though speakers said “bigger” depends on the measure: stablecoins are designed mainly to move money, while money-market funds are suited to earning yield, and wallets could shift idle balances between them. Banks may favor tokenized deposits because they retain customer relationships, KYC control and deposit revenue. Stablecoin competition involves big banks, USDC and USDT issuers, Stripe-led fintechs launching Open USD, and regional and community banks challenging crypto bank charters at the OCC. The Genius framework has passed, but key details remain unresolved, implementation details are expected by January, and a stablecoin review could take years to become law. Noella said she is tracking stablecoin demand as access to finance is weaponized, including between countries; she said the US is the largest stablecoin market and the dollar underpins 98% of stablecoins.