The Onchain Equity Boom

On-chain equities were trading more spot volume than meme coins on Solana at the time of recording, with tokenized asset volume approaching nearly 20 percent of Solana spot volume while memes sat at around 10 to 15 percent. Solana accounted for approximately 1.4 billion dollars in weekly tokenized spot equity volume, representing 98 percent of total on-chain spot equity volume across all chains. This activity was driven by only three stock products from Backpack and some volume from X Stocks, particularly the SPY product, with SpaceX, Micron, and Sandisk among the tokenized names. Micron traded approximately 30 million dollars in volume on the day of its earnings release.

Backpack creates tokenized equities that are one-for-one fungible with real-world shares, while X Stocks uses a Swiss tracker certificate structure that makes token holders creditors to the issuer rather than shareholders, though still providing one-to-one equity exposure. Backpack's legal structure allows users to move between the on-chain token and a brokerage account without incurring a taxable event, which matters more for market makers and liquidity than for everyday users. The SpaceX tokenization caused a large spike in day-one and week-one trading volume, with proper market makers including Zero Fi, Terrestrial, and Goon Fi accounting for approximately 80 to 90 percent of Backpack SpaceX trading volume. Pool model provider Meteora maintained around 10 to 20 percent, partly because professional market makers were more passive at launch due to uncertainty. Pool models pick up volume during nighttime and weekends when oracle pricing quality is lower, while professional market makers lead during regular market hours and can pull quotes instantly, leaving no resting orders otherwise.

Demand for on-chain equities existed before recent launches and supply of the product was the constraint, not lack of demand. Spot equities in compliant form could not have existed before the more positive regulatory climate that emerged around 2024, as spot tokenization required more regulatory groundwork than perps. On Hyperliquid, equity and commodity markets rose from roughly two to five percent of volume and open interest to approximately 40 percent within a single quarter. Weekly perpetual futures equity volumes on chain are at all-time highs at approximately 11 billion dollars last week, with SpaceX alone accounting for roughly four billion dollars in weekly equity perp volume. Within one year, tokenized equities could become the majority share of Solana spot volume, though the current bull market in on-chain equities is partly explained by a simultaneous broader bull market in equities and AI names.

There are currently no legitimate sophisticated trading front ends on Solana serving equity flow. JTX is targeting a July release for a platform comparable to a Bloomberg terminal with advanced order types and better execution, built by a team with quantitative finance backgrounds. In past Solana trading cycles the first mover to a new product trend typically captured a majority of market share within five to six months, suggesting JTX could dominate on-chain equity trading if it launches first. However, Jupiter will be much harder to displace than expected given their strong team and historical dominance, and user behavior is very hard to change. Phantom is actively pushing users toward equity trading by sending notifications about earnings events and integrating Hyperliquid perps. Backpack is an obvious play on on-chain equities as the exchange where one-for-one fungible equities are traded, though token economics and tokenholder rights are described as unclear. Jito is identified as a play on on-chain equity volume growth given its monetization of a clip of DEX volume, though it has already made a significant rally. Raydium is priced near 2022 lows after losing meme coin volume share, yet tokenized assets have already surpassed memes in daily revenue on Raydium, and fee compression on equity trading could offset volume growth given that all-time revenues were heavily boosted by meme coin fees.

Bitcoin made new range lows beneath 60,000 and stretched down to 75,000 at the time of recording. A key uncertainty is whether Strategy will unload equity below a net asset value ratio of 1 to fund STRK dividends or sell significant Bitcoin to repay STRK obligations, with Carlos noting that a large Bitcoin sale by Strategy would likely mark a capitulatory near-term bottom. Strategy's perpetual preferred STRK raised the company's cost of capital significantly, never matures, and was trading at approximately 75, implying a 14 to 15 percent effective yield versus the 11.5 percent dividend yield on par value of 100. STRK outstanding supply has grown from roughly one billion a year ago to over 10 billion, and Strategy faces large convertible note cliffs in 2027 and beyond that newer entrants like Bitmine do not face. Bitmine was described as better positioned because staking yield on Ethereum provides income to support a preferred instrument.

The NASDAQ-Bitcoin pair weekly RSI is at its most overbought level ever recorded, and historically when this RSI exceeds 80 it coincides with a high time frame cycle low in Bitcoin and favorable Bitcoin returns over the following two years. Passage of the Clarity Act would allow large institutional players to engage with on-chain markets, and institutional players are considered more likely to trade tokenized equities than meme coins, providing more sustainable activity levels that would be positive for Solana valuation at current multiples.