Bitcoin’s Next Supercycle: Why a Supply Shock Could Send Prices Soaring | Markets Outlook

Michael Turpin’s four-season model places Bitcoin in the early stages of “Bitcoin winter,” after a phase he calls “Bitcoin fall.” He says successive halving cycles have followed a similar sequence, even as the narratives around them change. His central market premise is that Bitcoin rises when new money entering the ecosystem exceeds the value of newly mined supply. On that basis, he considers a Bitcoin supercycle in 2028–29 more likely than in any prior period, while emphasizing that its timing depends on when a supply shock emerges.

Turpin defines a commodity supercycle, citing the CME, as at least five years of growth driven by a fundamental change in an asset class. He points to gold in the 1970s and broad commodities in the 1990s as past examples. In his view, Bitcoin could qualify if constrained new supply meets much wider demand. More than 95% of Bitcoin has already been mined, and he estimates that mining the remaining 5% will take over 100 years. He also estimates that just 4%–5% of people worldwide own even a dollar’s worth of Bitcoin, leaving substantial room for adoption. He contrasts Bitcoin’s limited issuance with gold, whose supply he says grows by about 1.5% a year.

Turpin cites 2013 as an early Bitcoin supply shock associated with institutional participation. He recalls that Barry Silbert’s Bitcoin trust drew about $100 million from accredited investors, while Bitcoin rose from roughly $100 to nearly $1,000 in October. During that surge, he says, five daily candles exceeded 30%, and Coinbase was frequently unavailable amid rumors it could not find coins to sell. He uses the episode to illustrate how a relatively small pool of available Bitcoin could become a constraint when demand rises quickly; it is an example from a prior cycle, not proof that the next supply shock will follow the same path.

He says ETFs, digital-asset treasuries and corporate holders together own less than 20% of Bitcoin, while original holders and whales hold about five times as much. That ownership balance matters to his supply-shock thesis: institutional products may broaden access, but much of the supply remains with long-term holders and large owners. Turpin further argues that ETF purchases largely represent retail investors acting on institutional advice, rather than institutions trading for themselves. His interpretation therefore distinguishes the channel through which demand arrives from the ultimate source of that demand.

Turpin’s forecasts combine a declining-cycle-return pattern with the possibility that a supercycle breaks it. He says Bitcoin’s historical returns have fallen from 100 times to 30 times, then 10 times and 3 times; if that pattern continues, the next step would be 1.3 times. Without a supercycle, he sees the next peak as only about 30% above the halving price. Against that more restrained case, he expects Bitcoin to exceed $120,000 by the fourth quarter of next year, regain $126,000 well before the next halving, and reach $1 million within the next three cycles, most likely in 2037.

He links the potential supercycle to monetary debasement and changing supply and demand in gold and silver, but does not present a straight-line rise as certain. Turpin expects a major global bubble-popping event around 2029, as the Bitcoin bubble retreats, and describes the event as predictable rather than a black swan. He also says current market greed could persist for the next couple of years before fear returns. The central uncertainty in his outlook is whether a genuine supply shock arrives strongly and soon enough to offset the pattern of diminishing cycle returns.