ROLLUP: The Bull Market is On? | Zcash & NEAR | Kalshi Wash Trading | BlackRock Goes Onchain

Bitcoin’s rally from about $63,000 to $78,000, followed by a move from roughly $77,000 to $85,000, put it at an eight-month high and its highest price since January. Hosts cited a Golden Cross, a monthly close above the 50-week moving average near $78,800, and a cycle low only 5%–8% below the 200-week average at $65,500 as signs that an early bull market may be underway. Michael Nato put the odds at 85%, and Ben Cohen said the next downturn he had expected may already have happened. The hosts cautioned that several monthly closes below about $65,000 would weaken the thesis, and that growing agreement on a bull market could itself warrant skepticism.

The recovery came despite a bearish macro outlook from Ben Cowen. One speaker argued that seller exhaustion and holders rotating their assets mattered more than macro risks, citing Bitcoin’s weak 0.18 inverse correlation with 10-year Treasury yields. Ryan put the 10-year and 30-year yields at 5.15% and 5.44%, their highest levels in more than 20 years but not all-time highs. He connected pressure on yields to persistent inflation, fiscal weakness, and competition for capital from AI investment and Treasury borrowing. PCE inflation was about 3.7% against the Fed’s 2% target; US debt was cited at $40 trillion, with $1 trillion in annual interest payments. Ryan questioned whether AI cash flows could support an estimated $5 trillion buildout alongside $2 trillion in Treasury issuance.

The market was also rotating toward assets with revenue: ETH rose about 9% in a week, Athena 40%, and Uniswap, Ando, Jupiter, and Arbitrum about 30% each. Arbitrum receives 10% of Robinhood Chain fees, but Bitcoin Cash’s 50% rise and XRP’s 17% rise complicate the idea that revenue explains the move. A June Delphi Digital comparison showed revenue-generating assets up about 17% while ETH, Bitcoin, and Solana were down about 30%. With Bitcoin dominance near 59%, speakers said smaller assets could draw attention before flows reach Bitcoin and Ether, while warning that percentage gains are not comparable across markets of different sizes.

Zcash’s move near a 10-year high was described as competition for store-of-value flows from Bitcoin and Ether, possibly as Bitcoin holders shifted a small part of their holdings into a smaller asset. Speakers dismissed Zcash’s brief launch-era price near $10,000 as a meaningful all-time high and preferred market capitalization as a measure, but the synopsis cites inconsistent capitalization estimates. Privacy, newer technology, and lower tech debt were offered as possible attractions. NEAR’s private intents, a privacy-focused cross-chain transfer feature, saw volume rise about 85% over two weeks as NEAR gained 54% in seven days. One speaker said intents generate cash flow and estimated that confidential-intents revenue is used to buy and burn an average of about 60% of NEAR issuance. They saw potential product-market fit in privacy and AI, but were uncertain about smart contracts and did not view NEAR as a store-of-value competitor. The gains could also reflect the broader revenue-focused market narrative.

Kalshi faced allegations of wash trading after a reported burst of one million near-identical $5,500 trades. Benny cited roughly $500 million in daily ETH perpetual volume against $3.1 million in open interest, modest reported gains and losses among top traders, and Kalshi API data showing trades of about $5,500 made up more than half of trading. The Wall Street Journal reported nearly one million similar trades and more than $5 billion in volume at that size during the same month. Speakers said fixed-size orders could instead reflect a market maker serving many distinct takers. Benny argued that volume rebates could make wash trading worthwhile despite fees; Kalshi’s defender said fees made it unlikely. Bloomberg reported that Jump Trading received an ownership stake and permission to make markets on Kalshi, which speakers said could create an incentive to increase volume. Kalshi said the CFTC was not investigating it for wash trading. Benny also argued that Kalshi can overstate dollar volume by counting contracts at face value: 100,000 contracts priced at $0.30 would be reported as $100,000 rather than $30,000. The explanation did not resolve the hosts’ concerns.

Ando and BlackRock are collaborating on tokenized “intelligent portfolios” that combine Ando-tokenized assets held in vaults with strategies associated with BlackRock. The described options are high-income, diversified-growth, and high-growth portfolios; the high-income option includes bonds. A speaker was unsure whether BlackRock manages the strategies or contributes proprietary expertise. BlackRock framed AI as “machine-native intelligence” and digital assets as “machine-native money,” arguing that AI may need programmable money. The institutional reach of the initiative drew attention because BlackRock has roughly $10 trillion in assets under management.