Cody Carbone: We've Never Been This Close To CLARITY (Full Breakdown)

Cody Carbone, who provides industry perspective during active negotiations among Republicans, Democrats, the White House, and Treasury, says the market structure bill is the closest crypto legislation has come to passage after nearly a decade of effort. The bill runs 616 pages and Carbone compares its magnitude to the Securities Act of the 1930s, arguing that without it the United States will never become the crypto capital of the world.

The Senate math is tight. There are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, and Carbone estimates 50 to 51 Republican yes votes are achievable, with Mitch McConnell, Josh Hawley, and Rand Paul identified as potential no votes or absences. Because cloture requires 60 votes to end debate, 10 Democratic crossover votes are needed. Eighteen Democrats voted for the GENIUS Act and are being targeted, and Carbone believes the 10 votes are gettable if an ethics deal is reached.

The central obstacle is the ethics provisions. Democrats need language strong enough to tell their base they constrained Trump from profiting off digital assets, but getting the president comfortable with strong ethics language has been very difficult. Carbone says Trump has offered to limit his crypto activities, place money in a blind trust, and not issue new tokens, which he calls unprecedented for any president. Democrats are also demanding divestment of money already made, which remains unresolved.

A secondary dispute involves enforcement. The current bill designates the U.S. attorney general as the sole enforcement mechanism, which Democrats oppose because the AG is appointed by the president. Democrats want state attorneys general to also have prosecuting power, though Carbone acknowledges constitutional questions exist about whether state AGs can sue federal officials. Democrats also want the ethics provision written to apply beyond the current administration so future officials could pursue Trump for actions taken during his term. Carbone says new ethics language is being negotiated between Senate Republicans and Democrats and could emerge within 24 hours, and he expects state AGs will likely have a role in the final compromise.

August 7th is a real deadline. If no procedural votes occur before the congressional recess, Carbone says the bill is likely dead this Congress. The September session is only three weeks long and would only require a final passage vote if procedural steps are completed before recess. If Democrats win the House or Senate in the 2026 midterms, Carbone predicts the market structure bill does not return until 2029.

Prediction markets place the probability of the bill being signed into law by 2026 at approximately 30 percent. Carbone says he is taking the over on that estimate, pointing out that no negotiating party has left the table despite dissatisfaction with last week's text, which he views as a meaningful positive signal.