Story vs Valuation, Hyperliquid TAM, Pump’s Problem & Ethena’s Token Reset

Santi remains bearish on crypto, arguing that investors are not being compensated enough for the risk relative to other opportunities; vesting and locked positions, however, mean he cannot sell immediately. Another speaker said US debt service consumes 20% of the budget and argued technology can offer growth that is more resistant to inflation. In that speaker’s view, Bitcoin is a high-beta asset, not a dependable hedge: a price of $1 million could reflect conditions so dire that it would not simply represent a portfolio win.

The discussion centered on a shift from valuing crypto businesses on current revenue and cash flow toward stories about future growth. Investors were described as buying winners and assets at highs, while conventional value investing risks underperforming. Santi argued that crypto is no longer uncorrelated with other markets, though another speaker noted it rose during the prior week as equities and AI stocks fell. The debate was less about whether narratives matter than how much future growth today’s valuations already assume.

Hyperliquid was reported to have generated roughly $150–160 million in quarterly revenue in Q1 and Q2, after a peak near $300 million in Q3 2025. One speaker said that amounts to about a $600 million annual run rate for a company with fewer than 20 employees, but others cautioned against annualizing unusually high fees and said performance should be judged over a full cycle. Its rally from the $60s to about $82 was attributed to expectations of future US access, following a report about a CFTC advisory committee chair seeking a compliant route, rather than to stronger current fundamentals.

Valuation estimates varied: one speaker cited roughly $40 billion in fully diluted value and an $18 billion market capitalization, while another put fully diluted value near $80 billion. Both views raised the question of whether current fees support the valuation; Coinbase was cited at roughly $65 billion. The prospective US market is a major part of the bull case: access could extend Hyperliquid beyond overseas and 24/7 traders into institutional markets for stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities on public blockchains. But large US institutions are not yet trading there, and uncertainty around Trade XYZ and HIP-3 has left activity concentrated among retail users, prosumers, and smaller market participants. HIP-3 real-world-asset markets have supplied as much as 60–65% of volume, but Growth Mode charges 10% of the fees charged on crypto markets, and competing with venues such as CME may require lower fees.

Pump was described as producing roughly $90–100 million in quarterly revenue, against Hyperliquid’s $150–160 million, despite a market capitalization of about $1 billion—roughly one-eighth of Hyperliquid’s. Speakers said Pump has recovered and gained traction in new products, but buybacks have slowed and the founders have not clearly explained what the product is becoming. One Pump investor said a renewed meme-coin cycle and buybacks do not amount to an ambitious vision. A founder’s claim that Pump generated five times Polymarket’s revenue the previous day was disputed as false and based on an inaccurate dashboard. Speakers saw Pump as a social-trading product closer to eToro, Robinhood, or social media, rather than a direct exchange competitor to Hyperliquid. They argued that Pump’s durable meme-coin market is held back by its framing, while larger market narratives can attract investment; Pump may need to reach beyond crypto-native users. FOMO was cited as an example of a polished social-trading app using data-driven customer acquisition through TikTok and Instagram.

Ethena announced a buyout of locked tokens from certain major seed investors who had sold ENA during the prior nine months; Rob said essentially everyone offered a buyout accepted. The reset eliminates future monthly VC unlock overhang by releasing unvested investor tokens, while team tokens remain locked on their existing schedules; remaining investor and advisor tokens are now fully unlocked. The Ethena Foundation and Ethena Labs also agreed to assign protocol IP and accrued value exclusively to the token-holder-governed foundation, leaving Labs equity investors with no residual cash flow. The foundation proposed using net revenue across Ethena-branded businesses to buy back ENA. ENA rose 25% after the announcement, and a speaker called the changes what the project should do. Ethena also joined the Blockworks token transparency framework, disclosing its entity structure, supply and vesting schedules, insider allocations, foundation agreements, and protocol value retention.

Ethena’s token case also depends on turning on its fee switch and directing protocol value to ENA, as well as expanding the business. Its historical yield relied largely on crypto funding rates, which can be strong in bull markets and weaker in bear markets; revenue fell from about $162 million in Q3 2025 to roughly $56 million by the discussion. Ethena is broadening into equity-market basis trades and secured lending, including a reported $1 billion deal with FalconX, and is working with Janus Henderson and BlackRock on higher-yielding collateral, including a Janus Henderson collateralized loan obligation product. Speakers said the opportunity depends on improving on-chain finance and winning distribution for ENA-linked yield-bearing assets, not on a specific forecast for on-chain yields. Ethena is powering vault products on Robinhood and Coinbase and discussing other fintech integrations. Rob disclosed Dragonfly’s substantial investment in Ethena, including its role leading the seed round, and said he was bullish on the team’s ability to execute.