Is a Bigger Move Coming?! | Trading the Markets

Bitcoin sits at a critical inflection point after dipping to around 60,000 last week, forming a double bottom, and bouncing back to its 20-day moving average. It briefly closed above the 65,000 resistance level for one day before falling back below it, and now carries a DeMark nine exhaustion signal at that same resistance. Volume has dropped well below its moving average, though a bullish RSI divergence on the weekly timeframe remains intact. Chris Bullock is not yet convinced Bitcoin has enough short-term strength to sustain a move higher, and sees a realistic path to the lower fifties within the next two to three months. A mean reversion to the 20-day moving average does not invalidate the thesis of a further leg down, and holding the current level through October without a spike down would be unusual.

The CoinMarketCap alt season index sits at 46 out of 100, meaning 46 of the top 100 altcoins have outpaced Bitcoin over the last 90 days, with smaller altcoins leading rather than top-ten names. Bitcoin dominance had a sharp flush and has leveled off, while others dominance has been steadily climbing. Ethereum only mean reverted to its 20-day moving average and remains far from key horizontal levels, and Solana is in a similar position despite healthy DEX volume and rising ETF inflows. Bullock said he cannot recommend selling Solana to buy Hyperliquid right now and holds Solana as his second largest personal position, but he believes Hyperliquid has a larger addressable market because traditional finance is exponentially bigger than Solana's current activity, and expects HYPE to eventually flip Solana's market cap though timing is uncertain.

Hyperliquid generated over one billion dollars in trading volume on day one of the SpaceX IPO and has become the platform of choice for high-demand events including oil, gold, silver, and anticipated Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs. If ongoing US regulatory negotiations confirm legal access to Hyperliquid perpetuals, the HYPE token could reach 300 dollars, roughly a 5x from current price, while still carrying a market cap below Binance's current level. Technically, Hyperliquid received a DeMark thirteen exhaustion signal on June 4th, bottomed on June 11th, and has since heavily outpaced Bitcoin, but volume has tailed off, RSI has rolled over, and a bearish divergence is present. Bullock would not go underweight given the fundamental catalysts, and notes a DeMark five setup suggests it could run somewhat longer.

Gido, described as the largest liquid staking protocol for Ethereum, is up 153 percent in the last 90 days and has broken above its 200-day moving average, which is unusual for most crypto assets this year. Much of the short-term price action is driven by a finite promotional campaign through BitGit offering elevated yields, and Bullock is taking a wait-and-see approach pending confirmation of a separate buyback mechanism, which would have more staying power than the promotion alone.

Injective gained approximately 3,400 percent at its 2023 peak but has declined continuously since. It recently completed mainnet upgrades improving utility for perpetuals, stablecoins, and real-world asset tokenization, accrues fees back to token holders, and is near its 200-day moving average, but still lacks significant real-world usage and is on the watch list rather than a buy. Aerodrome introduced a predictive liquidity allocation model that sparked a rally above its 200-day moving average, but RSI has peaked, moving averages remain flat or pointed downward, and a DeMark nine signal makes chasing the current price risky. DEXE trades above its prior October high but shows a bearish RSI divergence and does not generate meaningful revenue or return value to token holders, making the price action suspect.

SPX was recently listed on Bithumb and Upbit, the two largest Korean centralized exchanges, and a whale opened a 10x long position worth approximately 1.7 million dollars notional on Hyperliquid. Stellar Lumens has real institutional partnerships including MoneyGram, Franklin Templeton, and WisdomTree, but does not generate significant fee revenue accruing to holders and is described as mimetic, suitable only for small speculative positions targeting periodic large rallies. Ondo looks better than many altcoins technically but faces significant token unlock overhang that poses a risk to price appreciation. JST has trended up approximately 2x on the year while most assets are down, but has been largely sideways for two to three months and may be difficult for Western investors to access given the Tron ecosystem.

Bullock noted that narrative rotation is easy to identify in retrospect but FOMO makes it difficult to act on in real time, and that gradually reducing a position over weeks is preferable to an all-or-nothing rotation, since capitulating on an asset and rotating often coincides with the original asset reversing upward and leaving the trader worse off.