Are Markets About to Take Off Again? | Macro Mondays: September 21, 2026
Monday, 21 September 2026 · 2 min read · Listen to the episode ↗
In this episode of Macro Mondays, Miguel Rosendahl and Andres explore the potential for a market resurgence, examining the synergy between AI and cryptocurrency. They discuss the implications of the upcoming US-China summit on market dynamics and highlight a recent crypto rally linked to a short dollar proxy trade. Despite bearish retail sentiment and historical trends suggesting a tough September, the speakers anticipate a significant fourth-quarter rally, while also addressing the geopolitical factors influencing energy prices and semiconductor growth.
Miguel Rosendahl and Andres discuss the interplay between the AI trade and cryptocurrency, with Rosendahl suggesting they will work together over time. Andres counters this by asserting that investors do not need to shift focus from AI to crypto, emphasizing the importance of the upcoming US-China summit in shaping market dynamics.
Andres links the recent crypto rally to a short dollar proxy trade, highlighting that Scott Besen's buyback operations have revitalized interest in crypto. He warns that this rally is not fueled by government bailouts and points out the increasing use of blockchains for transactions in an agent economy.
The current market positioning shows a net 44 percent long in oil, but Andres notes signs of exhaustion. Despite bearish sentiment among retail investors, as indicated by the AII survey, the market has not reacted strongly to news that would typically influence it.
Historically, September has a poor seasonality track record, yet there is an expectation for a significant rally in the fourth quarter. The potential impact of central bank rate hikes on the business cycle is acknowledged, alongside the anticipation of a constructive tone from the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, particularly regarding tariffs on semiconductors.
The spike in oil prices is partly attributed to the ongoing conflict in Iran, with both the US and China facing high energy costs that require coordinated responses. The semiconductor trade has experienced substantial growth, with an almost 80 percent increase in the first 20 days of the month.
Despite rate hikes and geopolitical tensions, the economic cycle remains resilient. The speakers believe the market is rebounding due to positioning that does not align with current fundamentals, and they express concern that 2027 may bring additional challenges.
The podcast also addresses the implications of the upcoming Trump meeting, including discussions about the Greenland deal, which is seen as beneficial for Denmark, the US, and Greenland. The US military presence in Greenland is viewed as advantageous for NATO, and the geopolitical deal may be strategically aimed at securing a victory ahead of the midterm elections.
This summary was generated from the episode transcript and can contain mistakes.