Bitcoin Is the PUREST AI Trade | Jordi Visser

Jordi Visser argues that Bitcoin is the purest AI trade not because it moves in lockstep with AI stocks, which it has not done since October when the agentic revolution began, but because it sits at the intersection of AI-driven disruption. He frames Bitcoin as a belief and store of value rather than an innovation, and contends that AI's deflationary pressure will drive the cost of things toward zero, making Bitcoin's scarcity the relevant hedge against deflation rather than inflation. Crypto fundamentals are the best they have ever been except for price.

Visser maps AI compute demand across four escalating phases: pre-training, coding agents, consumer agents, and real-world models, with each step requiring thousands of times more compute than the prior stage. Coding agents working around the clock compress a calendar year of work into roughly three months. S&P earnings growth is running at over 30 percent year over year while no net jobs have been created over the last year, a combination he says has never happened before. The scale of AI capital needs has grown beyond what major tech companies can fund from free cash flow, with Google tapping debt markets for 25 billion dollars, Intel upsizing a raise to 20 billion, Nvidia assembling 500 billion, and Morgan Stanley directing 1.5 trillion at AI innovation and infrastructure. He expects AI capex of more than one trillion dollars per year for at least three consecutive years to pressure the long end of the yield curve.

Visser interprets a recent US Treasury intervention in the yen as a signal that the US is in fiscal trouble, comparing it to the last coordinated US-BOJ intervention in June 1998, a period that included the LTCM blowup, the Russian default, and a yen revaluation that contributed to Tiger Management's collapse. The Treasury intervened on a Friday after the close, with Japan being one of the largest holders of US Treasuries at a moment when yields had reached effectively 20-year highs. Gold rose 7 percent that same week, only the fourth time in 17 years it had done so, with two of the prior three instances occurring during crisis periods. He reads the combination as the beginning of monetary printing and views gold, silver, and Bitcoin breaking out simultaneously as the key signal driven by AI solving the spending crisis.

Visser puts the true probability of the Fed raising rates in September at zero and recommends taking the no on prediction markets, arguing the US cannot tighten in the same month the BOJ raises rates because it needs rate differentials to maintain yen weakness and dollar strength. He is bearish on fiat assets five years out and argues that bonds, venture capital, private equity, and private credit have already stalled in growth, leaving equities as the last growing fiat asset class. He believes AI will allow entrepreneurs to create new businesses in a day without needing capital, shifting the growth story toward the crypto ecosystem, which he estimates could reach 100 to 200 trillion in size over a decade compared to 700 trillion in value created by middlemen in the fiat system.

Cloudflare data already shows internet traffic is more agents than humans, and Visser expects AI agents to begin transacting in crypto in a meaningful way by the end of the current year, with transaction volumes growing parabolically once agents are plugged in. He calls 2027 the year of consumer agents and therefore the year of crypto, drawing a parallel to institutional crypto adoption anticipated in 2021 but actually materializing in 2025 and 2026. AI agents will not KYC on centralized exchanges and will demand transaction fees close to zero, shifting value from spread to volume and velocity. He has personally begun putting more money into Ethereum, Solana, and tokenization-related assets and predicts those beta assets will outperform Bitcoin in the next crypto rally.

Bitcoin is sitting on its 200-week moving average and has been testing that level for roughly two months. The weekly RSI is oversold for only the fourth time in Bitcoin's history, with bullish divergence present, a condition that previously appeared only during the FTX period. Visser is an Elliott Wave practitioner and believes Bitcoin is entering its third wave, which he expects to be the largest. He notes that Bitcoin rallied from 59 to its current level while multiple negative catalysts, including a Coldcard hack and the CLARITY Act falling below 20 percent passage probability, failed to push prices lower, which he reads as exhaustion of sellers and a bottoming signal.

Visser identifies the key missing element from the prior cycle as altcoin participation, arguing that Bitcoin leading upward without Ethereum, Solana, and Sui rising alongside it does not constitute a true bull market. TradFi sentiment has improved, with Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan all embracing Bitcoin over the last three months, but TradFi participants are not yet actively buying. He predicts that a year from now no single catalyst will be identifiable but rather a collection including tokenization, NFTs, the broader ecosystem, and Bitcoin itself, and that a long bull run will be underway by approximately 2030.