Is the Risk-On Trade Breaking Down? | Macro Mondays: September 14, 2026

Michael Oussman highlights a significant downturn across all markets, indicating a shift in investor sentiment. Andreas Denau observes that the market's muted response to Dario's comments reflects a lack of urgency among investors, suggesting they are not overly concerned at this moment.

Denau raises alarms about potential threats from "roaks" and "worms" that could disrupt the internet within the next six to twelve months. However, he is not focused on this timeline, citing Dario's previous guidance advocating for a cautious approach to AI development for safety reasons, which may also indicate a broader strategy for managing political risks.

Denau speculates that if Anthropocan were to triple its revenue, it could achieve a valuation of $200 billion in the coming years. He notes the current absence of appetite for AI regulations from the US government, which could lead to intervention if funding challenges arise for AI and anthropologists.

The market seems to be pricing in a slowdown in AI development, which could adversely affect hardware trades, particularly for companies like NVIDIA and its memory suppliers. There is speculation that firms pushing for a slower pace in AI development may be seeking competitive advantages as they approach initial public offerings.

Denau predicts an interest rate hike following a core inflation print exceeding 0.2, which could complicate market dynamics further. The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia is significantly impacting global diesel exports, while damage to the Yanbu pipeline is contributing to rising oil prices, with forecasts suggesting prices could hit $110 if further disruptions occur.

Currently, the market is positioned long on dollars and short on bonds, with a focus on energy longs, despite a lack of euphoric sentiment. There is a prevailing expectation that the Federal Reserve will adopt a less aggressive stance compared to other central banks, and a weaker dollar may be necessary to alleviate market concerns. Overall, the market is responding calmly to current events, contrary to expectations of a major downturn, as investors appear to be waiting for more economic pain before making positive moves.