Is a Bigger Move Coming?! | Trading the Markets

Bitcoin is at a key inflection point after dipping to around 60,000, forming a double bottom, and bouncing back to its 20-day moving average. That bounce ended on a DeMark 9 exhaustion signal, volume has since fallen well below its moving average, and Bitcoin closed above 65,000 resistance for only one day before closing back below it. The next move is either a rollover or a reclaim of 65,000 as support. A bullish RSI divergence on the weekly timeframe is still intact, but Chris sees Bitcoin potentially falling into the lower fifties within the next two to three months, with approximately October as the time horizon for a capitulation bottom. A mean reversion to the 20-day moving average does nothing to invalidate that bearish thesis.

The alt season index sits at 46 out of 100, meaning 46 of the top 100 coins are outpacing Bitcoin over the last 90 days. Bitcoin dominance has leveled off after a significant flush, while others dominance has been steadily climbing. Many altcoins are above their 200-day moving averages, but major top-10 assets including Ethereum and Solana are not faring as well as smaller altcoins, with both only mean reverting to their 20-day moving averages and sitting well away from key horizontal levels.

Hyperliquid received a DeMark 13 exhaustion signal on June 4th, bottomed on June 11th, and has since heavily outpaced Bitcoin. Volume peaked on an earlier DeMark 13 in May and has rolled over, and RSI shows a bearish divergence relative to the most recent price peak. The token is currently at a DeMark 5 on the setup, suggesting it could run somewhat longer, so the recommendation is to take some profits but not go underweight given fundamental catalysts still in play. On day one of the SpaceX IPO, Hyperliquid generated over one billion dollars in trading volume, and the platform has become the venue of choice for high-demand trading events. If regulatory confirmation comes through making perpetuals legally available in the US, HYPE is projected to reach 300 dollars, roughly a 5x from current levels and still below Binance's current market cap.

The argument that Hyperliquid has a larger addressable market than Solana rests on traditional finance being exponentially bigger than Solana's current ecosystem, and the expectation is that HYPE will eventually flip Solana's market cap. Solana is described as the speaker's second biggest personal holding with no plans to sell, and rotating out of Solana into HYPE entirely is not recommended because capitulating on an asset and rotating often coincides with the original asset reversing upward. A gradual rotation strategy chipping away at one position over weeks or months is described as preferable to an all-or-nothing switch.

Gido, the largest liquid staking protocol for Ethereum, is up 153 percent over the last 90 days and has broken above its 200-day moving average. Much of the short-term price action is attributed to a promotional campaign through BitGit offering higher yields, and there is chatter about a new buyback mechanism. The promotional campaign is finite and buying driven by it may not sustain once it ends, so a wait-and-see stance is taken pending confirmation of the buyback mechanism.

Injective gained approximately 3,340 to 3,400 percent at its 2023 peak and recently upgraded its mainnet to improve utility for perpetuals, stablecoins, and real-world asset tokenization, accruing fees back to token holders. It is currently at or near its 200-day moving average and lacks significant real-world usage despite competitive architecture, so it is on the watch list but not yet a buy. If Injective attracts a major application or significant real-world usage, the speaker sees substantial upside given its financial infrastructure positioning.

Aerodrome's predictive allocation model announcement pushed its price above the 200-day moving average, but moving averages remain flat or pointed downward, RSI is overextended, and a DeMark 9 signal argues against chasing the rally. NEAR changed its tokenomics to include buybacks and burns, is above both its 200-day and 20-week moving averages, but RSI peaks are much lower on subsequent price peaks indicating waning momentum, making it premature to chase. Ondo trades within its 200-day moving average cloud and looks better than many altcoins but carries significant token unlock overhang as a risk. Stellar Lumens has real institutional partnerships but does not accrue substantial value back to token holders, making it suitable only for a speculative low-allocation strategy targeting periodic large rallies rather than a reliable long-term hold.