Bits + Bips: Is Bitcoin Finally Being Priced on Fundamentals?

Bitcoin closed a weekly candle above its 50-week moving average at 81,160 for the first time in roughly 45 weeks, giving several speakers a stronger technical basis for questioning the bear-market case. Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorne noted that in four of the five completed bear markets, the bottom followed the first reclaim of that average. Benjamin Cowan said a higher high, together with continued weekly closes above the 50-week SMA, would materially weaken the bearish view. Fidelity’s Jurian Timmer said he sensed a new four-year bull cycle was underway, though the technical confirmation remains conditional on prices holding up.

The rally had clear signs of a short squeeze, but participants disagreed on whether short covering explained it. IT Tech said the Coinbase Premium was negative for 166 of 168 hours, which he viewed as evidence of short covering and a lack of substantial U.S. buying. A questioner cited 166 of 168 days instead, while expressing uncertainty about that count. Ram also called the move a squeeze, but argued that covering can draw in momentum buyers and, if prices keep rising, FOMO buyers. He said a surprise improvement in expectations for the Clarity Act may have helped set off the rally.

Other evidence suggested the move was not only a squeeze. Glassnode put corporate treasury cost basis at about 80,000 and ETF cost basis at about 85,000, and characterized the buying as spot. A circulating desk note said a pure squeeze would typically give back 50–70% in the next session; this rally did not. Austin also pointed to the lack of a reversal over the following session or two and to positive ETF flows as signs of demand beyond short covering. Rom cautioned that ETF flows of about $6 million were too small to demonstrate substantial participation from registered investment advisers, and instead attributed buying to crypto-native participants and quantitative and macro traders.

Chris described a possible regime change: Bitcoin and other crypto assets are increasingly being valued on fundamentals rather than treated mainly as frontier risk assets. In his view, regulatory clarity, securities roadmaps, and exemptions have removed an artificial barrier to fundamental investment, allowing institutions to begin underwriting assets on that basis as retail interest starts to return. The speakers said clarity has improved around whether assets are securities or commodities and around routes for capital formation and trading, even without legislation. They also emphasized that regulators are proceeding cautiously to keep rules grounded in law and durable in a post-Chevron-deference environment.

The Clarity Act remains a potential catalyst, but its path makes the market vulnerable to rapid repricing. Ram said Bitcoin’s next direction depends on Congress’s handling of the bill, and Rom described the market as event-driven, capable of repricing in a day according to the legislative outcome. Austin noted that Bitcoin fell to 75,000 after the bill failed but did not continue lower, weakening the argument that failure alone would cause a much larger decline. Chris said market building would continue even if the bill were dead, while warning that shorting Bitcoin carries potentially unlimited risk. A change in administration or Congress could still alter the regulatory direction.

The rally also extended beyond Bitcoin: Austin cited Avalanche’s nearly 50% rise over seven days amid project announcements as evidence of broader strength. That breadth, along with the possibility that continued price gains could draw back retail buyers, supports the bullish case, but neither broad participation nor a durable regulatory settlement was established. The speakers’ central distinction was between an immediate squeeze and a market beginning to respond to improving fundamentals; the price action offered evidence for both, with follow-through and policy outcomes still decisive.