Crypto Rundown: Bitcoin at a Breaking Point — Crypto News & TA You Need to Know

Bitcoin has been chopping sideways for roughly a week after a failed attempt to hold above the 50-day moving average. The Nasdaq fell approximately one to one and a half percent, then two to two and a half percent, then nearly three percent on consecutive days, and Bitcoin only began selling off after equities rolled over, reinforcing the view that crypto had been leading traditional markets higher before the reversal.

CPI came in at 3.5 percent versus 3.8 percent expected, core CPI fell to 2.6 percent versus 2.8 percent expected, and month-over-month CPI dropped negative 0.4 percent, the largest monthly decline since May 2020. PPI came in at 5.5 versus 6.2 expected and month-over-month PPI fell negative 0.3 percent. Because crypto has historically performed well when rate cuts are expected and poorly when rate hikes are on the horizon, these softer prints represent a meaningful macro tailwind.

Since last October Bitcoin has made lower highs repeatedly and has been unable to break above the 200-day moving average, though it found a tentative bottom in the high fifty-thousands to low sixty-thousands. Three technical levels converged near that low: the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the 2022 cycle low to the all-time high at 126,000 lands at 57,800, the recent Coinbase pair low was 57,700, and the anchored VWAP from the 2022 cycle low at 15,000 also converged near that level. Bitcoin briefly closed below its 200-week moving average before reclaiming it, which was described as a bullish fake-out signal. The Bitcoin-to-Nasdaq ratio is hitting multi-year lows at a long-term trend line, and each prior instance over the last nine years where Bitcoin was undervalued relative to the Nasdaq on this ratio marked a cycle turn, though the pattern can take several weeks or months to resolve and this is acknowledged as one chart and one data point.

The 20-day and 50-day moving averages are currently very close together on the Bitcoin daily chart, and a golden cross where the 20-day crosses above the 50-day followed by price bouncing off that level as support would be a bullish signal. The first sign of short-to-medium term strength would be a reclaim and retest of 67,000 to 68,000, with the 50-week moving average near 70,000 as the continuation target. A retest of 60,000 forming a higher low remains a plausible scenario before any move higher. Both speakers said they want to accumulate rather than sell while acknowledging downside risk still exists.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows were negative for approximately nine consecutive weeks before recording their first positive inflow week. Larry Fink expressed bullishness on markets over the next 12 months and said leverage in Bitcoin and crypto is less extreme than before, though one speaker noted Fink is talking his book given BlackRock holds the largest Bitcoin ETF. Morgan Stanley has launched Bitcoin spot trading on E-Trade and is filing S-1s for Ethereum and Solana ETFs, a notable move given Morgan Stanley is not historically a major ETF player. The motivation appears to be keeping fee revenue in-house rather than directing clients to competitors like BlackRock, and more competitors entering the crypto ETF space is seen as improving overall market liquidity and efficiency.

Passage odds for the Clarity Act have fallen to roughly 40 percent, below the 50 percent threshold, with a clause barring President Trump's family from profiting in crypto cited as the primary sticking point blocking Democratic support. Congressional recess in August was treated as an informal deadline, raising concerns about whether the bill can advance before midterm election dynamics take over.

Hot tech sectors including memory, chips, and AI went parabolic before reversing sharply, with DRAM memory falling 40 percent off its highs and South Korean market volatility now at historic levels comparable to 2008 and the 1999 dot-com bubble. The EWY South Korea ETF is down 30 percent from all-time highs. Uber was among the first companies to publicly flag excessive AI token expenditure costs, and Chinese open source models like Kimi K3 are free and large scale, which is beginning to undermine the US AI subscription pricing narrative. AI capital expenditure by major companies is described as largely speculative on forward returns with ROI not yet demonstrated. Bitcoin miners including Riot and Iron pivoted from mining to selling AI energy, causing their stocks to rise hundreds of percent before correcting 30 to 60 percent.

Galaxy announced a partnership making it the official data center and digital asset partner of Texas Tech, including stadium naming rights, with deal money expected to flow into Texas Tech's NIL fund. Speakers speculated that Galaxy's deeper interest may be access to Texas Tech's substantial land holdings in Texas for data center development, noting that many investors do not recognize Galaxy as an AI and data center play in addition to a digital assets firm.