Crypto Market Disbelief Technical Analysis with Evan Aldo

Evan Aldo describes Bitcoin as having moved to nearly 80,000 with a trend reversal occurring around the end of August, and he expects continuation to roughly 82,000 by early September before a correction. He considers anything below 80,000 a strong long-term entry and calls attempts to sell here in hopes of better prices foolish. In extreme conditions he sees Bitcoin reaching the high 80,000s before September, though September and October historically produce a 10 to 20 percent correction ahead of midterm elections that could pull Bitcoin back toward 65,000. His longer-range targets are 92,000 within a year and an all-time high sometime in 2027, with December potentially setting up that run the way January 2023 did.

Matthew Siegel argues the Bitcoin rally is not driven by regulatory clarity but by Treasury actions reigniting fiscal dominance fears, and that lower real rates combined with a structurally weaker dollar make Bitcoin one of the best available hedges, with targets of 100,000 next year and 500,000 by 2029. Mike McGlone takes the opposing view, calling August a typical period for flushing out shorts in a bear market before prices roll back down, and characterizing Bitcoin as a poor-performing asset with high stock market correlation and significant downside risk, noting its 200-day moving average has rolled over even though price briefly reclaimed it. Bitcoin surged more than 20 percent in under five days and is moving roughly 140 times faster than the stock market, with Evan Aldo seeing a clear rotation from equities into Bitcoin on the charts. He tracks Bitcoin drawdown cycles against the S&P 500 as declining in severity across successive bear markets, from 87 percent to 83 percent to 74 percent to the most recent 60 percent, and notes Bitcoin is still down 46 percent against the S&P 500 despite a 30 percent recent gain relative to SPY, with Bitcoin expected to outperform the S&P 500 for the next two to three years.

Ethereum spot ETFs recorded their largest single-day buying in 10 months. Arthur Hayes describes Ethereum as the most hated mega-cap crypto, one that has never eclipsed its 2021 all-time high, yet hosts the most vibrant DeFi ecosystem and serves as the base chain for new real-world asset protocols including Robinhood, and he argues four years of underperformance sets up a sharp recovery. Evan Aldo places Ethereum's weekly 200-period simple moving average at approximately 2,486 and expects price to reach 2,500 by end of the current month before a 15 to 20 percent correction in September and October that could retest 2,000. He does not expect Ethereum to break above the 2,400 zone before midterms given historically bearish seasonality, and targets a breakout no earlier than December and most likely in the first quarter of next year, with a 3,000 target in Q1 after midterm-related fear subsides. Ethereum is still down 60 percent against Bitcoin since 2022.

Evan Aldo views MicroStrategy skeptically at current levels, noting it sold some Bitcoin at a loss which weakens its fundamental case versus holding Bitcoin directly, and that its chart versus Bitcoin remains below February lows with insufficient momentum. He would not sell Bitcoin to buy MicroStrategy and prefers the core asset. On Hyperliquid, he calls it the best bang for the buck among the top ten assets, with a short-term technical target of approximately 109 and a range of 100 to 130 by Q1 next year, and a prediction it could double within two to three years. He sees potential CFTC onshoring of Hyperliquid as a major positive catalyst. Hyperliquid is up 36 percent in the past week alongside Chainlink up 30 percent, XRP up roughly 40 percent, and Ethereum up 23 to 28 percent.

On Solana, Evan Aldo expects a retest or reach of 100 dollars by end of month followed by a 10 to 20 percent correction and then further upside, while a network upgrade has nearly halved block time with three more upgrades planned to reach 200 milliseconds. On XRP, which is up roughly 40 percent in three to four days, Evan Aldo sees a possible near-term retest of 120 but is generally bullish over two to three years. Ripple-related products ClearPool and Cicada now channel institutional capital into yield-earning assets on the XRP ledger. Evan Aldo does not hold Uniswap because other assets have more momentum, though he sees a technical target of 6 to 7 dollars and expects consolidation before a breakout later in 2025 or early 2026, describing Uniswap as having been in a bear market since 2021.

For a 10,000-dollar portfolio split among Ethereum, Solana, and XRP, Evan Aldo would allocate roughly 60 percent to Ethereum, 20 percent to Solana, and 20 percent to XRP. He recommends dollar-cost averaging from now through midterms rather than deploying a lump sum or placing revenge shorts, and suggests placing straddle buy orders 5 to 10 percent below current Ethereum price given his expectation of a 20 percent correction before midterms. He characterizes the next seven days as likely bullish followed by a bearish 30-day stretch with a 10 to 15 percent drop consistent with weak September seasonality, and adds that CFTC news and Washington developments introduce short-term uncertainty that could drive additional market movement.