Uptober Begins? Tom Lee Calls For $50k ETH Potential

The September ISM manufacturing index came in at 54.5, below the 55 forecast but still above 50, indicating factory activity was growing. Prices paid climbed to 77.9, leaving uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve will ease or treat price pressures as a reason for concern; PCE data had not yet been released. Against that backdrop, the U.S. stock market lost $550 billion in the final 45 minutes of trading as 10-year and 20-year bonds surged.

Tom Lee argued that AI demand for memory and energy is creating inflationary bottlenecks, but said higher Fed rates would not slow AI spending. He views ChatGPT’s 2023 launch as the start of an AI cycle that could run until roughly 2033, when much of the upside may be priced in. Lee compared the opportunity with Cisco’s rise, pointing out that substantial declines during Cisco’s run did not prevent further gains; the comparison supports a long-term case, not a smooth path upward.

The “Uptober” case rests partly on historical seasonality: in U.S. midterm-election years since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged a 2.1% gain in the first half of October. Crypto has also mostly risen in October since 2013, with last October an exception. Since June, Ethereum had gained 67%, Solana 61.9%, and Bitcoin 39%, giving Ethereum the strongest performance of the three over that period.

Lee’s most aggressive forecast was for Ethereum. He said ETH has been consolidating for five years and pointed to two earlier consolidations that preceded breakouts of 62 times and 17 times. If ETH breaks above $5,000, he believes it could rise tenfold from that level, implying roughly $50,000. That is a conditional projection rather than a near-term target. Separately, Citi raised its 12-month Bitcoin target to $113,000, while the host put Citi’s Ethereum target at around $3,000.

Lee expects digital-asset treasuries to increase crypto purchases over the next 12–18 months. He argued that tokens held by these treasuries may perform best as ongoing buying removes supply. Ethereum-focused treasuries hold 7% of ETH supply, more than Bitcoin or Solana treasuries, and Lee said that share could reach 15% during this bull cycle. Bitmine (BMNR) was described as trading at nearly six times the daily volume of all nine U.S. spot ETFs combined.

Other developments included a proposed 56-page U.S. crypto tax bill that would exempt small purchases from tax and remove the wash-sale rule; the host emphasized that it is only a proposal and may not pass. Hester Peirce said she is not a fan of accredited-investor restrictions but supports a proposal to narrow the gap. Stand With Crypto is beginning its first Senate endorsements after the Clarity effort failed. Solana recorded more than 14 billion transactions in Q3, a quarterly record, and Bloomberg launched a terminal dashboard tracking stablecoin supply, mints, burns, and velocity for stablecoins with more than $100 million in circulating supply.