ROLLUP: Bitcoin’s Fork Died in 2 Blocks | Saylor Sells Again | Robinhood Chain | Fidelity Staking

A Bitcoin soft fork called BIP 110, designed to restrict arbitrary data storage on the blockchain, launched on August 8th at block 961,632 and died within two blocks. It attracted only 2.53% of total hash power against a required 55%, meaning blocks would have taken close to a year to mine rather than 10 minutes. No exchange listed the fork coin and no miners supported it. Nick Carter called it the worst fork in Bitcoin history and the death of Bitcoin maximalism, while Jameson Lopp said he expects Bitcoin Puritan culture to become more unhinged. The broader takeaway is that Bitcoin's direction is controlled by a squishy mix of node runners, miners, exchanges, ETF issuers, and the social and economic layer, with the hardcore maximalist faction described as a cultural relic of the 2017 to 2019 period.

Strategy sold 1,691 Bitcoin over the past week, adding approximately 650 million dollars to its USD reserve, marking the third consecutive week of meaningful Bitcoin sales by Saylor. Saylor's average cost basis is approximately 75,000 dollars, meaning he is selling at a loss relative to that basis. SDRC preferred shares are now trading near 95, close to par at 100, suggesting the sales are prioritizing restoration of SDRC credit health. Strategy now holds 2.7 years of yield in dollars from its reserve. One host argued Saylor needs to sell aggressively for Bitcoin to reawaken, while the other believes Saylor is not the primary factor suppressing Bitcoin prices.

Bitcoin fell approximately 2.5% on the week to around 63,300, dipping under its 200-week moving average, which currently sits near 64,000 and has been creeping upward from 61,500 when Bitcoin previously dumped to 59,000. Saylor's sales are occurring directly into that moving average support level. One host shifted from 60% confident the bottom is already in to 40% confident, trending more bearish. Michael Nato stated the bear cycle is 85% complete with approximately two more months remaining before a bottom, and Ben Cowan predicted a Bitcoin bottom around October followed by an upward move. The absence of contagion events like FTX or Three Arrows Capital is cited as a reason a deep break below the 200-week moving average is considered less likely than in the prior cycle.

Gold futures cleared 4,500 for the first time since June 5th, with gold up 14% since July 17th. Gold started January 2024 at 2,000 an ounce, started January 2025 at 2,600, peaked near 5,600, and fell to just below 4,000 before its recent recovery. Michael Howell attributes gold's rise primarily to PBOC liquidity injections, arguing that Chinese monetary debasement flows into gold because Bitcoin is banned in China, real estate has burned investors, and capital controls exist. The PBOC paused liquidity injections around February to March, coinciding with gold's price decline, and appears to have resumed. Whether PBOC-driven gold demand takes oxygen away from Bitcoin is uncertain, with one view holding it provides dry tinder for Bitcoin once Fed liquidity resumes.

Robinhood Chain generated 3.6 million dollars in blockchain revenue in its first full month live in July, capturing 38% of all Ethereum L2 revenue and ranking as the number one Ethereum L2 by revenue, ahead of Polygon proof of stake and Base. App layer TVL is just under 1 billion dollars, stablecoin supply exceeds 1 billion dollars, and stock token TVL tripled from 10 million to 30 million dollars, though that figure is described as pipsqueak numbers. Meme coin trading, not tokenized stocks, is the primary driver of Robinhood Chain revenue, a signal reinforced by Robinhood CEO Vlad listing the meme coin Cash Cat on the Robinhood app.

Fidelity announced it is adding staking and quarterly cash distributions to its Ethereum ETF, which holds approximately one billion dollars in assets. Fidelity discussed potentially staking up to 100% of its ETH holdings and will pay staking yield as a cash dividend to holders, contrasting with BlackRock's approach of accruing staking yield into the underlying asset value rather than distributing it as cash. The EIP proposal to cap ETH staking issuance is considered effectively dead, with people inside the Ethereum Foundation reportedly unwilling to publicly argue the pro-cap side. ETH annualized issuance is currently below 0.8% per year, at or below Bitcoin's issuance rate, and one speaker argued that cutting staking issuance would be a step backward given that Wall Street values ETH partly for its yield characteristics, with the 1 to 3% range described as a Goldilocks zone.

The Clarity Act passing this year was sitting at roughly 18% probability on Polymarket at time of recording, with a congressional vote expected in September but passage not guaranteed. Democrats and banks both have incentives to delay the bill past the midterms. SEC chair Paul Atkins may attempt to implement parts of the Clarity Act through regulation rather than legislation, potentially including a token safe harbor, though any such actions could be reversed depending on the 2028 election outcome. If the Clarity Act fails, the stablecoin yield loophole that banks sought to close would remain intact for crypto holders.