Why Bitcoin Still Can’t Catch a Bid?| Trading The Markets w/ Kris Bullock & Bijan Maleki

Bitcoin's technical picture remains fragile. The weekly chart shows multiple wicks below a key support-resistance line without a clean close beneath it, and a bullish RSI divergence has weakened considerably. A bottoming flag signal from the Trading Alpha indicator suite is unconfirmed because neither required subsequent candle has closed above the flag's highest point. Kris Bullock sees a real possibility of price declining into the 50s and expects continued chop through at least September and October regardless of whether the key level breaks.

Global liquidity remains in a broader downtrend despite a short-term bounce, with higher timeframe rates of change still pointing lower. The dollar bouncing off its 10-day moving average adds pressure given its inverse relationship with liquidity. The VIX settling back to around 15 to 16 from the low 20s, stable credit spreads, and leveling real rates have made financial conditions slightly less restrictive than the prior week, but the macro backdrop is not yet supportive of a sustained move higher.

Bitcoin ETF holdings have fallen to their lowest level in roughly a year, with total ETF volume dipping below total Bitcoin held in corporate treasuries for the first time since the chart was created, effectively giving back a full year of ETF accumulation. Strategy has continued buying, so aggregate institutional holdings have only retreated a few months in price terms. Bullock frames the ETF capitulation as consistent with a bottoming phase pattern and a necessary condition before a bottom can be confirmed, not as a signal that a bottom has already occurred.

The Clarity Act is reportedly being pushed into 2027. Bullock puts the odds of passage this year at roughly a coin flip and notes that even if it passes it would primarily make the environment more investable for institutions rather than immediately injecting retail liquidity or triggering a new bull market.

Among individual assets, Hyperliquid is the strongest in the top 10 with a neutral rather than outright negative signal, while Solana shows green candles and a green track line but has a history of breaking back down after similar setups. Aerodrome, the DEX running on Base chain in partnership with Coinbase, is above its track line and outpacing most of the market. Venice received a new funding round at a one billion dollar valuation generating roughly 20 to 30 million in new investment and is considered a real-revenue asset, though it is below its track line and showing red dots that often precede candles turning red. XRP is at 1.05, down 72 percent from its all-time high of 3.65 set last year, is setting lower lows, and looks technically worse than Ethereum, Solana, and Sui. The XRP to Bitcoin ratio has faced strong resistance at a multi-year level it lost in the 2019 bear market and failed to reclaim in this cycle.

Circle's weekly chart shows a red candle for the first time in its indicator history alongside red dots and a red track line, and after briefly confirming a daily bottoming signal it broke back below that level within days. Bijan Maleki noted that despite stablecoins representing one of the clearest product-market fits in blockchain, investing in Circle has not effectively captured that value because its price behaves like a meme coin and moves largely in line with Bitcoin. Coinbase is down approximately 66 percent from its peak and Bullock characterized it as a boom and bust stock whose revenues will ultimately move with the crypto cycle regardless of its diversified streams including institutional holdings, ETFs, treasury yields, its stake in Circle, trading fees, retail, custody, and staking. He added that a 66 percent drawdown disqualifies it as a low volatility way to gain crypto exposure. Maleki noted that Coinbase is planning to offer perpetuals trading and already operates prediction markets, and said he is adding the stock to his watch list as a potential buy once he feels more confident in an uptick.

Bullock and Maleki discussed the possibility that a black swan event could occur within the next one to four months and serve as a mechanical catalyst for a final capitulation low, consistent with patterns seen in previous cycles and citing the FTX collapse at the end of 2022 as an example. They acknowledged this cycle could avoid such an event and framed any potential black swan as a buying opportunity, while noting that an event involving loss of customer funds would still be a harmful outcome. Michael Saylor was mentioned speculatively as a possible source of a future black swan event.