Why Bitcoin Still Can’t Catch a Bid?| Trading The Markets w/ Kris Bullock & Bijan Maleki

Bitcoin closed below a major support and resistance line before recovering above it the following day, but was immediately rejected at the 10-day moving average. Bullish divergence signals on both the daily and weekly timeframes have weakened considerably, with continued downside momentum eroding RSI divergence. Kris Bullock expects Bitcoin to chop between now and the September to October timeframe with a real possibility of price dropping into the 50s. A bottoming flag signal is present but requires one of the next two candles to close above the flag's highest point to be confirmed.

Global liquidity remains in a prolonged downtrend, with only a weak bounce at the monthly rate of change level while the three-month, six-month, and yearly rates of change all point sharply downward. The dollar bounced at the same level as liquidity due to their inverse correlation and continues to show meaningful strength. Bijan Maleki notes this disproportionately pressures non-yield-bearing assets like Bitcoin and gold relative to tech and AI stocks, which are insulated by revenues, order backlogs, and capital expenditure.

Bitcoin ETF holdings have fallen to their lowest level in approximately one year, giving up essentially a full year of ETF gains, and total ETF volume dipped below total Bitcoin held in corporate treasuries and digital asset trusts for the first time since the ETF chart was created. Maleki frames the rapid institutional selling of ETFs as a checkbox that needs to be completed before a bottom can be confirmed. Strategy and other treasury holders have continued buying, meaning aggregate institutional Bitcoin holdings have only given up a few months of price action rather than a full year.

The Clarity Act is reportedly being pushed into 2027, adding further regulatory uncertainty. Bullock argues that even if the act passes this year, which he calls a coin flip, it would primarily create a more investable environment for institutions rather than delivering an immediate liquidity injection or triggering a new bull market for retail participants.

Among individual tokens, Solana shows the most relative strength of the major assets outside of Hyperliquid, though Bullock cautions it has broken above its track line and reversed multiple times previously. Ethereum shows no bottoming or reversal signals, with steep downward trajectory and red indicators across the board. XRP is setting lower lows at 1.05 dollars, down 72 percent from its all-time high of 3.65 dollars, and the XRP to Bitcoin ratio has not materially broken out of a key resistance level since losing it in the 2019 bear market. Bullock predicts Ethereum, Solana, and XRP will remain anemic for at least the next three months and recommends patience and dollar cost averaging over aggressive buying on wick-down candles.

Hyperliquid transitioned from a steady green uptrend through early June to a neutral signal with a yellow track line and no dots, which Bullock considers better positioned than most of crypto given that its track line is not pointed downward. Venice received a new funding round valuing it at one billion dollars but its chart shows red dots despite green candles, signaling momentum building to the downside. Circle's weekly chart printed a red candle for the first time under the indicator being used, and after briefly confirming a bottom signal it broke back down through key support and is now firmly in downtrend territory. Circle's stock is described as behaving like a meme coin narrative cycle regardless of underlying revenue performance, moving in correlation with Bitcoin rather than reflecting business fundamentals.

Coinbase has outperformed Circle as a stock and shows a better chart trend, though it sits approximately 66 percent down from its peak. Its revenue streams span institutional holdings, ETFs, treasury yields, trading fees, retail, custody, staking, Aerodrome, and Base chain, with plans to add perpetuals trading and prediction markets, yet reduced retail trading volume is cited as a significant drag. One speaker is adding Coinbase to their watch list as a potential buy once upside confidence returns, but cautions that the Coinbase to Bitcoin chart has largely tracked sideways since 2022 with higher beta to Bitcoin, raising the question of whether holding Coinbase actually outperforms holding Bitcoin directly.

Analyst Rect Capital observed that peaks and bottoms of bull and bear markets have historically been accompanied by black swan events, citing the FTX collapse at the end of the 2022 bear market as an example. Rect Capital predicted a black swan event may occur within the next one to four months that would cement the final low of the current bear market, while noting this cycle could avoid one since the pattern is historical precedent rather than a guarantee. One speaker framed any such event as a buying opportunity rather than a bearish outcome.