Gold Is Outperforming Bitcoin - Can It Continue? | Trading The Market: August 12, 2026

Gold is outperforming Bitcoin in the current environment because easing financial conditions over the past two weeks are showing up in gold first, with risk-on money moving out of cash on the TradFi side flowing into gold rather than crypto. PaxG has reclaimed its 20-week moving average, the PaxG versus Bitcoin chart is showing early-stage uptrend signals including double green dots and a D-Mark reset at an upcount of only one and two, and Bijan Malekki predicted gold would flip its mega-trend signal green by the close of the current week and that the signal is likely to hold for some time.

Bitcoin is technically trapped between the 200-week moving average on the downside and a horizontal resistance range it lost in early June on the topside, with the 10-week moving average sitting flat in the middle. Although Bitcoin closed back above its mega-trend last week, this week produced a red engulfing candle that gave back that momentum. ETF flows are moving almost tick for tick with Bitcoin price, making ETFs the primary marginal buyer and seller. Bitcoin ETFs recorded their biggest weekly inflow since mid-April last week, followed by outflows this week, and the Coinbase premium index remains well into negative territory, confirming retail has not returned.

The Clarity Act being delayed to September and potentially failing may have weighed on Bitcoin's momentum. A cloture vote is scheduled for around September 15th, but Malekki said his gut feeling is that it will not pass. A failed vote would leave yield instruments and the banking sector in an unresolved regulatory state, with executive action covering only token launches, safe harbor, and token taxonomy rather than yield. Banks are pushing back against Coinbase offering yield on stablecoins, meaning neither banks nor Coinbase would have a clear win. The CFTC and SEC have rules ready to implement independently and are currently pro-crypto in their underlying stance, though Malekki acknowledged independent rulemaking carries risks similar to criticisms leveled at Gensler-era rulemaking.

Among crypto assets, NEAR has broken its diagonal trend line and 20-week moving average and is on the verge of losing primary horizontal support, with the prior bullish thesis declared invalidated on price action despite positive fundamentals. Pump.fun has fully reversed its weekly downtrend, is trading above its 10 and 20 moving averages with a bullish crossover, and flipped from a red to green mega-trend for the first time in its history within the last month, generating more revenue than Hyperliquid in certain weeks. Hyperliquid found support at its 200-day moving average and its usage metrics including open interest, active users, and fees are still setting higher highs despite weak price action, with its price chart largely tracking the Nasdaq correction and now bouncing alongside the Nasdaq recovery. Monero has broken back above its 200-day moving average cloud with two consecutive green momentum signals, while Zcash shows no comparable relative strength. JTX, a new Gito product launching on Solana's base chain rather than a layer two, was identified as a potential Hyperliquid competitor that could generate real demand for the Solana token, though it remains in beta.

The expected post-halving pump following the 2024 halving did not materialize clearly, in contrast to the moves that followed the 2016 and 2020 halvings. The Trump bump may have substituted for or obscured the halving effect, and each successive halving has a diminishing supply impact. Macro conditions were described as having a larger outsized impact on Bitcoin price than the halving alone, with the COVID liquidity influx amplifying the 2020 move while Bitcoin was largely flat for extended stretches over the past three years due to the absence of direct economic stimulus.

In equities, the optical sector experienced the largest correction of all tracked sectors year to date but also produced the largest bounce and reclaimed the top position across the full sector rack. AXTI posted gains of 46 percent and 27 percent in consecutive weeks, Lumentum gained 24 percent last week, and Coherent was up 44 percent last week despite having fully lost its trend. MFINAL was preferred over those names because it did not lose its trend or flip its mega-trend signal during the correction. Eaton showed exceptional relative strength by trading sideways rather than pulling back during the correction and is positioned to benefit from virtually any data center buildout globally due to its universal electrical infrastructure products. Arista Networks confirmed a mega-trend switch with no meaningful correction, Dell barely lost its mega-trend and showed virtually no correction, and Supermicro and CoreWeave were up 17 percent and 19 percent respectively on the day of recording. Memory names including Micron remain volatile and have not been re-added, with the view that the biggest returns from memory have already been realized. The speaker is avoiding hyperscalers and large AI spenders because their revenue outlook from AI is not yet known, preferring picks-and-shovels companies that receive AI spending rather than deploy it.