Treasury Just Flipped the Setup for BTC & Gold w/ Kris Bullock & Bijan Maleki | Trading the Markets Aug. 19, 2026

Treasury announced it will double buybacks on 10-year and 30-year bonds beginning September 9th, causing long-end yields to drop sharply. Falling yields pulled the dollar lower, which Kris Bullock characterizes as directly bullish for Bitcoin and gold, with declining real rates mechanically pushing capital out the risk curve into those assets. Simultaneously, the CFTC and SEC announced major policy changes favorable to crypto, including clear token classifications, staking and DeFi guidance, and broader regulated market access, with Bullock noting these changes take effect regardless of whether the Clarity Act passes. The combination triggered what Bullock describes as the largest short squeeze in crypto going back to at least 2023.

At the time of recording, Bitcoin was up approximately 5.5 to 6 percent on the 24-hour period, Ethereum was up 8.5 to nearly 10 percent, Zcash was up near 10 percent, and Hyperliquid was up over 6 percent. Ethereum's outperformance reflects that it had already confirmed its bottom signal and moved above its 20-week moving average while Bitcoin had not yet done so. Bitcoin pushed back into its major moving average cloud and set new highs in the biggest move back into its prior sideways range since it broke down, but a weekly close above the 20-week moving average is required to flip the signal from a counter-trend rally in a downtrend to a confirmed trend reversal. Bullock explicitly pushes back against the view that the rally is a bear trap, arguing the macro and regulatory changes give it more substance, while stopping short of calling a market bottom. Fed minutes releasing later in the session were flagged as the next key variable that would either reinforce or undermine the falling yield narrative.

ETF inflows turned positive following these developments, and the Coinbase Premium Index briefly turned green for the first time since June 11th before returning to red. Bullock cautions that sustained positive ETF inflows over multiple consecutive days rather than sporadic days would be a more convincing bullish signal. Solana flipped its mega trend green earlier but still carries red dots that would invalidate acting on that signal, and is pushing against prior June highs. XRP is described as one of the weaker assets in the move, showing no bullish RSI divergences.

Hyperliquid bounced off its 200-day simple moving average, formed a V-shape recovery, and regained its green dot, confirming a full uptrend reconfirmation. Morpho largely avoided the broader crypto downtrend and is trading above its October peak while most crypto assets dropped 50 to 80 percent or more, with speakers arguing it deserves mention alongside Hyperliquid as a market outperformer. Chainlink produced two consecutive green dots, two large closes above its mega trend, and a push back above the 200-day moving average, forming what is described as a breakout setup. Monero flipped its 200-day moving average cloud with a bullish crossover, turned its 10, 20, and 50-day moving averages upward, and recorded three consecutive solid green weekly dots, with speakers describing its chart as a steady healthy grind rather than overextended. Zcash was noted as coiling in a volatility squeeze setup suggesting a potential breakout.

Pump.fun ranks third in 30-day revenue across all crypto protocols behind only Tether and Circle, accrues revenue back to token holders, and posted weekly gains of approximately 19, 28, and 36 percent in recent weeks. The token is trading outside its weekly Bollinger bands at a DMARC six on the setup count, indicating short-term overextension, though the setup could run to DMARC 13 before a meaningful correction. Ansem launched a launchpad on Solana that routes token launches through Pump.fun rather than competing with it, distributing value to community members via airdrops, and the activity around both platforms was cited as evidence that appetite for meme coin and community coin activity has not diminished.

Robinhood's blockchain launched roughly two months ago and has already reached number 13 among layer-one blockchains, surpassing Avalanche, SUI, and Optimism, and hosts 187 active protocols. The chain launched agentic trading allowing users to connect Claude or ChatGPT via MCPs to trade directly through an AI agent. Speakers predicted that a major DEX launching on Robinhood's chain to compete with Hyperliquid would capture significant attention and trigger a large price move, citing Solana, Ordinals, and Hyperliquid as prior examples of new chains producing one NFT collection that pumps significantly early on. Speakers cited SIREP, Aero, Ondo, Morpho, Uniswap, and Aave as DeFi projects likely to outperform coming out of market bottoms, arguing that market consciousness has materially shifted toward projects with real revenue and real-world adoption, and expressed intent to focus heavily on DeFi going forward. The speaker plans to deploy idle cash in the model portfolio by Thursday or Friday into Bitcoin or one or more altcoin positions to reduce heavy concentration in Hyperliquid.