Crypto Rundown: Hedge Funds Go Long Bitcoin

Hedge funds on the CME are now net long Bitcoin, a positioning that occurs roughly once or twice a year. Brendan pointed to two prior instances as evidence of its significance: in April 2025 the shift coincided with the bottom of the tariff crash, and in March 2026 it preceded a local bottom followed by a rally of 30% or more. At current prices, with Bitcoin in the low 60,000s and Ethereum around 1,800, hedge funds appear to see limited downside and substantially more upside, though Brendan cautioned that further downside remains possible and the market is not in a euphoria phase.

Bitcoin tagged lows around the 60,000 area at the start of July and end of June for the third time, having also touched similar levels in February and May. The asset has held roughly the low 60,000s to high 50,000s since February without breaking convincingly below that range, and early signs of bearish exhaustion are visible. The fear and greed index had been in fear for much of the recent period, with extreme fear the prior month, and the CoinMarketCap top 20 was down approximately 1% over the seven-day period at time of recording.

Bank of America officially recommended clients allocate up to 4% of their portfolio into Bitcoin and crypto. Unlike Morgan Stanley or BlackRock, Bank of America does not appear to have its own Bitcoin product, making the recommendation advisory rather than product-driven. Tom Lee was reported to have made 58 straight weeks of Ethereum purchases, described as a bullish narrative building beneath the flat market. Trump Media Company and Technology disclosed a Bitcoin treasury of over 900 million dollars, and because its stakeholders have close ties to the White House, speculation arose about potential Bitcoin legislation or a strategic reserve push, though no concrete action has been taken and the speakers said that outcome does not yet warrant confident prediction.

The Bank of Russia approved trading of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT, but not XRP, for ordinary investors on public markets, described as a first for Russia's central bank framework. Russia and China had previously tried to restrict citizen participation in crypto markets. The speakers did not view the Russian approval as a major liquidity catalyst but said it signals continued global adoption.

Stablecoin card spending surged 16% in July to a record 1.03 billion dollars, representing approximately 200% year-over-year growth. Over 10 million purchases were made via stablecoin cards in July alone across 60 or more countries, with 68% of volume coming from non-US users. Brendan said the roughly 70% overseas share indicates a large untapped addressable market still exists within the United States, and that infrastructure providers correlated to a sector growing 200% year over year should eventually see that growth reflected in their own valuations. Brendan described the current moment as the biggest disconnect in crypto history between infrastructure and adoption on one side and asset pricing on the other, arguing that how big money and institutions are positioning has not yet been priced into crypto assets.

On monetary policy, Brendan said the idea of multiple rate hikes is ludicrous given current data, pointing to oil down approximately 30% from a high of 120 dollars to near 80 dollars and to inflation that he said has not been severe when examined through CPI, PPI, and other measures. Jobs numbers have been repeatedly revised downward, with cited examples of revisions of 66,000, 43,000, and 23,000. The speakers said the most likely outcome for rates this year is one cut or none, rejecting Wall Street projections of three or four hikes as unsupported, with Brendan suggesting some such projections may be tactical rather than genuine. Brendan added that rate cuts historically create a risk-on environment in which Bitcoin tends to perform well.

US housing inventory has climbed above 1.1 million homes for sale, the highest level since 2009, and elevated supply relative to demand should put downward pressure on home prices, which in turn could contribute to lower overall inflation. Many homeowners are reluctant to list because they locked in mortgage rates around 3% during the COVID era, effectively trapping their equity and limiting their ability to upgrade. Prediction market odds and the CME FedWatch tool both show that the probability of near-term rate cuts has been declining, which compounds the dilemma for homeowners weighing a move against the cost of taking on a new mortgage at current rates.