MacroVoices #548 Dr. Carly Anderson: Emerging Energy Technologies Roundup

Dr. Carly Anderson emphasizes the crucial role of hyperscalers and data center builders in driving a nuclear renaissance, highlighting their potential to open new markets for nuclear energy. She notes advancements in regulatory frameworks and supply chain developments for nuclear fission, predicting that smaller reactor companies will achieve significant milestones within the next year. Restarting older nuclear plants is identified as a rapid method to increase nuclear power on the grid, while mass production of reactor components could reduce lead times, despite conventional plants typically requiring a decade for construction and permitting.

Anderson points out that advanced nuclear technologies are finding niche markets, particularly in military applications, remote locations, and data centers for AI, although these technologies will initially be more expensive than traditional light water reactors. She acknowledges the defense sector's role in enabling many emerging technologies from American labs. Currently, about 80 reactors are under construction globally, with around 60 of these being of Chinese design. China is expected to install 5 to 10 gigawatts of nuclear power annually over the next five years, with timelines for bringing AP 1000 reactors online estimated at 7 to 10 years.

The nuclear fuel supply chain is in need of significant updates, particularly as the uranium conversion supply is heavily reliant on Russia, with a transition deadline set for 2028. Anderson highlights the potential of lasers for uranium enrichment, marking a shift from gaseous diffusion to gas centrifuges, with lasers being the next upgrade. In fusion energy, she predicts operational fusion power plants could emerge by the mid-2030s, driven by advancements in high-temperature superconducting magnets, although concerns about the high market price of Tritium remain.

Anderson discusses the energy sector's growth in companies focused on improving heat-to-electricity conversion technologies, noting that supercritical CO2 turbines can achieve efficiencies of up to 50%. She mentions the decreasing costs of Silicon Carbide, which has excellent thermal tolerance and various applications, including in solid-state transformers that enhance grid connectivity. The demand for data centers is projected to double by 2030, with technologies being developed to align their energy needs with the US Electric Grid, potentially creating virtual power plants to manage peak loads.

She expresses skepticism about the feasibility of mass-producing geothermal wells in a factory setting, contrasting this with nuclear energy's clearer path to factory mass production. Anderson highlights the technical challenges of geothermal energy, particularly the difficulties of drilling through high-temperature granite, and notes that achieving cost targets for geothermal energy requires increasing power density. However, she acknowledges that new drilling technologies and materials could present significant opportunities in this sector.

In industrial robotics, Anderson notes a focus on applications in dangerous or remote environments, predicting that home-use robots are still at least five years away. She discusses Timescale Ventures, which specializes in early-stage investments in deep tech and critical technologies, including energy and industrial robotics. Anderson highlights the maturation of the talent pool for startups, with individuals from companies like SpaceX and Tesla entering the field, and indicates that Timescale Ventures reflects the urgency of rapid technology market entry to make a significant impact. More updates from Timescale are anticipated in the coming months, underscoring the unprecedented level of engineers involved in hardware building companies today.