Venture Mandates, Cloudflare Wallets, Circle Earnings & Saddam Hussein Patek Philippe

Rob said his firm seeks businesses where crypto is an enabling advantage and where it has a genuine edge, rather than stretching into fields such as hardware, nuclear, or robotics. Examples included Rain, which uses stablecoin rails for fintech and payments, and Polymarket, whose opportunity he said extends beyond its on-chain infrastructure. He also described an agent-infrastructure company offering tools to build and run agents, with x402 and stablecoin payments; Anthropic, xAI, and Coinbase were among its investors. A routing product spun out from the company reportedly cut token spending by about 80% for its first few clients.

The discussion framed venture investing as a balance between risk-adjusted returns and a fund’s sector expertise. Crypto now requires specialists in areas including cryptography, security, risk management, capital markets, infrastructure, and consumer applications, while LPs and founders scrutinize whether a firm has the relevant reputation and experience. One view was that a firm should establish itself in a focused niche before earning the right to broaden; another was that firms can reinvent themselves and innovation spans technology sectors. Sequoia’s move from technology and electronics, including semiconductors, toward a broader mandate around its eighth fund was cited as an example, as was Dragonfly’s expansion into payments after success in crypto. Santi said he is spending more time evaluating traditional businesses and where investment can unlock the most value.

A $500,000 investment in Anthropic options made three years earlier was estimated to be worth about $20 million to $25 million, or roughly 40 times its value, despite Anthropic’s valuation rising about 1,000 times. The speaker said that result could fit Anthropic’s growth but cautioned that most hardware venture companies would not perform similarly, and that investors entering at multibillion-dollar valuations could lose money. For 2022 venture funds, the 90th percentile was reported at 1.68x TVPI, with only 10–12% of capital distributed back; the speaker said the era of earning 10x in two years is over.

Cloudflare Wallets separates a human-controlled account wallet from agent-controlled virtual wallets, with spending limits, allowlists, and transaction caps. It supports stablecoins and x402 payments attached to web requests, including payments for APIs, content, and AI inference, while remaining blockchain- and stablecoin-agnostic and focusing on identity and authorization across major chains. A speaker estimated that about 25% of the internet runs through Cloudflare and bots account for 55–60% of internet activity, but said it remains unclear how agents will transact or who will participate. The expected model is human ownership and delegated controls: people fund wallets, set agent parameters, and bear responsibility for overspending. Stablecoins will be one payment rail, not the only one; tokenized single-use cards can impose per-transaction and price limits, while stablecoins may serve peer-to-peer payments and settlement. Direct stablecoin transfers still lack card-style chargeback protections. Circle’s escrow protocol was intended to address that problem, but a speaker said such efforts have not taken off.

Circle’s earnings were mixed but exceeded what many crypto-native observers expected. Revenue rose 7% year over year, while net profit of about $50 million and adjusted profit of about $140 million were both slightly down quarter over quarter. USDC circulation fell from $77 billion to $73 billion, and on-chain transaction volume declined from $21.5 trillion to $15 trillion, while Circle Payments Network volume rose about 75%. Circle apparently doubled its other-revenue guidance from about $150 million to $300 million, possibly reflecting revenue recognition from the Arc token presale, whose cash had already been collected; Arc mainnet was scheduled for around September 16, roughly a month after the discussion. Rob called Circle the public-market choice for direct stablecoin exposure, but cited competition from Tether, the OUSD consortium, and companies such as Western Union. He said Circle pays out about 62% of reserve income and expected that share to rise. At about $64, Circle had fallen roughly 70% from what a speaker called a normalized level; analyst targets near $100 implied about 32 times 2027 EBITDA, which that speaker considered expensive. Opinions differed: one speaker saw more downside than upside if the valuation required multiple expansion, Rob was long Circle, and others preferred Coinbase or Visa.

Western Union’s potential stablecoin offering would let customers hold and spend dollars in its app, potentially earn rewards, and avoid agent visits or foreign-exchange fees. The opportunity is uncertain because some customers prefer cash and the company’s previous debit card saw little use. Western Union processes about $110 billion in cross-border transfers, serves 50 million yearly active customers, generates about $4 billion in annual revenue, and has roughly 375,000 active agents. Rain provides its broader stablecoin stack, including card issuance, and had launched in 37 markets, with plans to reach 60 by year-end and work toward all 200 Western Union markets within 18 months. Rain’s wallet agreements are independently negotiated and typically combine a platform or minimum fee, user-based fees, and a percentage of transaction volume.

The Patek Philippe associated with Saddam Hussein’s era was described as a political gift to Iraqi military figures, bureaucrats, diplomats, and VIP visitors, not as a watch sold publicly. The auctioned watch was not said to have belonged to Hussein; the speaker thought it likely belonged to a dignitary he hosted. The current bid was reported at $26,000, above the speaker’s earlier bid.