The SpaceX IPO Is Here. Time to Lift Off? | REKT Vision

SpaceX is described as nearly impossible to value on fundamentals because forward revenue depends on uncertain factors including data centers in space and the Starlink buildout, meaning the stock will trade primarily on sentiment. The pre-IPO price was 135 dollars per share, with early talk of an opening around 165 dollars per share, and SpaceX was trading at roughly a 1.6 trillion dollar valuation on Hyperliquid at the time of recording. Mando expects the valuation to sustain in the one and a half to two trillion dollar range, with Elon Musk's involvement cited as the key reason investors are comfortable pricing it on a forward revenue multiple. SpaceX is noted as the first company in history to IPO with crypto on its balance sheet, holding approximately 18 Bitcoin.

Capital and retail attention are being pulled away from crypto toward SpaceX and other large tech offerings including a Google secondary offering and anticipated IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI. Polymarket data points to an Anthropic IPO in Q3 or around September, driven by rapid revenue growth, while an OpenAI IPO is expected before year end and may represent a mini top in the AI space. Current AI valuations are not seen as resembling dot com levels, with chip manufacturers like Micron and Korean chipmakers trading at single digit earnings multiples offered as evidence. Google is described as underrated in AI despite building its own TPU chips, though it has lost mindshare to Anthropic and OpenAI, whose founders largely came from Google. Google owns approximately 15 percent of Anthropic and also holds a stake in SpaceX. Nvidia and Google are identified as the two most interesting hyperscaler plays, while SK Hynix and Micron are the two favored memory trade picks. The chip and memory trade is called the strongest AI-related trade of the year, though new fab construction during demand surges historically causes the trade to unwind over subsequent years, and demand for memory inventory being locked in for one to three years raises questions about the quality of that demand.

On MicroStrategy, the speaker is critical of Michael Saylor's decision to issue preferred equity and use cash to buy back converts rather than refinance normally. MicroStrategy has approximately 6 billion dollars of bonds becoming puttable over the next two years, with first maturities in 2027, and preferred equity dividends cost approximately 1.7 billion dollars per year. The equity NAV sits at roughly 0.83 and overall company NAV at approximately 1.2. The speaker expects Saylor to issue new stock to retire debt and pay preferred dividends, which could push equity NAV down another 20 to 30 percent, and argues investors should simply own Bitcoin directly rather than use MicroStrategy as a proxy. Saylor's debt-financed Bitcoin strategy is characterized as a potential market overhang rather than a tailwind.

Hyperliquid is described as the speaker's top trade in Q1 and Q2 and the best-performing L1 trade. It generates approximately 500 million dollars per year in revenue and trades at roughly 20 times revenue on a current market cap of approximately 10 to 12 billion dollars, with more fees than Coinbase and volume rivaling Binance. Revenues have been declining over the course of the year, attributed to tokenomics rather than booming revenue growth. A recent partnership with Coinbase and Circle for stablecoin yield was announced. US regulatory approval is rated 50-50 and may require a separately carved-out entity, and the Clarity Act could force a level of decentralization the platform does not currently have. Institutional US access could bring hundreds of billions of dollars in volume.

NEAR Protocol is the speaker's other top current trade. NEAR built a cross-chain privacy DEX called NEAR Intents where competing solvers bridge assets at the cheapest cost for users, and NEAR has committed to directing application fees toward token buybacks while transitioning toward an app-chain model. The speaker's framework for identifying strong crypto alpha trades requires three elements: a revenue-generating product, an active buyback program, and exposure to a growing new narrative. NEAR is offered as a current early-stage example fitting this framework, though the speaker explicitly frames it as speculative rather than a confirmed call. Privacy, prediction markets, and perpetuals are identified as the three major themes in the current crypto market.

ZCash dropped over 40 percent and possibly up to 80 percent after an AI cloud service found a bug creating a counterfeiting vulnerability that allowed people to mint ZCash tokens unknowingly, before the price bounced back. The speaker prefers privacy as a feature rather than a standalone privacy coin, citing the difficulty of verifying token supply at the base layer.

Bitcoin was trading around 59K to 61K when Rekt Vision launched in May 2024 and was at roughly the same level at the time of recording, despite having reached an all-time high of approximately 126K in the intervening period. The speaker is predicting another leg lower, possibly into the mid to low 50s, before any recovery, noting that significant supply was sold by early holders when Bitcoin crossed 100K. The speaker remains long-term bullish on crypto due to a fundamental belief in the need for a non-fiat currency given ongoing money printing, but cautions investors to wait for signs of a genuine breakout rather than acting on long-term bullishness alone.